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Elected on the wave of 2018, Soraya Tronicke increases political capital and goes to the presidency.

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Elected on the wave of 2018, Soraya Tronicke increases political capital and goes to the presidency.

In 2018, 49-year-old Soraya Vieira Tronicke used the conservative and anti-corruption wave along with Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to get into the Senate, after only 3 years, the senator from Mato Grosso do Sul has increased her political capital enough to start working. Tuesday (2 August 22), presidential candidate of União Brasil.


The senator will now be battling for Jair Bolsonaro’s already few votes against the far-right electorate.


She will replace federal deputy Luciano Bivar, national president of the acronym, who has withdrawn from the race and will seek re-election in Pernambuco.


The parliamentarian turned out to be an option to unite the party after Bolsonaro vetoed the name of former health minister Luis Enrique Mandetta (União Brasil), according to sources. After vetoing it, he kept the project in order to run for senator for Mato Grosso do Sul.


Luis Enrique Mandetta is the Senate candidate for the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, with Senator Soraya Tronicke as its leader. Photo: Tero Queiroz


“Pernambuco called Luciano Bivar, as the party called me,” Soraya said at a press conference on the confirmation of the presidential candidacy. “While others will fight, we will build something,” the senator assured.


União Brasil has the longest time on TV and radio during elections and the largest share of the electoral fund, which is expected to be 782 million reais.


If she does have a project, she will have enough time to present it to the voter.

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In addition to Soraya, another senator from Mato Grosso do Sul, Simona Tebet (MDB), who also announced her candidacy on Tuesday (2 August 22), will also participate in the 2022 elections.



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Inauguration of Alexandre de Moraes puts TSE at the center of the political game

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Alexandre de Moraes
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The property of ministers or the presidents of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) or the Higher Electoral Court (TSE) is a common and traditionally bureaucratic act. But the inauguration of minister Alexandre de Moraes as president of the TSE was something very different. The most popular inauguration in the history of the courts was a political event that rivaled two others that really should be the biggest news of the day: the start of the electoral campaigns and the first actions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and current representative Jair Bolsonaro as candidates.

Alexandre de Moraes, in his speech, sent clear signals to the guest of honor at the inauguration, President Jair Bolsonaro. Defending democracy, the democratic rule of law, the regularity of electoral fairness, the transparency of the electoral process, the integrity and success of electronic voting machines, the limitation of hate speech or speeches against democratic institutions, Moraes has come under all the usual criticism. addressed to the government and the President of the Republic.

By saying, for example, that freedom of speech has limits and that the constitutional order does not tolerate hate speech or threats of rupture to “establish arbitration”, Moraes contradicted Bolsonaro, who used the freedom argument several times to spread the word, ideas incompatible with the Constitution. And whoever wrote this recently was not a member of the opposition or a regular government critic, but Deputy Attorney General for Elections Paulo Gonet Branco when he was filing against Bolsonaro for telling ambassadors about electronic voting machines.

Moraes once again promised a ruthless fight against false speeches and false news. And it is already known that this action will be especially tough against speeches attacking the legitimacy of the electoral process and against electronic voting machines. Moraes said that “the intervention of the TSE will be minimal, swift and merciless”. The minimum intervention is not as much up to the court, as the amount and severity of fake news will determine how much TSE has to act. But the speed and ruthlessness of punishment depend on the court.

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In recent years, speeches by TSE presidents about fighting fake news have been little more than promises, even because of the complexity of the topic. Alexander de Moraes said today, and in connection with his role as rapporteur on the investigation of fake news, that he will do everything in his power to fulfill the promise. And the precedent of State Deputy Fernando Francischini, whose mandate was withdrawn with the special commitment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes, is a sign that this time the court will really try to punish those responsible for spreading false news against the electoral system, for example.

The ceremony demonstrated the central role of the TSE in these elections. Partly because of the unfavorable policy at the moment. And this importance was confirmed by the presence of Bolsonaro, José Sarney, Lula, Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer, as well as all the ministers of the Supreme Court, 22 governors and several members of the federal government. The presence of the two main candidates for the presidency of the Republic, in addition to Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, is a clear indication of the central role of the court.

