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Political sponsorship does not provide high vote transfer

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Political sponsorship does not provide high vote transfer

Lookalikes and political sponsorship are common in all elections. It is normal for candidates to support each other in order to be able to split the votes. But voice transmission is not always automatic and works. An example of this is Minas Gerais. Of the governors elected since 2002, only Fernando Pimentel (PT) in 2014 received the direct support of an elected president in this election, in the case of Dilma Rousseff (PT).

So far in this year’s elections, the two leaders of the presidential polls, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), have candidates for the government of Minas, Alexandre Calil (PSD) and Carlos Vian (PL). .), respectively. However, neither the one nor the other, as recent studies have shown DATE TIMEstill managed to convert sponsor support into a specific vote to boost voting.

For the Graduate School of Propaganda and Marketing (ESPM) professor and political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino, the way votes are passed has changed and today “in addition to being tied to an electorally strong sponsor, it is necessary to convince the voter that he has the same ideals as at the godfather.”

“Consciousness of voters has changed. The psyche of the voter 10-15 years ago is not the same as today. Previously, they often said: “Ah, such and such a pole even chooses.” This no longer works because the voter is more critical. He needs to convince himself that the indication has the same characteristics as the indicator. The voter today understands that in order for his voice to migrate, it is not so much for the person, but for the ideals that he defends, ”explained Vitorino.

“For example, a candidate who wants to capture part of Bolsonaro’s voters will have to show himself as a conservative, opposed to the PT and theoretically defending the anti-corruption agenda. On the other hand, those who want to get Lula’s votes will have to show themselves to be more welfaristic and more progressive in matters of morality,” said the political marketing consultant.

Sociologist and director of institutional relations at the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers (Abrapel) Mauricio Garcia follows the same line as Vitorino and points out that for this association to be automatic, the campaign strategy must make this alliance credible to voters.

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“It is possible and there is a place for these associations. But you should know that during the election campaign, communication, this candidate will be presented to the population if he inspires confidence. In theory, “positions” are elected, now it is necessary to show who this position is, whether this position is reliable, whether there is a point in this union, or the post will not simply be “mandatory,” he said.

Strategies

last search DATE TIME, published last Monday (25), pointed to a serious problem for the former mayor of Belo Horizonte, Alexander Kalil (SDP). Whoever has the support of former President Lula, who leads the presidential vote in the state, need to convert PT support to specific vote.

With the support of Lula, Kalil overtakes Romeu Zema (Novo), who, with the support of Felipe D’Avila (Novo), falls from 48.3% of the vote to 27.5%. However, it is worth noting that in the stimulated study, when alliances were not informed by respondents, Zema easily stays in the lead and wins in the first round when only valid votes count..

And precisely in terms of what political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino pointed out, it seems that Kalil’s campaign is working to get Lula’s votes in the state. According to a poll conducted by the report at 5:47 pm last Thursday (28), Kalil has posted 66 posts since the publication that officially announced the alliance between him and Lula on May 19. Of the 66 publications, 34 refer to the PT or their union, that is, slightly more than half. The content of the posts is mostly speech like: “I’m with Lula, because he, like me, cares about people.”

According to election researcher Mauricio Garcia, while polls still don’t show this automatic association between Lula and Kalil, it tends to be easier as there is no other name in the state that can compete with Kalil in this area.

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“The alliance between Lula and Kalil seems clearer to me. We know there are old Kali statements criticizing Lulu and PT, but it will be up to the campaign to be able to argue with the voter that this was a different moment. But theoretically, there is an empty seat in Lula’s electorate for Kalil, because there is no other candidate in Minas who has a clearer connection with the PT,” Garcia explained.

Senator Carlos Viana (PL) also has his candidacy for governor backed by a presidential candidate. When voters are told that he has the support of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), his voting intentions rise by 12.3 percentage points, from 3.7% to 16%, according to Data Tempo.

In Viana’s case, the main challenge is to get Bolsonaro to actually participate in his campaign and make public statements and gestures of support, something that hasn’t happened since the senator left the MDB in April to become a candidate. for the government from Minas. Viana’s name has not yet been officially announced as a candidate. The PL left the decision to the party’s National Executive Body.

The official launch of the campaign will give a real measure of support

Abrapel Director of Institutional Relations Mauricio Garcia says that only with the start of the official campaign, from August 16, especially with free time for elections on radio and television, on August 26, it will be possible to have a greater dimension if this support influences the choice of voters.

“With the campaign, with the freedom of advertising and marketing that the candidates will have, it is only in the campaign that the effect of this support can be measured, in fact. Because this is the only way to have more room for crystallization in the mind of the voter to associate one candidate with another,” he said.

