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Three very difficult months will pass from here to the elections, the political scientist believes

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Sao Paulo. General Walter Braga Netto was in the news twice this Friday (1st), both related to the October elections. First, with the release of military speeches to businessmen, to whom he would repeat boss Jair Bolsonaro’s mantra that without vote auditing, “there will be no elections,” according to Malu Gaspar, a journalist from the globe. The threat would have been made on Friday (24) and would have “embarrassed” the leaders present.

The general was also mentioned in the media for officially leaving the presidential administration, where he had been since his dismissal from the Ministry of Defense in March. He is expected to become vice-president on Bolsonaro’s list in the October elections and will be one of the campaign coordinators along with his “zero 1” son Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

Braga Netto’s new threat, though denied on the grounds that it was taken out of context, is just one of countless since 2019, uttered mostly by the head of government. Bolsonaro upped the ante last Saturday. At a religious event in Balneario Camboriu (South Carolina), he said that his “army is approaching 200 million people.” He promised that “if necessary – and it increasingly seems that it will be necessary – we will make the decisions that need to be taken.”

Is Bolsonaro constantly bluffing, threatening with power he doesn’t have? Is there a risk that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, if the current inhabitants of the Planalto Palace win the election, will refuse to transfer power, repeating Donald Trump’s coup attempt in the United States on January 6, 2021?

For political scientist Joao Roberto Martins Filho, retired professor at the Federal University of San Carlos (Ufskar), the situation of uncertainty that such speeches instill in society is largely due to the silence of the military, who allegedly would be against these anti-democratic outbursts, but are silent. “People don’t know what’s going on. They are not calming the country and will not be calming in the near future,” he says. “Surprise is part of military strategy.”

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Read Mārtiņš Filju’s RBA interview:

Are threats to the elections coming from Bolsonaro or close allies and the military like Braga Netto bravado or is there a real coup risk?

From the lips of the general who occupied the Ministry of Defense, seriously. The problem is that we don’t know what kind of support (coup attempt) the high command will have, especially in the army. Bolsonaro will appoint Braga Netto as his deputy with ulterior motives in order to have an army figure on the list. But among those soldiers who would not be as loyal to Bolsonaro as Braga Netto, someone who may have some doubts about the possibility of a coup, no one shows himself.

When it’s against the Federal Supreme Court, then they show up. Then the Minister of DefensePaulo Sergio Nogueira de Oliveira), the rest of the commanders – which is unusual – are signed together. When Siro Gomes said that the military was pandering to organized crime in the Amazon, three commanders joined him. Such statements (of the military) can be considered offensive to the armed forces, as they pose a threat to Brazilian democracy.

So, this game is a bit strange, but dangerous. It looks like they want to delay the country until the elections. Be the ones who are directly dedicated, (Augusto) Heleno, (Luis Eduardo) Ramos and Braga Netto, or the ones who occasionally send a few questionable messages.

Where are the soldiers of the Armed Forces who should be against Bolsonaro but never speak out in public?

According to sources, there were signals from the military zone that they were not going to interfere (in a coup d’etat), which is very dangerous for order, national security … But it was clear why they sent this message: because of this statement by Braga Netto, who is already trying to delegitimize the elections. But there is such a bad climate in which we do not know what is happening. And we have reason to believe that they can create problems because they turn on Bolsonaro.

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It occurred to me that they find Bolsonaro’s game very dangerous. But how do you know if this is true or a game of two tweezers, because. Piero Leirner says (“to act as a group sympathetic to a social movement, and then as a defender of the government” – according to Leirner). On the one hand, the threat of a threat, on the other, that “we will abide by the Constitution.”

If Lula wins the election, Bolsonaro will have two months to remain on the plateau and attempt a coup d’état similar to that of Donald Trump in the United States. How do you see this range?

