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3 reasons not to panic about the highest inflation in decades

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3 reasons not to panic about the highest inflation in decades

When the latest US consumer price data was released last Wednesday, the benchmark was outrageous.

Inflation rose to 9.1% in June.This is evidenced by data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is higher than expected by economists polled by Refinitiv.

Also much higher than indicator of 8.6% recorded in Maywhich shocked the financial markets and prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressive – increasing doubts about whether the central bank will be able to control inflation without triggering a recession.

Investors were preparing for a surprise. But there is reason to believe that Wall Street’s reaction to these numbers will be more restrained than it was last month.

“Politicians and investors alike will easily handle this new high,” Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told me.

Because? A closer look at the inflation data shows that while the situation is worrisome, there are some reasons for optimism.

1. Core inflation. Annual core inflation, which drives food and energy price volatility, appears to have peaked in March. Federal Reserve officers are more worried about signs that inflation is widespread, so this scenario offers some hope that the situation is improving, even with skyrocketing food and fuel prices.

Core inflation fell from 6% in May to 5.9% in the 12 months to June. This decline could continue if consumer demand for goods continues to decline and shoppers avoid high prices and redirect their income to services such as eating out.

2. The price of oil. Fears that the global economy could slip into recession dampened expectations for fuel demand, helping ease pressure on US gasoline prices this month. The average price of a gallon of conventional fuel last Wednesday was $4.63, up from $4.78 a week ago and $5.01 a month ago.

This was not reflected in the June data as the price of gasoline was at an all-time high when the Bureau of Labor Statistics compiled the consumer price index. The gasoline index rose 11.2% between May and June.

But that means July is likely to be better, and markets like to look ahead.

3. Long-term inflation expectations. One study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published this week showed that while consumer inflation expectations for the coming year reached a new peak in June, medium and long-term expectations have weakened.

This shows that American consumers still believe that the Federal Reserve Bank will be able to control inflation by raising interest rates and stopping bond purchases during the crisis. The economy may slow down, but price stability will eventually be restored, as will much-maligned confidence in central banks.

Said that: Core inflation remains extremely high, well above the central bank’s target of around 2%. On a monthly basis, it seems to be accelerating, which is bad news. And there are signs that inflationary pressures are spreading to parts of the economy where they are likely to persist for some time, such as the housing and rental markets.

housing index grew by 5.6% for the last year. This was the largest increase since February 1991. During the same period, home furniture prices rose by 9.5%, while airfare increased by more than 34%.

Looking to the future: when inflation starts to decline, will it return to pre-pandemic levels?

Some senior officials, including Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and Agustin Carstens, who heads the Bank for International Settlements, acknowledged at a summit in Portugal late last month that there is a risk that we could enter a period of persistently high inflation if central banks do not quickly take control of the situation.

“The big question for me is whether we are in the process of transitioning from a low-inflation regime to a high-inflation regime,” Brusuelas said.

Oil prices take center stage in Biden’s trip to the Middle East

When President Joe Biden arrived in the Middle East, he was accompanied by the specter of high oil prices, which pose a growing political risk to the White House.

But recent market movements may lower expectations for this trip. World oil prices fell 7% on Tuesday to below $100 a barrel, and are down 13% this month. The price of oil in the US fell below $96 a barrel, with a fall of more than 9% in July.

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency softened its forecasts for global oil demand for this year, pointing to “higher prices and a worsening economic situation.” At the same time, some restrictions on the supply were lifted with constant access to barrels of Russian origin.

However, the Paris agency warned that huge unknowns lie ahead.

“Forecasts for oil markets are rarely more uncertain,” the monthly report says. “Deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and recession fears weigh on market confidence, while there are persistent supply-side risks.”

Much of the recent price drop has been attributed to the risks of China’s “zero Covid” policy. While major cities have eased their toughest restrictions, a rising number of cases and the emergence of a highly infectious sub-variant of Omicron in Shanghai have raised concerns about a return to massive lockdowns.

China is the world’s second largest oil consumer after the US. China’s crude oil imports fell sharply in June from May, according to government data released this week.

what follows: Biden is not safe. Given the market restrictions, oil prices most likely do not have room for further decline. This means that it would be good for the United States if countries like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased their production using their existing capacity.

“I think we are at the top,” Rohan Reddy, director of research at the Global X ETF, told me. “Now there is not enough supply.”

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Economy

BMW asks not to drive or charge iX and i4 trams due to fire hazard – Observer

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BMW asks not to drive or charge iX and i4 trams due to fire hazard - Observer

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BMW and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), the local authority responsible for road safety, have advised consumers in the United States that should urgently stop driving or recharging their electric BMW iX and i4, and the NHTSA also provides advice on the best places to park your car. As always, it is the American market that is quicker to respond to security concerns, despite the fact that all iX and i4 in circulation are currently made only in Germany, including those sold in Portugal.

Like other builders, BMW also has to deal with battery-related safety issues. In particular, with cells used to form packagewhere possible risk of short circuit in a high voltage circuit may cause a fire.

The elements in question are not produced by BMW, a manufacturer that has not yet invested in these capacities, but are purchased from two external suppliers, namely the South Koreans from Samsung and the Chinese from CATL, anything that indicates they may have a manufacturing defect. The cells are imported and then the cells are generated. packages which will be fitted to vehicles near the factories where they are produced: i4 at the Munich plant and iX at the Dingolfing plant, both in Germany.