The profile of the current election and shorter campaign period also made such a strategy more difficult, he said.

“Today’s campaign has a shorter period, but it has the potential to work with such a strategy. Of course, depending on the communication adopted by the teams to convince voters that the alliance is credible,” explains Garcia.

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Mega-irradiation can be negative, political scientists say

If, on the one hand, support can lead to the transfer of votes, on the other hand, the supported candidate can only inherit a refusal. Here is what professor and political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino explains.

“At the moment we live, the main godparents (Lula and Bolsonaro) are rejected. So, when you stick with the godfather, you have a chance of not being like him in essence, which brings specific votes and can still inherit rejection. Using a godfather can do a lot more harm than good,” Vittorino muses.

In the state of Minas Gerais, Lula (Portugal) and Bolsonaro (Poland), despite leading the vote, are also at the top of the rejection list. While the current president leads with 43% rejection, PT has 30.1% of voters who would not vote for him at all.

For Abrapel director Mauricio Garcia, this scenario is delicate for governor Romeu Zema (Novo).

“His situation is difficult because even internally he may even want to get close to Bolsonaro, but he also knows that Bolsonaro is radioactive. If he leans too far, he can infect himself and get hurt, and he won’t be able to close the door right away if Lula wins,” he said.

“Theoretically, a candidate for the Senate is associated with a candidate for government,” says the researcher.

Mauricio Garcia, director of institutional relations at Abrapel, explains that historically state-elected senators have been linked to elected governors.

“The Senate, as a rule, is very connected with the governor. A wave of governors who end up electing senators. Lula elected numerous senators in 2010, mostly from the Northeast, but in no case was a senator or governor elected,” he explained.

“The government candidate who fires, who gets strong, also tends to pull the Senate candidate. Especially in elections where there is only one Senate, as now,” he added.

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Rodrigo Alvarez starts work on the Brazilian political scenario in El Salvador

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Bnews

Journalist and writer Rodrigo Alvarez presented on Thursday evening (18) in El Salvador his new book The Candidate is a Modern Satire. Shortly before the event, which took place at the LDM bookstore, Shopping Bela Vista, Alvarez spoke to bnews and told a little about the process of creating the work.

“The book was born in the last election, in 2018. When the results of the elections became known, I realized that there would be big changes in Brazil, that everything would be completely different, I confess, I was worried about what would happen next. and shortly after that, I came up with the idea of ​​a character that goes back to the military dictatorship, at a time when everything seemed to be going well in Brazil, everything was going very well, and the story began to take shape there, about four years ago, the character, which goes back to 1958 and ended up writing the book that way,” he said.

Alvarez says that the events of recent years have been waiting for the book. “Now recently, at the beginning of the year, at a slightly faster pace than usual, because I wanted to wait for something to happen so that the elections come closer. The book tells the story of a man from Paraiba who goes back in time and begins to live in Brazil, which seemed like a dream. Immediately after that, the book draws a parallel between the Brazil of the 50s and 60s and the Brazil of today. , which is a parallel drawn by humans.”

Blocked by Bolsonaro

Last Wednesday (17) the writer shared with his followers that he was blocked by President Jair Bolsonaro (PL). Asked by our reporter if the book was the reason, Alvarez replied that it was implied.

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“Since I never made any offense to President Bolsonaro, I can only understand that it was because of the book, because the book is very critical of the current government, the main character is very worried about everything that happens, all these attacks. about democracy., then President Bolsonaro, who does not like journalism or journalists (…). He does not like being filmed when he does not want to, he has authoritarianism inside, it seems to me that he does not like literature, especially free literature, all types of art are a means of self-expression, politics, authoritarian leaders do not like freedom of speech, self-expression, I I think that’s why Bolsonaro blocked me on the Internet, because he doesn’t want to know what I write, and he doesn’t want me to see what he writes,” he concluded.

Follow him tik tak do bnews and stay up to date with the news.

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The guest list for Moraes’ TSE inauguration has political resonance.

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published on 18.08.2022 06:00


(Credit: Antonio Augusto/Secom/TSE)

The guest list for the inauguration of Minister Alexandre de Moraes as President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) still resonates in the political arena. More than 2,000 people attended the court ceremony, cheering the magistrate’s speech in defense of the Brazilian electoral process and democracy.

For political scientists, the presence of the political, legal and diplomatic elite at the ceremony was a sign of support for electoral justice, in contrast to the attacks of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his supporters. In his speech, Moraes stressed the credibility of electronic voting machines and said that the result of the election on the same day as the election is “a cause for pride”.

The TSE President also stated that the interference of justice in the elections will be minimal, but will not allow abuse of the right to freedom of speech. However, Bolsonaro, who was present at the ceremony, did not approve of the chorus and remained motionless during the moments of applause.

