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Research and political science rule out a turning point in elections – 02.07.2022 – Poder

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Research and political science rule out a turning point in elections - 02.07.2022 - Poder

No one dares to say with complete certainty, but the polling figures and the interpretation of the movements a little more than three months before the elections rule out or at least reduce the possibility that the conflict will no longer focus on Luiz Inácio Lula yes. Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

It is precisely the time before elections that prompts caution, as polls like Datafolha’s at the end of June indicate trends at the time they were taken, but, as the cliché goes, they do not replace poll results.

Other deadlines reinforce the diagnosis that new favorites are unlikely to emerge, while also calling into question Bolsonaro’s recovery conditions and Lula’s ability to manage his advantage.

Comparisons with previous presidential races make this year’s race unique in many ways, but it is a reminder of a constant risk: the hypothesis of the unexpected and even the exceptional, such as Bolsonaro’s blow in 2018.

“Given only the usual elements of market analysis, it is difficult to imagine any changes in the scenario,” says political scientist Carolina de Paula. “Only if we consider external events like stabbings and the like,” she continues, referring to Uerj (Rio State University).

Even with the hardships caused by the wall, the sum of 75% of the intentions to vote for Lulu (47%) and Bolsonaro (28%), presidential candidates such as Ciro Gomes (PDT, 8%), Andre Janones (Avante, 2%). ) and Simona Tebet (MDB, 1%) remain hopeful that there is a long way to go before October 2nd.

Ciro uses the analogy that the votes that could have fallen into his hands are being held up today between the undecided and undecided voters of the two leaders. According to him, the population is in a “state of numbness and fear”, but will wake up.

In the same vein, Janones says that the vote will be decided at the last stage and that this will provoke a search for options. A federal MP from the state of Minas Gerais argues that people are hostage to the obligation to choose the least worse, but that will change.

Tebet tried to prove himself with a message of hope and appeasement. Chosen as the Third Path Poor Consensus Candidate, she is unknown to 77% of the population. The challenge is to rise in the polls and be seen as a viable alternative.

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The strategists of these campaigns resort to several arguments to support the idea that nothing guarantees that Lula will either be elected in the first round or will necessarily compete with Bolsonaro in the second. This, of course, does not count the threat of an electoral coup by the incumbent president.

Free advertising on radio and TV (which will run from August 26 to September 29), electorate fatigue from the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro and the late awakening of part of the electorate for elections and the availability of options are cited. as possible turning points.

There are still those betting on Bolsonaro and Lula’s massive rejection (today 55% and 35% respectively) as a trigger for a reversal. Experts meet all assumptions with skepticism.

“Polls show a crystallization of the feeling that the competition will be between the two and that it will be necessary to keep one of them,” says Karolina.

The widespread use of social media, spurred on by the Bolsonaro, contributes to a permanent election climate, unlike the past, she said. The new reality tends to blur the importance of mandatory advertising in traditional media.

Predictions of the sustainability of the scenario are also based on the anticipation of the pre-election debate – first by a presidential mandate, and then by the rehabilitation of a member of the PT – and the unprecedented antagonism between charismatic politicians already in office. and can be evaluated empirically.

“Anything other than a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro seems increasingly unlikely to me,” says Humberto Dantas, coordinator of the graduate program in political science at the Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo. “With what we have today, there is little room for another phenomenon.”

For the researcher, the picture is nothing but a reflection of the national policy of recent years, in which the force of attraction of both prevailed. The inability of the centre-right to create a credible alternative has something to do with this.

At the same time, in the 2018 and 2014 elections, electoral intentions were more dispersed among the main candidates, which meant there was a greater chance of hesitation, falls and overtakes.

In the race four years ago, there was still a spoiling element on the horizon, the exchange of Lula, who was then arrested and denied entry, for Fernando Haddad on the PT ticket.

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The wave of underdogs and political renewal attributed to Bolsonaro has since subsided, as the 2020 municipal elections showed, dictated by powers such as governance experience.

This leads analysts to disapprove of comparisons to the succession of 2018 winning governors such as Romeu Zema (Novo-MG) and Wilson Witzel (PSC-RJ), who have been swept away by the Boltonar turmoil. It is clear that the reality is different now, both at the state and federal levels.

