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Current political research, programs and facts

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Reuben K. Keinertretired professor FGV-EAESP

The latest polls confirmed Lula’s lead in the next presidential election and Jair Bolsonaro’s second place in the first round. They also confirm that the intent percentage of consolidated votes that both have – about 75% of the electorate – makes it very difficult for another competitive candidate to emerge, although there is apparently nothing stopping other candidates from continuing to express support and alliances in anticipation of twists and turns after the official start of the campaign.

It is in this tuning fork that Simone Tebet/Tasso Gereissati appears, the pre-candidate, speaking out against a numerical reality that has discouraged several others who have stood in the way. The so-called Third Way has been reduced to a third candidate, Ciro Gomez, the first name to be overcome by those who want to participate in the battle coming from below. With 7-8% intent, Sirao das Massas remains solid even if he has nothing to do.

Despite these deviant characters, Tebeta and Ciro, the pre-candidates continue to take into account what polls show about voter preferences. Testimonials are more eloquent than persistence and testify to the professionalism and competence of political intelligence institutions (with the usual exceptions). Continuously measuring the perception of gestures, words, and actions of postulators is critical to providing feedback on campaigns and guiding the next steps.

From this point of view, one can understand the decisions made by teams, as well as tactical and strategic successes and mistakes, although successes do not always help, and mistakes do not harm. There are surprises along the way. Thus, the Ciro campaign’s “right” to publish a book with its program and government ideas did not have the expected effect; he was not harmed by the “mistakes” of Lula’s untimely statements in terms of numbers; nor does the Bolsonaro government’s crude ways of thinking, speaking, and acting (or not acting) seem to make much of a difference in percentages over the course of his campaign. Although they did affect their base acceptance and rejection numbers.

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Here, a little-known concept, a political fact, is taken into account. A gesture, a word, or an action becomes a political fact only if it produces effects in the realm of politics itself, which is to seek and retain power, and which escalates at the moment of an electoral dispute. To do this, the candidate and his entourage must be able to convey to the electorate what is relevant for the campaign at the moment. Make equal use of your opponents’ mistakes.

Lula’s advantage at the moment is matched by the fact that he personifies the government’s program to fight hunger, protect labor rights, restore employment and income, support minority interests and the right to life, protect the environment, and restore Brazil’s international prestige. This program is a current political fact, it is Lula’s great success.

For Bolsonaro to remove him from office, it will be necessary to convince voters that the problems he is experiencing will be solved by religiosity, the salvation of the patriarchal family, the arming of the population, the freedom of the majority to impose their views and fight minorities. , turn the Amazon into a productive region and distance Brazil from international multilateral organizations. In other words, to show that this program remains politically relevant, albeit without the fight against corruption and without neoliberal proposals. And it is Ciro and Simone who should stand out from these two programs and offer appropriate options.

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Politics

Politicians call for investigation into president’s sexual harassment case

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Politicians call for investigation into president's sexual harassment case

Brazilian politicians have called for an “investigation” and removal of Caixa Econômica’s federal president, Pedro Duarte Guimarães, after allegations of sexual harassment were made by employees of the Metrópoles website. Reported cases include unauthorized intimate touching, inappropriate approaches, and incompatible job offers.

Republican pre-candidate Simone Tebet (MDB) stressed that “sexual harassment is a crime” and called for “strict and immediate” investigations. The senator also said that the president of the bank should be removed from office immediately until the investigations are completed.

“The bank lives off trust, and the state bank cannot allow a potential harasser to the highest position in the institution,” he wrote on Twitter.

Sen. Randolph Rodriguez (Rede-AP) stressed that the allegations are “serious.” The parliamentarian lamented the case after a week of “destructive news of sexual violence”.

“I just asked that Guimarães be summoned to the Human Rights Commission,” he said.

Preliminary candidate for the Chamber of Deputies in this year’s elections, Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) said that “Bolsonarism does not fail”. The politician also demanded an investigation and punishment.

Federal MP Jandira Fegali (PCdoB-RJ) emphasized that women are in danger everywhere and that “not even in a corporate environment, but in a large state bank” they are saved. The MP said she was “disgusted” and demanded “investigation and punishment.”

Pedro Guimarães has been President of Caixa since the current government came to power. The head of the state-owned company is often present at events near Jair Bolsonaro (PL), in addition to participating several times in the president’s weekly live broadcast.

