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Current political research, programs and facts



Reuben K. Keinertretired professor FGV-EAESP

The latest polls confirmed Lula’s lead in the next presidential election and Jair Bolsonaro’s second place in the first round. They also confirm that the intent percentage of consolidated votes that both have – about 75% of the electorate – makes it very difficult for another competitive candidate to emerge, although there is apparently nothing stopping other candidates from continuing to express support and alliances in anticipation of twists and turns after the official start of the campaign.

It is in this tuning fork that Simone Tebet/Tasso Gereissati appears, the pre-candidate, speaking out against a numerical reality that has discouraged several others who have stood in the way. The so-called Third Way has been reduced to a third candidate, Ciro Gomez, the first name to be overcome by those who want to participate in the battle coming from below. With 7-8% intent, Sirao das Massas remains solid even if he has nothing to do.

Despite these deviant characters, Tebeta and Ciro, the pre-candidates continue to take into account what polls show about voter preferences. Testimonials are more eloquent than persistence and testify to the professionalism and competence of political intelligence institutions (with the usual exceptions). Continuously measuring the perception of gestures, words, and actions of postulators is critical to providing feedback on campaigns and guiding the next steps.

From this point of view, one can understand the decisions made by teams, as well as tactical and strategic successes and mistakes, although successes do not always help, and mistakes do not harm. There are surprises along the way. Thus, the Ciro campaign’s “right” to publish a book with its program and government ideas did not have the expected effect; he was not harmed by the “mistakes” of Lula’s untimely statements in terms of numbers; nor does the Bolsonaro government’s crude ways of thinking, speaking, and acting (or not acting) seem to make much of a difference in percentages over the course of his campaign. Although they did affect their base acceptance and rejection numbers.

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Here, a little-known concept, a political fact, is taken into account. A gesture, a word, or an action becomes a political fact only if it produces effects in the realm of politics itself, which is to seek and retain power, and which escalates at the moment of an electoral dispute. To do this, the candidate and his entourage must be able to convey to the electorate what is relevant for the campaign at the moment. Make equal use of your opponents’ mistakes.

Lula’s advantage at the moment is matched by the fact that he personifies the government’s program to fight hunger, protect labor rights, restore employment and income, support minority interests and the right to life, protect the environment, and restore Brazil’s international prestige. This program is a current political fact, it is Lula’s great success.

For Bolsonaro to remove him from office, it will be necessary to convince voters that the problems he is experiencing will be solved by religiosity, the salvation of the patriarchal family, the arming of the population, the freedom of the majority to impose their views and fight minorities. , turn the Amazon into a productive region and distance Brazil from international multilateral organizations. In other words, to show that this program remains politically relevant, albeit without the fight against corruption and without neoliberal proposals. And it is Ciro and Simone who should stand out from these two programs and offer appropriate options.

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

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Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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