And the role that the Army plays here has nothing to do with the Army where it actually exists to wage war. But I think you are even optimistic when you think about the situation after Lula’s victory, between the victory and the inauguration. Until then, we have three very difficult months.

On the one hand, it may even be that if Bolsonaro starts to add fuel to the fire, as he did in Santa Catarina, the active duty military will stop Bolsonaro. How would they stop? Revealing some information they have on him, something straight forward. They have a lot of information. In this sense, they will drop the “bomb” in time to damage Bolsonaro’s candidacy. But this is a step before Election Day.

Then, with Lula’s victory, we still have the opportunity to take office. But then, with an elected president, with a large number of votes, with international support, it is more difficult to deal with him. Perhaps then Bolsonaro will try to do something crazy, like Trump.

But in the event that he blows everything up, the Armed Forces can respond to the request of the Supreme Court and bring troops to the streets to defend democracy. Further, it gets even worse: a situation has developed when Lula has not even taken office yet, but already owes something to the Armed Forces.

But wouldn’t this forecast be somewhat optimistic, since it represents an intervention to defend democracy?

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Is it in quotation marks? Because they created this situation. The situation is not good. There are no optimistic views on this from my side.

It remains to be seen whether the Armed Forces, as an organism, something more than a government, but as a state, will continue to collude with a government that has complaints every day. Ministry of Education, now Caixa Econômica…

Inside the house, the women should tell them, “How far will this go?” As you said at the beginning: they are not going to do anything? They won’t show up? Are you going to make a little statement about how this is too much? Not yet, because candidate Lula, who is their main enemy, is winning.

So let’s hope they are reasonable and Brazil is not a “banana republic”…

I totally agree. The problem is that we remain in this tension, and suspense is part of the military strategy. We don’t know what’s going on. They do not calm the country and will not calm in the near future. The other day, a supporter of Bolsonaro, commenting on the speech in Santa Catarina, said that Bolsonaro has the Armed Forces and “auxiliary forces.”

But he put in the “auxiliary forces” what – hunters, shooters and weapons collectors. Are these guys a support force? Auxiliary force – military police. These guys are not part of the state. Look at the danger we’re approaching.

In short, he armed people and no one knows what might happen.

What can happen, and I hope it doesn’t happen, like you, is that people will die until the situation is resolved. Look what happened in the USA.

People even died there, but the institutions here in Brazil are not as strong as they are there. We don’t know how long they will last…

I agree. So much so that we are dependent on the Armed Forces. Complete nonsense.


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The guest list for Moraes’ TSE inauguration has political resonance.

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published on 18.08.2022 06:00


(Credit: Antonio Augusto/Secom/TSE)

The guest list for the inauguration of Minister Alexandre de Moraes as President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) still resonates in the political arena. More than 2,000 people attended the court ceremony, cheering the magistrate’s speech in defense of the Brazilian electoral process and democracy.

For political scientists, the presence of the political, legal and diplomatic elite at the ceremony was a sign of support for electoral justice, in contrast to the attacks of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his supporters. In his speech, Moraes stressed the credibility of electronic voting machines and said that the result of the election on the same day as the election is “a cause for pride”.

The TSE President also stated that the interference of justice in the elections will be minimal, but will not allow abuse of the right to freedom of speech. However, Bolsonaro, who was present at the ceremony, did not approve of the chorus and remained motionless during the moments of applause.

Through social media yesterday afternoon, the minister once again defended Brazilian democracy. “The TSE ceremony symbolized respect for institutions as the only way to grow and strengthen the Republic and the strength of democracy, as the only political regime where all power comes from the people and which should be exercised for the good of the people,” Moraes wrote.

The inauguration was accompanied by STF ministers, former presidents, politicians, 13 ministers from the Bolsonaro government and 40 ambassadors, as well as 22 governors, the Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, and other government officials. At the same ceremony, Minister Ricardo Lewandowski was sworn in as Deputy.