Through social media yesterday afternoon, the minister once again defended Brazilian democracy. “The TSE ceremony symbolized respect for institutions as the only way to grow and strengthen the Republic and the strength of democracy, as the only political regime where all power comes from the people and which should be exercised for the good of the people,” Moraes wrote.

The inauguration was accompanied by STF ministers, former presidents, politicians, 13 ministers from the Bolsonaro government and 40 ambassadors, as well as 22 governors, the Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, and other government officials. At the same ceremony, Minister Ricardo Lewandowski was sworn in as Deputy.

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Political scientist André Rosa emphasizes that the presence of government officials is commonplace, but this event brought symbolism. “Obviously, the inauguration will be attended by the president and former presidents of the republic. But, in fact, if Bolsonaro was not present at this meeting, it would be very bad and an insult to democracy. It is also important to note that when Alexandre de Moraes speaks in support of the elections, everyone applauds except Bolsonaro,” he said.

For Nahue constitutional lawyer and political scientist Bernardo de Azevedo, the ceremony had several meanings. “Firstly, it shows the firm support of the figure of the minister himself, which may be decisive for his imposition of himself on the TS. At the same time, it supports the strong statements of the minister in defense of the electoral system. , which took on a strong tone and which, in other contexts, would be little more than a footnote in any news story about the event,” he noted.


first meeting

During his first appointment as President of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes met yesterday with the Presidents of the 27 Regional Electoral Courts (TRE). The judge stressed that he would be open to dialogue. “We are absolutely open to everyone. Alone, TSE does nothing. The TSE works together with the regional electoral courts and with all election judges,” he said.

Moraes has already said he will not let his guard down during the election period. The TSE already has a plan ready to hold the October elections with the least possible disturbance and prevent justice in case of extreme scenarios.

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In a meeting with TRE, he said it was extremely important that preventive action be taken together on Election Day. Discussions also included fighting disinformation, working with security forces, training poll workers, and changes to ballot box distribution.

The minister will command selective justice during the most troubling elections since the country’s redemocratization. He will be tasked with ensuring the fairness of the voting system, as well as dealing with the untimely behavior of Jair Bolsonaro, who claims without evidence that the previous elections were rigged.

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Evangelists are at a political peak and single out Michelle and Janya – 17.08.2022 – Poder

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Evangelists are at a political peak and single out Michelle and Janya - 17.08.2022 - Poder

With a thumbs up, the pastor of the Assembly of God in Botukatu (SP) warns that anyone who votes for Lulu (PT) is “not worthy of the Lord’s Supper.” The best thing such a believer can do is to refrain from eating bread and drinking from a cup (usually grape juice), which is a symbolic recognition of Christ’s sacrifice, he says.

“He said there in the Sarawah circle when he got popcorn on his head that ‘the demons are bothering me now’. Do you have the courage to say that you will vote for such a person?” The religious leader refers to a video from 2021 showing PT participating in a candomblé ritual. Lula never claimed to have been possessed, but walks around evangelical churches with a quote taken out of context. He said, in fact, that “Bolsonarists on social media” spread “that the devil cares about me.”

Opponents conjure up a narrative of Lula’s collusion with darkness after the first elections in newly democratized Brazil, when evangelicals began to gain prominence in the elections. The segment now reaches, in this year 2022, polarized between PT and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the pinnacle of its political activity, in a confrontation in which the first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and the sociologist Rosangela da Silva, Giagna, Squid’s wife.

The emergence of this Christian bloc in politics began in the Constituent Assembly, which formulated the Constitution of 1988. The first evangelical pew was formed there, which, in his own words, gave a “biblical ablution” to the chairman of the Constituent Assembly, Ulisse Guimarães.

“Brother, vote for brother” Josue Silvestre, a parliamentary councilor associated with another Assembly, God’s, dates back to that time. The book summarizes the new evangelical Zeitgeist: “The believer votes for the believer, because otherwise he cannot claim to be a believer,” wrote Sylvester.

“Evangelical leaders, especially Pentecostals, took advantage of the context of democratic openness to invest in political activism,” says Ricardo Mariano, a USP sociology professor who coined the term “neo-Pentecostals” in his master’s thesis in the 1990s. “Since the 1970s, pastors have been harassed by candidates who, when elected, often broke their promises. This, they said, encouraged them to nominate their own candidates.”

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Churches began, in Mariano’s words, to “strategically resort to the victimized fate of a persecuted religious minority, declaring the urgent need to protect religious freedom, Christian morality, and their own interests from attacks by perceived enemies through the election of church representatives.”