The combination of features leads to an assessment that the official campaign period is unlikely to undermine the permanence of Lula and Bolsonaro at the forefront. However, variations in their percentage due to predictable attacks from both sides are not ruled out.

“If Bolsonaro can create a miracle, he will have a chance to win. Otherwise, he will have to face great difficulties and he will have to rely on luck,” says sociologist and political scientist Antonio Lavareda from the Ipespe Research Institute.

History, he notes, shows that presidential candidates who have turned the tables have used trump cards (as in the case of Fernando Enrique Cardoso and the Real Plan in 1994), godfathers (Dilma Rousseff and Lula’s backing in 2010), or exceptional circumstances. (attack on Bolsonaro). who singled it out).

In the fight to stay in office until 2026, the chief executive is resorting to pre-election measures to try to cushion the effects of the economic crisis, which is more than the central agenda for this election. The big question is whether these gestures will have a short-term effect and affect the vote.

For analysts, Bolsonaro’s situation is critical because of this bias, but somewhat comfortable given the fact that he has a 25% to 30% vote intent and is not in danger of being squeezed out of second place by other rivals.

Variables in the presidential race

what’s posted today

  • Lula and Bolsonaro stack up together 75% of intent votes in the first roundwhile third place, Ciro Gomez, has 8%, according to Datafolha.

  • Lula reaches 37% in spontaneous studies and jumps to 47% in incentivized (when applicants’ names are submitted). Bolsonaro rose from 25% to 28%.

  • 70% of voters say they already fully resolved about their vote, according to Datafolha. The percentage is even higher among the voters of Lula and Bolsonaro (80%).

  • Determined to vote despite a series of setbacks, Bolsonaro 55% failure whoever voted for him at all, a stable exchange rate since March

What else can change

  • 27% of voters in a spontaneous poll say not knowing who to vote for, a rate that drops to 4% during the stimulation period. Zeros and spaces make up 7%. For 29%, their current choice may change

  • The Ciro and Tebet campaigns are betting on official campaign periodwhich will last a month and a half, starting on August 16, to convince doubters and hook more voters

  • opponents of the project polarization selector fatigue between Lula and Bolsonaro, which would lead to the search for other options, but both still represent the right base

  • Tebet and Janones familiar by 23% and 25% of voters, respectively, and expect to increase these figures in order to strengthen their intentions to vote.

  • leave the decision to vote for last hour has been a common occurrence in recent years, but analysts believe the scenario has crystallized early this time, contributing to a useful vote.

Doubts that hover

  • Bolsonaro will be able to catch his breath with pre-election activities try to lower fuel prices and increase Auxílio Brasil from 400 reais to 600 reais?

  • Alternative candidates will attract the attention of the voter and strengthen their indices a little over a month official campaign and schedule on TV and radio?

  • Candidates like Ciro, Tebet and Janones will seduce voters and growth in the polls to the extent of avoiding Lula’s victory in the first round or knocking Bolsonaro out of the second?

  • A little surprise could it spoil the scenario, whether it be a change in the list of competitors, a change in the mood of the electorate, or some other event from the realm of the incomprehensible?

  • An official campaign in which candidates exalt their virtues and attack rivals, significant influence performances by Lula and Bolsonaro?

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The guest list for Moraes’ TSE inauguration has political resonance.

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published on 18.08.2022 06:00


(Credit: Antonio Augusto/Secom/TSE)

The guest list for the inauguration of Minister Alexandre de Moraes as President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) still resonates in the political arena. More than 2,000 people attended the court ceremony, cheering the magistrate’s speech in defense of the Brazilian electoral process and democracy.

For political scientists, the presence of the political, legal and diplomatic elite at the ceremony was a sign of support for electoral justice, in contrast to the attacks of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and his supporters. In his speech, Moraes stressed the credibility of electronic voting machines and said that the result of the election on the same day as the election is “a cause for pride”.

The TSE President also stated that the interference of justice in the elections will be minimal, but will not allow abuse of the right to freedom of speech. However, Bolsonaro, who was present at the ceremony, did not approve of the chorus and remained motionless during the moments of applause.