A position that the TSE has never really taken. The Court has always acted as an arbitrator that seeks to balance the dispute, which works administratively and logistically by distributing ballot boxes and organizing elections within its bureaucracy. But it has never been put as a guarantor of the process, the security of the change of power. And, in part, President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters, including the military, were elevated to this post by TSE for criticizing the electoral system, for attacking the court, for flirting with threats to break parliament. democratic rule of law, for requests to impeach Moraes, or to initiate criminal proceedings against a minister.

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If there was any false version of the political agreement made by Ciro Nogueira, Fabio Faria and Paulo Guedes with the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes’ speech showed the opposite. The absence of any mention of the military in the speech is also indicative. For those in government who have spoken of making concessions to the military, Moraes’ silence on the matter demonstrates what his advisers insistently remind him of: the military is not part of the electoral process. As Moraes’ predecessor Edson Fachin categorically stated.

Alexandre de Moraes takes over the management of the TSE, demonstrating political prestige to the court and expressing a vote of confidence in the political system. And it shows that it is becoming increasingly difficult to challenge poll results, no matter who wins in disputes across the country. But here’s a detail: when Alexandre de Moraes said that Brazil was proud of holding elections and counting votes on the same day, the guests gave him a standing ovation. Except Jair Bolsonaro, Ciro Nogueira and other members of the government.

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The beginning of the election campaign gives the market clues about the political scenario, experts say

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Sao Paulo, 16 August. The campaign period officially begins on Tuesday, and increased coverage of candidates at public events and in the media should boost polls, sharpening the lines of the picture that will be painted in the October election.

According to experts listened to by Mover, the market has not yet begun to bet on the possible outcome of the presidential race and remains in question who will win the dispute.

“Market prices point to a scenario in which Lula and Bolsonaro are tied,” said Pedro Paulo Silveira, director of asset management at Nova Futura Investimentos.

“The market has not been priced yet. It’s a little bit connected between Lula and Bolsonaro if we look at the prices of some assets, such as interest rates and the stock market outlook,” said Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Necton Investimentos.

Nexgen Capital partner Jose Cassiolato said the market sees “a tough and unpredictable election race ahead that makes it difficult to see the outcome. In addition, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic policy that will be implemented from next year.”

According to some experts, even though former PT president and Palacio do Planalto candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is leading the main polls, public stock prices prove what the market still doesn’t see clearly. In fact, President Jair Bolsonaro will be defeated in the elections.

“Looking at Petrobras in particular, it’s obvious. We can use the same reasoning for percentages and exchange rates. If the campaign shows momentum in one direction, prices will move,” commented Silveira, who believes the market will move into a “very pessimistic” mode if Lula’s candidacy demonstrates a high probability of winning. “The proposals of both are well known, and what will make the prices change is the probability of each of them winning,” he concluded.

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Perfect, however, sees opportunities in the stock market, regardless of the polls. In general, he said, if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the shares of privatized state-owned companies tend to rise in price, and if Lula wins, companies related to the domestic sector, such as retail, construction and education, should do well.

According to Cassiolato, investors should now put emotions aside in order to analyze various companies and their opportunities, taking into account, in addition to elections, the current complex international scenario.

“Operating Advantage”

This week, a pre-election poll conducted by the FSB Institute commissioned by BTG Pactual and Ipec, ex-Ibope, showed Lula’s big advantage over Bolsonaro, even after the 600 reais augmented Auxílio Brasil began to circulate.

The FSB poll even showed that Lula managed to win more votes among the beneficiaries of the social program after the increase, while Bolsonaro, whose government was responsible for expanding aid, remained at the same level of voting intention.

In the FSB’s stimulated poll, Lula won 45% of the vote in the first round, compared to 41% in the previous round on 8 August. Bolsonaro retained 34% in both polls.

In the second round of the FSB poll, Lula increased his intention to vote from 51% to 53%, and Bolsonaro from 39% to 38%.