In addition to public notices through website NHTSA which we reproduce here, BMW will contact each of the owners directly. And the fact that this is a call to the workshop marked “urgent” will certainly deserve the attention of those who are interested.

THE PUB • CONTINUE TO READ BELOW

The number of vehicles participating in this revoke very small because BMW’s electric SUV and sedan have only recently begun to be offered in the US market. The brand estimates that only 83 units (56 iX and 27 i4) are at risk. The number of units sold of these two models in Europe is much higher. even in Portugal, for which there is no information.

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California regulator accuses Tesla of misleading consumers

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California regulator accuses Tesla of misleading consumers

The Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) said Tesla advertised its autopilot and autonomous driving technologies as more efficient than they actually are, according to the Los Angeles Times.

The company “has made or published false or misleading statements that are not based on facts,” according to a case filed July 28 with the Office of Administrative Hearings.

The Los Angeles Times writes that Tesla vehicles could never “and never can operate as autonomous vehicles,” claims DMV. The regulator did not immediately respond to an AFP request for comment.

Tesla’s website describes its autopilot as having “fully autonomous driving.” “All the driver has to do is get in the car and tell them where to go,” the company says, promising that “if you don’t say anything, the car will check your schedule and take you to your intended destination.” “

The ruling in favor of the California regulator could have serious repercussions for the electric car maker, including the potential revocation of licenses that allow Tesla to make or sell its cars in the state, according to the Times.

However, a DMV spokesperson told the newspaper that what the agency really wants is for Tesla to better inform consumers about its autonomous vehicles and acknowledge the limitations of its technology.

Tesla vehicles equipped with self-driving software have been involved in 273 crashes in the United States, according to a report released in June by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, which is investigating the company.

In June, Tesla owner Elon Musk stressed the importance of fully autonomous driving, saying that without it, the value of his company would be “close to zero.”

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XBUS Camper, Ultra-Efficient 2 Person Electric Mini Camper

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Imagem da minicaravana elétrica XBUS

Electric vehicles are taking over the roads and in the near future every class of vehicle will be available on electricity. From light to heavy, passing through the transport of people, to commodity, brands are hard at work preparing the transition. We say this emphatically because even the most unusual proposals are already thinking about electrical efficiency. A luxury case is the XBUS Camper motorhome.

This offer is for a super efficient electric mini caravan for 2 people. Relax in nature with maximum comfort.

XBUS: a mini caravan that does not harm the environment and your comfort

The proposal is based on some sustainability criteria. One small car with solar panels and it can accommodate two people. Thus, the camper version of the XBUS will have a length of 3.95 m, the minivan offers space for the comfort of passengers.

One retractable cab at the rear creates a 130 x 210 cm sleeper. There is also a mobile kitchen unit on board, which can be used outside the vehicle if necessary, as well as TV, refrigerator, fresh water tank and sink.

In a fully equipped version the price of the XBUS Camper with convertible roof should be around 30,170 euros.. At present, the prototype machine is still in early production at the German firm based in Rossbach. The first models are expected to reach customers in 2024.

The camping version is equipped with four electrically controlled wheel motors that together deliver up to 56 kW (76 hp) at full power for a top speed of 100 km/h.

Picture of XBUS electric mini caravan

Converting solar energy into electrical energy

The battery in the basic version has a capacity of 15 kWh and can be increased up to 45 kWh with additional battery packs. Depending on the battery configuration, range must be between 200 and 600 km. Charging takes three to five hours from a standard 220V outlet, or correspondingly faster from an 11kW charger.

Like other XBUS variants, the XBUS Camper is available in both standard and off-road chassis versions with increased ground clearance. A 5 m² photovoltaic panel is installed on the roof. Under optimal conditions, a vehicle should be able to generate an additional range of 30 to 50 km per day from solar energy on average per year.

This technology is especially relevant for camping in sunny regions. Thanks to car charging technology, campers can also use their own solar power from the car's own 220-volt socket.

With a curb weight between 500 and 800 kg, depending on equipment, the XBUS belongs to the category of light electric vehicles. In the future, XBUS customers will be able to choose from nine options. Whether it's a pickup truck, van, bus or motorhome, they all take a modular approach.

Faced with increasing traffic congestion, we need smart, versatile and sustainable concepts that enable individual mobility and adapt to personal lifestyles: sustainable, modular and affordable. That's where we come in with XBUS.

Said Ralph Haller, founder of the company.

Modular to adapt to any type of offer

The modular principle can be a big advantage of this proposal. For example, with just two modules, a van can be temporarily converted into a motorhome for the next vacation.

Approximately 270 dealers in Germany and more than 800 in Europe make this quick and easy conversion possible. It is also planned to rent modules.

Company policy regarding XBUS, ElectricityBrandsthis concept and product is based on environmentally friendly production methods and short delivery routes, as well as the use of cobalt-free batteries.

Our goal is to be able to reuse as many individual parts as possible. We achieve this by using unblended materials and components, which are generally 100% recyclable. Green from start to finish, that's what the global concept is for.

concluded Ralph Haller.

Portugal is already included in the list of countries that will be able to get this car.

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