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Political scientist André Rosa emphasizes that the presence of government officials is commonplace, but this event brought symbolism. “Obviously, the inauguration will be attended by the president and former presidents of the republic. But, in fact, if Bolsonaro was not present at this meeting, it would be very bad and an insult to democracy. It is also important to note that when Alexandre de Moraes speaks in support of the elections, everyone applauds except Bolsonaro,” he said.

For Nahue constitutional lawyer and political scientist Bernardo de Azevedo, the ceremony had several meanings. “Firstly, it shows the firm support of the figure of the minister himself, which may be decisive for his imposition of himself on the TS. At the same time, it supports the strong statements of the minister in defense of the electoral system. , which took on a strong tone and which, in other contexts, would be little more than a footnote in any news story about the event,” he noted.


first meeting

During his first appointment as President of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes met yesterday with the Presidents of the 27 Regional Electoral Courts (TRE). The judge stressed that he would be open to dialogue. “We are absolutely open to everyone. Alone, TSE does nothing. The TSE works together with the regional electoral courts and with all election judges,” he said.

Moraes has already said he will not let his guard down during the election period. The TSE already has a plan ready to hold the October elections with the least possible disturbance and prevent justice in case of extreme scenarios.

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In a meeting with TRE, he said it was extremely important that preventive action be taken together on Election Day. Discussions also included fighting disinformation, working with security forces, training poll workers, and changes to ballot box distribution.

The minister will command selective justice during the most troubling elections since the country’s redemocratization. He will be tasked with ensuring the fairness of the voting system, as well as dealing with the untimely behavior of Jair Bolsonaro, who claims without evidence that the previous elections were rigged.

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Evangelists are at a political peak and single out Michelle and Janya – 17.08.2022 – Poder

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Evangelists are at a political peak and single out Michelle and Janya - 17.08.2022 - Poder

With a thumbs up, the pastor of the Assembly of God in Botukatu (SP) warns that anyone who votes for Lulu (PT) is “not worthy of the Lord’s Supper.” The best thing such a believer can do is to refrain from eating bread and drinking from a cup (usually grape juice), which is a symbolic recognition of Christ’s sacrifice, he says.

“He said there in the Sarawah circle when he got popcorn on his head that ‘the demons are bothering me now’. Do you have the courage to say that you will vote for such a person?” The religious leader refers to a video from 2021 showing PT participating in a candomblé ritual. Lula never claimed to have been possessed, but walks around evangelical churches with a quote taken out of context. He said, in fact, that “Bolsonarists on social media” spread “that the devil cares about me.”

Opponents conjure up a narrative of Lula’s collusion with darkness after the first elections in newly democratized Brazil, when evangelicals began to gain prominence in the elections. The segment now reaches, in this year 2022, polarized between PT and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the pinnacle of its political activity, in a confrontation in which the first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and the sociologist Rosangela da Silva, Giagna, Squid’s wife.

The emergence of this Christian bloc in politics began in the Constituent Assembly, which formulated the Constitution of 1988. The first evangelical pew was formed there, which, in his own words, gave a “biblical ablution” to the chairman of the Constituent Assembly, Ulisse Guimarães.

“Brother, vote for brother” Josue Silvestre, a parliamentary councilor associated with another Assembly, God’s, dates back to that time. The book summarizes the new evangelical Zeitgeist: “The believer votes for the believer, because otherwise he cannot claim to be a believer,” wrote Sylvester.

“Evangelical leaders, especially Pentecostals, took advantage of the context of democratic openness to invest in political activism,” says Ricardo Mariano, a USP sociology professor who coined the term “neo-Pentecostals” in his master’s thesis in the 1990s. “Since the 1970s, pastors have been harassed by candidates who, when elected, often broke their promises. This, they said, encouraged them to nominate their own candidates.”

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Churches began, in Mariano’s words, to “strategically resort to the victimized fate of a persecuted religious minority, declaring the urgent need to protect religious freedom, Christian morality, and their own interests from attacks by perceived enemies through the election of church representatives.”