In the IPEC poll, Lula won 44% of the vote, while Bolsonaro gained 32% in the first round. In the runoff scenario, Lula scored 51% against the current president’s 35%, 16 percentage points behind.

According to political scientist Antonio Lavareda, with the start of the election campaign, Bolsonaro will try to close the distance with his rival, using two lines of communication.

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“First, by saving Lava-Yato’s complaints to save the 2018 ‘climate’. Secondly, using the religious and value agenda, to maximize its leadership in the evangelical environment and regain 70% of the segment. who voted for him in the second round of the last election. Bolsonaro is currently preferred by 49% of voters in this profile, according to a BTG/FSB poll.

Bolsonaro should also try to capitalize on expanding aid with the approval of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment, known as PEC benefits. “The presidential campaign is betting on that,” Lavareda said.

The political scientist also recalled that Bolsonaro has a big trump card in his hands: “the advantage of the incumbent president”, that is, challenging the election in office, “which gives him control over the agenda, the social machine and the ability to ‘seduce’ slices of the government, the electorate” with social benefits .

Lula, in turn, has the advantage of her government’s collective memory. A March poll by Lavareda-led Ipespe found that 58% of Brazilian voters rated both Lula governments as excellent or good.

election campaign

Despite the strong online presence of candidates since 2021 and the importance of social media in past elections, Lavareda reminds us of the relevance of free advertising on television and radio as of August 26, and of greater coverage of candidates from now on.

“The president himself, by opting for a major party and making efforts to include other parties in his coalition, has shown that he recognizes the power of television and radio,” the political scientist argued, also mindful of the importance of numerous reports that talk about Bolsonaro’s hospitalization after a knife wounded in the 2018 campaign. “No one was more in the news than him,” he added.

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Necton’s Perfect believes that the election campaign itself should not affect market sentiment, but it will interfere with the polls, which investors are eyeing more closely.

In addition, from now on, interviews and hearings of candidates will be intensified, and the market should react to their statements. In Bolsonaro’s case, investors are watching him clash with the Supreme Electoral Court and questions regarding electronic voting machines, reports Perfect.

Cassiolato added that the negative agendas of each candidate, as identified by their opponents, will be more pronounced at the start of the election campaign, which should also come at a price and introduce volatility into the market.

Text: Stephanie Rigamonti
Editing: Gabriela Guedes
Image: Vinicius Martins/Mover
Comments: [email protected]

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An open letter to a pastor-politician – Co-authors

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An open letter to a pastor-politician - Co-authors

My dear pastor, I will probably vote for you, and not for your struggle for faith, because I adhere to a different theology, because we respect our unusual beliefs, but I will vote for you, for your social cosmic vision, solidarity and beneficial influence on people who, in my opinion, are inalienable qualities of any politician, and in this we have common interests.

However, I regret that you registered as a “pastor” in the Electoral Justice for your candidacy, because I do not vote for the pastor of the church, I vote for the politics of the society and when you use the name of the profession, nothing depends on faith, it is different from those shepherds who usurp the confessional electorate, in the manner of modern colonels and their bridle oaths.

The current candidates for the pastor of the church often gain votes among their co-religionists and sometimes swearingly promise the blessings of the church and its ministers, and sometimes even call themselves candidates of God, daring to use the name of God. as if God chose him over others, because all his children and he has no formal preferences, he will only prefer those who do good.

Calling him by the name of Peter, John, James in no way detracts from him, on the contrary, his image was built as the cornerstone of the church, which welcomed and helped people of any race, religion, like a Samaritan on the way.

If you were a “political pastor” you would not run for elections because you know that the pastor is also involved in politics to build a more just society, however, since you are a “political pastor” you should refrain from using a religious nickname. aiming at the ballot box, which, by the way, is growing every day according to the Supreme Electoral Court, so as not to confuse the divine service with the ordinary electoral, and there are those who use conscience, who say that they are the mediators of God’s work in politics, but God has not given them power of attorney and does not need representatives for this, he prefers good people in politics, even if they are atheists.

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Rogerio Silva University Professor, Ph.D. in Law and Constitutional Order (UFC). Author of the book Politics and Faith.


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