Through social media yesterday afternoon, the minister once again defended Brazilian democracy. “The TSE ceremony symbolized respect for institutions as the only way to grow and strengthen the Republic and the strength of democracy, as the only political regime where all power comes from the people and which should be exercised for the good of the people,” Moraes wrote.

The inauguration was accompanied by STF ministers, former presidents, politicians, 13 ministers from the Bolsonaro government and 40 ambassadors, as well as 22 governors, the Attorney General of the Republic, Augusto Aras, and other government officials. At the same ceremony, Minister Ricardo Lewandowski was sworn in as Deputy.

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Political scientist André Rosa emphasizes that the presence of government officials is commonplace, but this event brought symbolism. “Obviously, the inauguration will be attended by the president and former presidents of the republic. But, in fact, if Bolsonaro was not present at this meeting, it would be very bad and an insult to democracy. It is also important to note that when Alexandre de Moraes speaks in support of the elections, everyone applauds except Bolsonaro,” he said.

For Nahue constitutional lawyer and political scientist Bernardo de Azevedo, the ceremony had several meanings. “Firstly, it shows the firm support of the figure of the minister himself, which may be decisive for his imposition of himself on the TS. At the same time, it supports the strong statements of the minister in defense of the electoral system. , which took on a strong tone and which, in other contexts, would be little more than a footnote in any news story about the event,” he noted.


first meeting

During his first appointment as President of the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes met yesterday with the Presidents of the 27 Regional Electoral Courts (TRE). The judge stressed that he would be open to dialogue. “We are absolutely open to everyone. Alone, TSE does nothing. The TSE works together with the regional electoral courts and with all election judges,” he said.

Moraes has already said he will not let his guard down during the election period. The TSE already has a plan ready to hold the October elections with the least possible disturbance and prevent justice in case of extreme scenarios.

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In a meeting with TRE, he said it was extremely important that preventive action be taken together on Election Day. Discussions also included fighting disinformation, working with security forces, training poll workers, and changes to ballot box distribution.

The minister will command selective justice during the most troubling elections since the country’s redemocratization. He will be tasked with ensuring the fairness of the voting system, as well as dealing with the untimely behavior of Jair Bolsonaro, who claims without evidence that the previous elections were rigged.

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Evangelists are at a political peak and single out Michelle and Janya – 17.08.2022 – Poder

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Evangelists are at a political peak and single out Michelle and Janya - 17.08.2022 - Poder

With a thumbs up, the pastor of the Assembly of God in Botukatu (SP) warns that anyone who votes for Lulu (PT) is “not worthy of the Lord’s Supper.” The best thing such a believer can do is to refrain from eating bread and drinking from a cup (usually grape juice), which is a symbolic recognition of Christ’s sacrifice, he says.

“He said there in the Sarawah circle when he got popcorn on his head that ‘the demons are bothering me now’. Do you have the courage to say that you will vote for such a person?” The religious leader refers to a video from 2021 showing PT participating in a candomblé ritual. Lula never claimed to have been possessed, but walks around evangelical churches with a quote taken out of context. He said, in fact, that “Bolsonarists on social media” spread “that the devil cares about me.”

Opponents conjure up a narrative of Lula’s collusion with darkness after the first elections in newly democratized Brazil, when evangelicals began to gain prominence in the elections. The segment now reaches, in this year 2022, polarized between PT and Jair Bolsonaro (PL), the pinnacle of its political activity, in a confrontation in which the first lady Michelle Bolsonaro and the sociologist Rosangela da Silva, Giagna, Squid’s wife.

The emergence of this Christian bloc in politics began in the Constituent Assembly, which formulated the Constitution of 1988. The first evangelical pew was formed there, which, in his own words, gave a “biblical ablution” to the chairman of the Constituent Assembly, Ulisse Guimarães.

“Brother, vote for brother” Josue Silvestre, a parliamentary councilor associated with another Assembly, God’s, dates back to that time. The book summarizes the new evangelical Zeitgeist: “The believer votes for the believer, because otherwise he cannot claim to be a believer,” wrote Sylvester.

