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Russia’s oil production is recovering… but the worst is yet to come, energy company warns – Executive Digest

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Russia's oil production is recovering... but the worst is yet to come, energy company warns – Executive Digest

The huge list of sanctions imposed on Russia since it invaded Russia on Feb. 24 does not appear to have done much harm to the country led by Vladimir Putin. However, the worst is yet to come.

This is reported by Rystad Energy, an energy company based in Oslo, who explains that while Russia’s oil production is expected to remain high until the end of the summer, it is forecast to decline thereafter due to a recession in the national economy.

“The country has been actively increasing oil production in June and July after a significant drop of 1 million barrels per day in April, with the total volume in July almost recovering to the level observed before the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in late February. This strong increase was mainly driven by an increase in oil refining volumes, while crude oil exports declined after hitting record levels of over 5 million barrels per day in April and May. communiqué.

As such, Rystad presents a new estimate for average Russian oil production in 2022 of 9.6 million bpd, up 200,000 bpd from June forecasts.

However, “a looming European Union (EU) embargo on imports, combined with domestic economic problems, means Russia is facing major headwinds.”

“The Russian extractive sector has recovered, but this stability is short-term. Domestic consumption helped fill this gap during the peak season, but external demand has declined, creating problems later on. The next EU embargo remains an unknown factor, when and where it will have an impact is not yet clear, but it will accelerate the fall expected this fall,” said Daria Melnik, senior analyst at Rystad Energy.

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Economy

Economic situation ‘will get worse before it gets better’: IMF director warns

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Economic situation 'will get worse before it gets better': IMF director warns

Kristalina Georgieva admits that the war in Ukraine violated the forecasts of the International Monetary Fund

The Director General of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Thursday that the global economic situation, aggravated rising inflation “it will still get worse before it gets better”, acknowledging that the invasion of Ukraine undermined the organization’s predictions.

Speaking at Georgetown University in Washington DC, Kristalina Georgieva said he thought the situation would “get worse before it gets better”.

“Uncertainty is very high,” he said, highlighting the effects of the war, noting that the pandemic “hasn’t gone away yet” and adding that “the risks associated with financial stability are growing.”

The IMF’s director-general said the organization had again lowered its forecasts for the global economy in 2023, projecting four billion euros of lower economic growth through 2026.

Georgieva also revealed that the institution had already cut its global growth forecast three times and now expects 3.2% this year and 2.9% in 2023.

The IMF Director General said that the situation could be resolved by three priorities for the economies, calling, firstly, for measures to reduce inflation, preventing it from “fixing” at current levels. However, these efforts must be balanced, he said, because otherwise they could plunge “many countries into a protracted recession.”

“Central banks must continue to respond,” he said, “even if the economy slows down.”

The second priority, Georgieva said, includes fiscal measures that protect “the most vulnerable families and businesses,” warning that these measures must be “very targeted” and urging countries “not to subsidize the rich.” The IMF Director General also warned of the negative effects of universal price controls.

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Finally, Georgieva stressed the importance of supporting emerging market and developing countries.

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Banco de Portugal is revisiting high inflation this year to 7.8%. The economy grows until the end of the year, but will stop in 2023

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Banco de Portugal is revisiting high inflation this year to 7.8%.  The economy grows until the end of the year, but will stop in 2023

The Bank of Portugal revised upwards by 1.9 percentage points (pp) its inflation forecast for this year to 7.8%, the highest since 1993, reflecting growing external pressure on prices.

In its October economic bulletin released today, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) predicts that the harmonized consumer price index will hit 7.8% this year. upward revision from 5.9% forecast in Junebut still below the eurozone.

The regulator explains that inflationary pressures remain high in the second half of the year despite some signs of easing, which it estimates will see the rate stay above 9% during this period, peaking in the third quarter (9.9%) . 5%) and slightly reduced by the end of the year.

On the economic front, the BdP improved its growth outlook by 0.4 percentage points this year. to 6.7%, signaling a recovery from pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter but a subsequent slowdown that will be reflected in 2023.

In the October Economic Bulletin, released today, the organization, led by Mario Centeno, presents only forecasts for this year, but points to the impact of the slowdown in economic growth for 2023 recorded from the second quarter onwards.

“The negative effects of Russian military aggression in Ukraine have intensified over the course of the year, which suggests a relative stabilization of activity from the second quarter onwards. These effects will be more pronounced in 2023, foreseeing a significant slowdown in growth compared to 2022, with a domino effect of over 3.9 p.p. [pontos percentuais] up to 0.5 p.p. ”, it can be read.

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However, for this year, the growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) has been revised upward by 0.4 percentage points. up 6.7% from June, with the Portuguese economy “benefiting from a recovery in tourism and private consumption”.

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Pilots offer TAP the same logic of fleet renewal to restore working conditions – Breaking News

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Pilots offer TAP the same logic of fleet renewal to restore working conditions - Breaking News

In a statement sent to members, to which Lusa had access, the Civil Aviation Pilots Union (SPAC) cites the adage “Caesar’s wife is not enough to be serious, she must look serious” to criticize the TAP option.

“Following the justification rationale from those who choose to purchase cars during this very challenging time, which is based on miraculous savings, we offer the same “spend more to save” logic to restore dignity. workers,” the union said in a statement.

This is the news, reported by TVI/CNN Portugal and Away portal, that TAP has ordered a new fleet of BMW cars for administration and managers, replacing Peugeot cars.

In the memo, SPAC emphasizes that “while some are undergoing brutal pay cuts, while layoffs are still ongoing and quality of life depends on others, at the same time, the fleet of leadership positions is being revamped.” arguing that “the existence of social justice is indispensable for the existence of social justice.”

In this context, he believes that the “new attitude” to “expenses” should affect pilots when working conditions are restored.

“If this does not happen, we will be very surprised and will be forced to believe in the hypothesis that the TAP administration either does not want to use financial surpluses to fairly replace the working conditions of workers, or there is no financial surplus and this renewal of the fleet was paid for by reducing the wages of workers,” the statement says.

TAP claims that the renewal of the fleet for the administration and managers saves 630 thousand euros annually, justifying that the decision was based on this consideration while respecting the contracts.

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“The Board wishes to clarify that TAP has a corporate fleet for administration and directors, which is in an operational ‘lease’ mode. With the option we have made, we are saving up to 630,000 euros annually if we kept the cars we have today,” TAP said in an internal statement, which Lusa had access to.

TAP justifies this by saying that 50 vehicles were at stake, for which a tender was held for the market, and six organizations were invited to participate in the Portuguese market.

“The offer with the lowest price has been selected, with a monthly income of 500 euros. For reference, other offers submitted by TAP with a more competitive cost included a monthly rent of 750 euros,” the company’s executive committee explained in a statement.

Also today, the National Union of Civil Aviation Flight Personnel (SNPVAC) said in a statement that Lusa had access to that the TAP fleet renewal causes “a lot of shame on the part of others”, given that if it is not a sign of willingness to raise crew salaries, it is “shameful » a management act.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, also reacted to the news today, pointing out to the Portuguese airline a “problem of common sense”.

“I have already spoken about several public organizations in the past, about the distribution of dividends and about wages, and I understand that when you are in a difficult period, efforts must be made to set an example of containment,” Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa defended.

According to the President of the Republic, it is understandable that companies bear the costs, but he defended the need to “have common sense” when the country and the world are going through a “difficult period.”

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