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Political sponsorship does not provide high vote transfer

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Political sponsorship does not provide high vote transfer

Lookalikes and political sponsorship are common in all elections. It is normal for candidates to support each other in order to be able to split the votes. But voice transmission is not always automatic and works. An example of this is Minas Gerais. Of the governors elected since 2002, only Fernando Pimentel (PT) in 2014 received the direct support of an elected president in this election, in the case of Dilma Rousseff (PT).

So far in this year’s elections, the two leaders of the presidential polls, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), have candidates for the government of Minas, Alexandre Calil (PSD) and Carlos Vian (PL). .), respectively. However, neither the one nor the other, as recent studies have shown DATE TIMEstill managed to convert sponsor support into a specific vote to boost voting.

For the Graduate School of Propaganda and Marketing (ESPM) professor and political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino, the way votes are passed has changed and today “in addition to being tied to an electorally strong sponsor, it is necessary to convince the voter that he has the same ideals as at the godfather.”

“Consciousness of voters has changed. The psyche of the voter 10-15 years ago is not the same as today. Previously, they often said: “Ah, such and such a pole even chooses.” This no longer works because the voter is more critical. He needs to convince himself that the indication has the same characteristics as the indicator. The voter today understands that in order for his voice to migrate, it is not so much for the person, but for the ideals that he defends, ”explained Vitorino.

“For example, a candidate who wants to capture part of Bolsonaro’s voters will have to show himself as a conservative, opposed to the PT and theoretically defending the anti-corruption agenda. On the other hand, those who want to get Lula’s votes will have to show themselves to be more welfaristic and more progressive in matters of morality,” said the political marketing consultant.

Sociologist and director of institutional relations at the Brazilian Association of Electoral Researchers (Abrapel) Mauricio Garcia follows the same line as Vitorino and points out that for this association to be automatic, the campaign strategy must make this alliance credible to voters.

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“It is possible and there is a place for these associations. But you should know that during the election campaign, communication, this candidate will be presented to the population if he inspires confidence. In theory, “positions” are elected, now it is necessary to show who this position is, whether this position is reliable, whether there is a point in this union, or the post will not simply be “mandatory,” he said.

Strategies

last search DATE TIME, published last Monday (25), pointed to a serious problem for the former mayor of Belo Horizonte, Alexander Kalil (SDP). Whoever has the support of former President Lula, who leads the presidential vote in the state, need to convert PT support to specific vote.

With the support of Lula, Kalil overtakes Romeu Zema (Novo), who, with the support of Felipe D’Avila (Novo), falls from 48.3% of the vote to 27.5%. However, it is worth noting that in the stimulated study, when alliances were not informed by respondents, Zema easily stays in the lead and wins in the first round when only valid votes count..

And precisely in terms of what political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino pointed out, it seems that Kalil’s campaign is working to get Lula’s votes in the state. According to a poll conducted by the report at 5:47 pm last Thursday (28), Kalil has posted 66 posts since the publication that officially announced the alliance between him and Lula on May 19. Of the 66 publications, 34 refer to the PT or their union, that is, slightly more than half. The content of the posts is mostly speech like: “I’m with Lula, because he, like me, cares about people.”

According to election researcher Mauricio Garcia, while polls still don’t show this automatic association between Lula and Kalil, it tends to be easier as there is no other name in the state that can compete with Kalil in this area.

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“The alliance between Lula and Kalil seems clearer to me. We know there are old Kali statements criticizing Lulu and PT, but it will be up to the campaign to be able to argue with the voter that this was a different moment. But theoretically, there is an empty seat in Lula’s electorate for Kalil, because there is no other candidate in Minas who has a clearer connection with the PT,” Garcia explained.

Senator Carlos Viana (PL) also has his candidacy for governor backed by a presidential candidate. When voters are told that he has the support of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), his voting intentions rise by 12.3 percentage points, from 3.7% to 16%, according to Data Tempo.

In Viana’s case, the main challenge is to get Bolsonaro to actually participate in his campaign and make public statements and gestures of support, something that hasn’t happened since the senator left the MDB in April to become a candidate. for the government from Minas. Viana’s name has not yet been officially announced as a candidate. The PL left the decision to the party’s National Executive Body.

The official launch of the campaign will give a real measure of support

Abrapel Director of Institutional Relations Mauricio Garcia says that only with the start of the official campaign, from August 16, especially with free time for elections on radio and television, on August 26, it will be possible to have a greater dimension if this support influences the choice of voters.

“With the campaign, with the freedom of advertising and marketing that the candidates will have, it is only in the campaign that the effect of this support can be measured, in fact. Because this is the only way to have more room for crystallization in the mind of the voter to associate one candidate with another,” he said.

The profile of the current election and shorter campaign period also made such a strategy more difficult, he said.

“Today’s campaign has a shorter period, but it has the potential to work with such a strategy. Of course, depending on the communication adopted by the teams to convince voters that the alliance is credible,” explains Garcia.

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Mega-irradiation can be negative, political scientists say

If, on the one hand, support can lead to the transfer of votes, on the other hand, the supported candidate can only inherit a refusal. Here is what professor and political marketing consultant Marcelo Vitorino explains.

“At the moment we live, the main godparents (Lula and Bolsonaro) are rejected. So, when you stick with the godfather, you have a chance of not being like him in essence, which brings specific votes and can still inherit rejection. Using a godfather can do a lot more harm than good,” Vittorino muses.

In the state of Minas Gerais, Lula (Portugal) and Bolsonaro (Poland), despite leading the vote, are also at the top of the rejection list. While the current president leads with 43% rejection, PT has 30.1% of voters who would not vote for him at all.

For Abrapel director Mauricio Garcia, this scenario is delicate for governor Romeu Zema (Novo).

“His situation is difficult because even internally he may even want to get close to Bolsonaro, but he also knows that Bolsonaro is radioactive. If he leans too far, he can infect himself and get hurt, and he won’t be able to close the door right away if Lula wins,” he said.

“Theoretically, a candidate for the Senate is associated with a candidate for government,” says the researcher.

Mauricio Garcia, director of institutional relations at Abrapel, explains that historically state-elected senators have been linked to elected governors.

“The Senate, as a rule, is very connected with the governor. A wave of governors who end up electing senators. Lula elected numerous senators in 2010, mostly from the Northeast, but in no case was a senator or governor elected,” he explained.

“The government candidate who fires, who gets strong, also tends to pull the Senate candidate. Especially in elections where there is only one Senate, as now,” he added.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Politics

Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.

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Goal.com

The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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Politics

The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022

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Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

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Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

See more news, photos and videos at www.ansabrasil.com.br.

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