“Evangelical leaders, especially Pentecostals, took advantage of the context of democratic openness to invest in political activism,” says Ricardo Mariano, a USP sociology professor who coined the term “neo-Pentecostals” in his master’s thesis in the 1990s. “Since the 1970s, pastors have been harassed by candidates who, when elected, often broke their promises. This, they said, encouraged them to nominate their own candidates.”

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Churches began, in Mariano’s words, to “strategically resort to the victimized fate of a persecuted religious minority, declaring the urgent need to protect religious freedom, Christian morality, and their own interests from attacks by perceived enemies through the election of church representatives.”

An example of a leap year when a pastor backed Lulu against Fernando Collor in 1989, Silas Malafaia says that as a child he heard pastors preach “that politics and television are the work of the devil.” He quotes the biblical passage “Give to Caesar what is Caesar’s, and to God what is God’s” to explain why “I could not, thinking with my buttons, understand the reason for this.”

As a televangelist he worked “to give political consciousness to evangelists”. The old pastoral guard, in the words of today’s Bolsonarist Malafay, “only preached heaven and eternal life, as if we were not in an earthly context.”

Fake old news, re-released in 2022, is the idea that PT will close churches. Already in the 1989 elections, there was talk that Lula would do this if she won in collusion with the Catholic Church to eradicate the religious freedom of the evangelicals.

On the eve of the first round, the faithful of the Catholic Church sang “devil on a tightrope, let’s collorir, let’s collorir” at a vigil led by Bishop Edir Macedo, who wore a shirt with the name Collor.

The one wearing the shirt in 2010 was MP Marco Feliciano (PL-SP). It read: “I am a Christian and I vote for Dilma.” In the service, he made a mea culpa: “Like a parrot, I repeated: PT is going to close the churches in Brazil. […] Eight years ago, Lula was a demon. But Lula was chosen and not a single church was closed.”

Feliciano and Macedo were with Dilma Rousseff in an argument that was won by PT. Today, the Episcopal Church is campaigning that the Christian Left is an anomaly, and the MP reiterated that the PT is a threat to churches. Closing temples during the pandemic for health reasons helped inflate this “Lula risk.”

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Feliciano justifies his change of position as follows: PT is “committed to the principles of identity” and one way to silence churches is to shut them up. He says he thinks in the PT government, “laws that prevent pastors from saying that homosexuality is a sin, or that force believers into same-sex ‘marriages’ will swarm.” Lula’s campaign shows no signs of this happening.

Playing with moral pride is a resource that paid off for Bolsonaro in 2018,” recalls Ricardo Mariano. The pastors accused Fernando Haddad, the PT presidential candidate “participating in the anti-PT wave”, of being “an agent of cultural Marxism, a culture of death.” [aborto] and gender ideology,” he says.

In this election, the Catholic Bolsonaro has put an evangelical woman at the forefront of his campaign, whom he married in 2013 with Malafaia’s blessing. Michelle is seen as a more sugary antithesis to the president’s rugged image, which would be well liked by women, 58% of evangelical voters and her husband’s electoral wing. And it turned out better than the order, according to the allies.

The first lady can speak the language of the evangelists, said Apostle Cesar Augusto, leader of the Fonte da Vida church. “She does not pretend during the campaign, as we see with many politicians. We know the difference between authenticity and pretense.”

Malafaya repeats the good impression. “Michelle is known for being a woman, an evangelist who knows how to position herself, looks good,” she says. “And after seeing her husband being killed, like a macho who can’t stand a woman, my friend, a woman has panache, she began to open her mouth.”

Janja, on the other hand, is PT’s bet to lure female voters into a duel between two men who have entered the popular imagination as “macho goats.” However, pastors from the Bolonarist orbit believe that the sociologist has a religious responsibility.

Not only does she exude an image of an independent woman that brings her closer to the feminism rejected by many evangelicals, but she also posted a photo of herself posing next to images of orishas from Afro-Brazilian religions. Here’s how he signed it: “I miss white and twists, turns, turns…”.

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Michelle herself played a recording of the Candomblé leaders showering Lulu with popcorn. But not because of religious tolerance: the video associates this religion with darkness.