An example of a leap year when a pastor backed Lulu against Fernando Collor in 1989, Silas Malafaia says that as a child he heard pastors preach “that politics and television are the work of the devil.” He quotes the biblical passage “Give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and to God what is God’s” to explain why “I could not, thinking with my buttons, understand the reason for this.”

As a televangelist he worked “to give political consciousness to evangelists”. The old pastoral guard, in the words of today’s Bolsonarist Malafay, “only preached heaven and eternal life, as if we were not in an earthly context.”

Fake old news, re-released in 2022, is the idea that PT will close churches. Already in the 1989 elections, there was talk that Lula would do this if she won in collusion with the Catholic Church to eradicate the religious freedom of the evangelicals.

On the eve of the first round, the faithful of the Catholic Church sang “devil on a tightrope, let’s collorir, let’s collorir” at a vigil led by Bishop Edir Macedo, who wore a shirt with the name Collor.

The one wearing the shirt in 2010 was MP Marco Feliciano (PL-SP). It read: “I am a Christian and I vote for Dilma.” In the service, he made a mea culpa: “Like a parrot, I repeated: PT is going to close the churches in Brazil. […] Eight years ago, Lula was a demon. But Lula was chosen and not a single church was closed.”

Feliciano and Macedo were with Dilma Rousseff in an argument that was won by PT. Today, the Episcopal Church is campaigning that the Christian Left is an anomaly, and the MP reiterated that the PT is a threat to churches. Closing temples during the pandemic for health reasons helped inflate this “Lula risk.”

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Feliciano justifies his change of position as follows: PT is “committed to the principles of identity” and one way to silence churches is to shut them up. He says he thinks in the PT government, “laws that prevent pastors from saying that homosexuality is a sin, or that force believers into same-sex ‘marriages’ will swarm.” Lula’s campaign shows no signs of this happening.

Playing with moral pride is a resource that paid off for Bolsonaro in 2018,” recalls Ricardo Mariano. The pastors accused Fernando Haddad, the PT presidential candidate “participating in the anti-PT wave”, of being “an agent of cultural Marxism, a culture of death.” [aborto] and gender ideology,” he says.

In this election, the Catholic Bolsonaro has put an evangelical woman at the forefront of his campaign, whom he married in 2013 with Malafaia’s blessing. Michelle is seen as a more sugary antithesis to the president’s rugged image, which would be well liked by women, 58% of evangelical voters and her husband’s electoral wing. And it turned out better than the order, according to the allies.

The first lady can speak the language of the evangelists, said Apostle Cesar Augusto, leader of the Fonte da Vida church. “She does not pretend during the campaign, as we see with many politicians. We know the difference between authenticity and pretense.”

Malafaya repeats the good impression. “Michelle is known for being a woman, an evangelist who knows how to position herself, looks good,” she says. “And after seeing her husband being killed, like a macho who can’t stand a woman, my friend, a woman has panache, she began to open her mouth.”

Janja, on the other hand, is PT’s bet to lure female voters into a duel between two men who have entered the popular imagination as “macho goats.” However, pastors from the Bolonarist orbit believe that the sociologist has a religious responsibility.

Not only does she exude an image of an independent woman that brings her closer to the feminism rejected by many evangelicals, but she also posted a photo of herself posing next to images of orishas from Afro-Brazilian religions. Here’s how he signed it: “I miss white and twists, turns, turns…”.

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Michelle herself played a recording of the Candomblé leaders showering Lulu with popcorn. But not because of religious tolerance: the video associates this religion with darkness.

Lula’s headquarters is trying to run after Bolsonaro to prevent Bolsonaro from further distancing himself from the former president in an evangelical field that represents 1 in 4 voters.