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Loss of public revenue due to cuts in ICMS and delay in completion of PT plans – Papo Político

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POLITICAL TALK | June 28, 2022

Loss of government revenue due to ICMS cuts and delays in completing PT plates

Sileide Alves comes to Papo Política to say that the Goiás government will have to redo the math, since after the announcement of ICMS cuts to cut fuel, government revenues could lose about 3 million reais. In addition, she comments on the PT’s delay in nominating candidates for governor, vice president and senator. This was expected to happen at the regional meeting held over the weekend, but it didn’t.




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Why the political core of Bolsonaro’s campaign is in an atmosphere of defeat | Malu Gaspar

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Why the political core of Bolsonaro's campaign is in an atmosphere of defeat |  Malu Gaspar

Centrão was disappointed not only because General Braga Netto was elected as Jair Bolsonaro’s deputy instead of federal deputy Teresa Cristina (PP-MS).

The so-called “political wing” of the campaign is in a state of awakening, and the reason is Bolsonaro’s own behavior.

Election 2022: MEC crisis consolidates Braga Netto as Bolsonaro’s vice

fuel crisis: The arrival of Paez de Andrade at Petrobras forces the company’s management to outline an “escape plan”

The fact that the President stated in an interview this Sunday that went through the former Minister of Agriculture, in favor of the general, only worsened the situation, which had already been sour since the end of last week.

This is because the president ignored all the recommendations of marketer Duda Lima regarding a trip to the northeast between Thursday and Saturday.

Emergency plan: The core of Bolsonaro’s campaign developed a “cord cutting” strategy with Milton Ribeiro.

On Wednesday, Lima and the active core of the campaign, which includes ministers Ciro Nogueira and Braga Netto, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) and PL national president Valdemar da Costa Neto, presented a strategic plan to the President. for the next 100 days of the campaign.

Between late afternoon and Wednesday evening, Lima made a presentation suggesting that Bolsonaro use every opportunity he has in the northeast to defend Auxílio Brasil and other job-creating initiatives to try and convince voters who today decided to support the candidacy of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT).

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Election 2022: Why Bolsonaro’s resilience at Datafolha is good news for PT members

The trip to the northeast was fundamental to this work, since it is in this region that Bolsonaro is most often denied. According to the latest Datafolha poll, 55% of Brazilians would not vote for an incumbent president. Among residents of the Northeast, contempt reaches 62%.

The material presented to the president on Wednesday contained a list of programs, as well as what the president should say about each of them in his speeches. After watching the presentation, Bolsonaro praised the plan and said he agreed with everything.

Strategy: How Bolsonaro thinks he can lose his image because of high fuel prices

But in the days that followed, the expected “total focus on the social” turned into a series of speeches about the Milton Ribeiro case, the President’s unfounded suspicions about electronic voting machines and a behind-the-scenes war with the Supreme Court, than about social programs or government achievements. which ultimately went unnoticed.

Friday d.after the release of an audio recording in which the former Minister of Education told his daughter that Bolsonaro had a “premonition” that there would be searches and seizures, the President also canceled a dinner with political leaders from Paraiba.

IEC crisis: The sound is serious and could make Bolsonaro charged with 3 crimes, prosecutors estimate

“The risk of defeat is only increasing,” lamented one of the participants in the attempt to coordinate the work of the campaign yesterday afternoon. “The president does everything to lose” is the assessment that most often sounds around Bolsonaro, but which no one has the courage to express to him directly.

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The concern is mutual: Bolsonaro did not privately criticize the LP, the marketing campaign and the legal team, which is why he ignored the advice he received.

In this context, the decision not to appoint Teresa Cristina as an MP is seen in Centrão as a missed opportunity to create positive facts to “shake up the campaign”.

Judicial branch: The judge who saved Ribeiro is STJ’s favorite and has a history of making pro-government decisions.

In addition to attracting the female electorate, another object of rejection of the head of Planalto, Centrão felt that the image of a woman with a more political profile and the image of the director could “soften” the radicalism of a purely ideological ticket.

“In our planning, June was supposed to be a turning point month, but so far we have only accumulated problems,” says the campaign strategist.

Data sheet: Lyra ‘predicted’ Bolsonaro to lead this month’s polls

For a general who worked at the highest level of government, the Bolsonaro-Braga Netto ticket ended up looking like “bread with êpa!” There is nothing inside,” he defines.

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