An example of a leap year when a pastor backed Lulu against Fernando Collor in 1989, Silas Malafaia says that as a child he heard pastors preach “that politics and television are the work of the devil.” He quotes the biblical passage “Give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and to God what is God’s” to explain why “I could not, thinking with my buttons, understand the reason for this.”

As a televangelist he worked “to give political consciousness to evangelists”. The old pastoral guard, in the words of today’s Bolsonarist Malafay, “only preached heaven and eternal life, as if we were not in an earthly context.”

Fake old news, re-released in 2022, is the idea that PT will close churches. Already in the 1989 elections, there was talk that Lula would do this if she won in collusion with the Catholic Church to eradicate the religious freedom of the evangelicals.

On the eve of the first round, the faithful of the Catholic Church sang “devil on a tightrope, let’s collorir, let’s collorir” at a vigil led by Bishop Edir Macedo, who wore a shirt with the name Collor.

The one wearing the shirt in 2010 was MP Marco Feliciano (PL-SP). It read: “I am a Christian and I vote for Dilma.” In the service, he made a mea culpa: “Like a parrot, I repeated: PT is going to close the churches in Brazil. […] Eight years ago, Lula was a demon. But Lula was chosen and not a single church was closed.”

Feliciano and Macedo were with Dilma Rousseff in an argument that was won by PT. Today, the Episcopal Church is campaigning that the Christian Left is an anomaly, and the MP reiterated that the PT is a threat to churches. Closing temples during the pandemic for health reasons helped inflate this “Lula risk.”

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Feliciano justifies his change of position as follows: PT is “committed to the principles of identity” and one way to silence churches is to shut them up. He says he thinks in the PT government, “laws that prevent pastors from saying that homosexuality is a sin, or that force believers into same-sex ‘marriages’ will swarm.” Lula’s campaign shows no signs of this happening.

Playing with moral pride is a resource that paid off for Bolsonaro in 2018,” recalls Ricardo Mariano. The pastors accused Fernando Haddad, the PT presidential candidate “participating in the anti-PT wave”, of being “an agent of cultural Marxism, a culture of death.” [aborto] and gender ideology,” he says.

In this election, the Catholic Bolsonaro has put an evangelical woman at the forefront of his campaign, whom he married in 2013 with Malafaia’s blessing. Michelle is seen as a more sugary antithesis to the president’s rugged image, which would be well liked by women, 58% of evangelical voters and her husband’s electoral wing. And it turned out better than the order, according to the allies.

The first lady can speak the language of the evangelists, said Apostle Cesar Augusto, leader of the Fonte da Vida church. “She does not pretend during the campaign, as we see with many politicians. We know the difference between authenticity and pretense.”

Malafaya repeats the good impression. “Michelle is known for being a woman, an evangelist who knows how to position herself, looks good,” she says. “And after seeing her husband being killed, like a macho who can’t stand a woman, my friend, a woman has panache, she began to open her mouth.”

Janja, on the other hand, is PT’s bet to lure female voters into a duel between two men who have entered the popular imagination as “macho goats.” However, pastors from the Bolonarist orbit believe that the sociologist has a religious responsibility.

Not only does she exude an image of an independent woman that brings her closer to the feminism rejected by many evangelicals, but she also posted a photo of herself posing next to images of orishas from Afro-Brazilian religions. Here’s how he signed it: “I miss white and twists, turns, turns…”.

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Michelle herself played a recording of the Candomblé leaders showering Lulu with popcorn. But not because of religious tolerance: the video associates this religion with darkness.

Lula’s headquarters is trying to run after Bolsonaro to prevent Bolsonaro from further distancing himself from the former president in an evangelical field that represents 1 in 4 voters.

Lula tested vaccines against a minefield that had been prepared for him to avoid regaining the evangelical voices that once belonged to him, like when he said at the start of his campaign that Bolsonaro was “demons-possessed.” He also brought Pastor Paulo Marcelo to his team, who allied with PT and was a member of the Gideões Missionários da Última Hora, a Pentecostal congress that put forward names like Feliciano, with whom he is friends to this day.

Paulo Marcelo defends a tactic now resurfacing in PT members’ speeches: reminding evangelists that Lula did a lot of good for the group, such as when he approved the law that established the March for Jesus National Day. The former president, he said, also deserves credit for better times. “The question is very simple: what has improved in your life? How much income did your church have at the time of Lula and Dilma, and how much do you have today?”

Something was already recommended in 2013 by Marcello Crivella, nephew of Edir Macedo, who at the time was Dilma’s Minister of Fisheries. At an event with pastors, today’s Bolsonarian Crivella stated: “The President said: We are no longer going to exploit the people. And when there is more money, the evangelical people are not the people who go to the boutique to buy branded clothes. people do? He goes to church more because he can afford the subway and train. He gives more offerings, more tithes, more charity.”

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