Lula tested vaccines against a minefield that had been prepared for him to avoid regaining the evangelical voices that once belonged to him, like when he said at the start of his campaign that Bolsonaro was “demons-possessed.” He also brought Pastor Paulo Marcelo to his team, who allied with PT and was a member of the Gideões Missionários da Última Hora, a Pentecostal congress that put forward names like Feliciano, with whom he is friends to this day.

Paulo Marcelo defends a tactic now resurfacing in PT members’ speeches: reminding evangelists that Lula did a lot of good for the group, such as when he approved the law that established the March for Jesus National Day. The former president, he said, also deserves credit for better times. “The question is very simple: what has improved in your life? How much income did your church have at the time of Lula and Dilma, and how much do you have today?”

Something was already recommended in 2013 by Marcello Crivella, nephew of Edir Macedo, who at the time was Dilma’s Minister of Fisheries. At an event with pastors, today’s Bolsonarian Crivella stated: “The President said: We are no longer going to exploit the people. And when there is more money, the evangelical people are not the people who go to the boutique to buy branded clothes. people do? He goes to church more because he can afford the subway and train. He gives more offerings, more tithes, more charity.”

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Where are blacks and women in Rio de Janeiro candidates?

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Where are blacks and women in Rio de Janeiro candidates?

A poll conducted with Electoral Court candidate registration data found that since the start of self-declaration of race in 2014, this is the year with the most black candidates (black and brown) participating in the electoral process.

In 2022, 49.49% of people applying for political office declared themselves black, up 2.95% from 2018. However, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, the national scenario is not repeated.

Read more: Brazil’s main arms group has four tentative candidates in Rio de Janeiro

According to the website of the Higher Electoral Court (TSE), Rio de Janeiro has registered a total of 2,726 candidates for the general election to be held in October. There are a total of 1,268 blacks, representing 46.52% of the candidates, and 1,381 whites, representing 50.66%.

For the President of the Board of Trustees of the Brazilian Institute of Social and Economic Analysis (Ibase) and member of the Black Coalition for the Rights of Vania Sant’Anna, Rio de Janeiro is developing, albeit at a slower pace.

“It is important to say that the state of Rio de Janeiro has always nominated and elected black men and women who are also competitive in the polls – for positions on the council, in the allergen. [Assembleia Legislativa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro] and the Chamber of Deputies. Benedita da Silva, Jurema Batista, Carlos Alberto Cao Oliveira, Edmilson Valentim, Edson Santos, Marcelo Diaz. And many others who were not elected, but showed a strong response in the elections, as, for example, in the case of Lelia Gonzalez, ”comments the historian.

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More: SC and SP are the only states where only whites will run for state governments.

According to Vaniya, the memories of the path traveled by all these political leaders inspire black youth to become more active in the electoral process, running for public office. However, according to the activist, it is important that political parties also take responsibility when presenting a structure of representative candidates for the Brazilian society.

“Political parties must do their part to strengthen black activists who are focused on fighting racism, discrimination and eradicating racial inequality in Brazil. The figure is surprising to many, but blacks make up the majority in the country, don’t they? So it makes sense that this percentage is at that level. The question arises, given this profile, what will be the results of the polls, ”he reflects.

women in politics

In terms of women’s participation in politics, the figures for the state of Rio de Janeiro are very close to the national figures, which show 67% of male candidates and 33% of female candidates.

In Rio, according to the TSE, 68%, i.e. 1856 of the names registered for participation in the general elections, are men and 32%, i.e. 870, are women.

Read more: Among the 70 richest candidates for governor, there is only one woman, in 30th place

Compared to 2018, the participation of women increased by 1%. This year, as in 2018, there are more black women in the state of Rio than whites. In total, 449 black candidates submitted registrations to the electoral court, and 392 registered women who declared themselves white.

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However, the number of white women and 24.8% of black women registered as candidates is down 28.47% from four years ago.

Source: BdF Rio de Janeiro

Editing: Mariana Pitass

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