Lula’s headquarters is trying to run after Bolsonaro to prevent Bolsonaro from further distancing himself from the former president in an evangelical field that represents 1 in 4 voters.

Lula tested vaccines against a minefield that had been prepared for him to avoid regaining the evangelical voices that once belonged to him, like when he said at the start of his campaign that Bolsonaro was “demons-possessed.” He also brought Pastor Paulo Marcelo to his team, who allied with PT and was a member of the Gideões Missionários da Última Hora, a Pentecostal congress that put forward names like Feliciano, with whom he is friends to this day.

Paulo Marcelo defends a tactic now resurfacing in PT members’ speeches: reminding evangelists that Lula did a lot of good for the group, such as when he approved the law that established the March for Jesus National Day. The former president, he said, also deserves credit for better times. “The question is very simple: what has improved in your life? How much income did your church have at the time of Lula and Dilma, and how much do you have today?”

Something was already recommended in 2013 by Marcello Crivella, nephew of Edir Macedo, who at the time was Dilma’s Minister of Fisheries. At an event with pastors, today’s Bolsonarian Crivella stated: “The President said: We are no longer going to exploit the people. And when there is more money, the evangelical people are not the people who go to the boutique to buy branded clothes. people do? He goes to church more because he can afford the subway and train. He gives more offerings, more tithes, more charity.”

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Where are blacks and women in Rio de Janeiro candidates?

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Where are blacks and women in Rio de Janeiro candidates?

A poll conducted with Electoral Court candidate registration data found that since the start of self-declaration of race in 2014, this is the year with the most black candidates (black and brown) participating in the electoral process.

In 2022, 49.49% of people applying for political office declared themselves black, up 2.95% from 2018. However, in the state of Rio de Janeiro, the national scenario is not repeated.

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According to the website of the Higher Electoral Court (TSE), Rio de Janeiro has registered a total of 2,726 candidates for the general election to be held in October. There are a total of 1,268 blacks, representing 46.52% of the candidates, and 1,381 whites, representing 50.66%.

For the President of the Board of Trustees of the Brazilian Institute of Social and Economic Analysis (Ibase) and member of the Black Coalition for the Rights of Vania Sant’Anna, Rio de Janeiro is developing, albeit at a slower pace.

“It is important to say that the state of Rio de Janeiro has always nominated and elected black men and women who are also competitive in the polls – for positions on the council, in the allergen. [Assembleia Legislativa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro] and the Chamber of Deputies. Benedita da Silva, Jurema Batista, Carlos Alberto Cao Oliveira, Edmilson Valentim, Edson Santos, Marcelo Diaz. And many others who were not elected, but showed a strong response in the elections, as, for example, in the case of Lelia Gonzalez, ”comments the historian.

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More: SC and SP are the only states where only whites will run for state governments.

According to Vaniya, the memories of the path traveled by all these political leaders inspire black youth to become more active in the electoral process, running for public office. However, according to the activist, it is important that political parties also take responsibility when presenting a structure of representative candidates for the Brazilian society.

“Political parties must do their part to strengthen black activists who are focused on fighting racism, discrimination and eradicating racial inequality in Brazil. The figure is surprising to many, but blacks make up the majority in the country, don’t they? So it makes sense that this percentage is at that level. The question arises, given this profile, what will be the results of the polls, ”he reflects.

women in politics

In terms of women’s participation in politics, the figures for the state of Rio de Janeiro are very close to the national figures, which show 67% of male candidates and 33% of female candidates.

In Rio, according to the TSE, 68%, i.e. 1856 of the names registered for participation in the general elections, are men and 32%, i.e. 870, are women.

Read more: Among the 70 richest candidates for governor, there is only one woman, in 30th place

Compared to 2018, the participation of women increased by 1%. This year, as in 2018, there are more black women in the state of Rio than whites. In total, 449 black candidates submitted registrations to the electoral court, and 392 registered women who declared themselves white.

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However, the number of white women and 24.8% of black women registered as candidates is down 28.47% from four years ago.

Source: BdF Rio de Janeiro

Editing: Mariana Pitass

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