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Cayado denies dissatisfaction with governors and Volmir Amado as PT candidate for government

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POLITICAL TALK | June 30, 2022

Cayado denies dissatisfaction with governors and Volmir Amado as PT candidate for government

In the latest political chat led by Sileide Alves, when Fabiana returns from vacation on Monday, she comments on Ronaldo Caiado’s denial of possible trouble with the 12 governors who have filed a lawsuit in the Federal Supreme Court (STF) against a law restricting the Goods and Services Tax (GST) ) for fuel, energy and communications up to 17%. This week, the chief executive of Goiás announced cuts in rates for gasoline, ethanol and diesel. Finally, she comments on the hammering of a PT named Volmira Amado as a candidate for the Goiás government.

Listen to the full review!




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Politics

“If we had a democracy, Bolsonaro would not have

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“If we had a democracy, Bolsonaro would not have

Brazil is going through a difficult political moment that combines political-electoral violence with the risk of an institutional breakdown. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) bears the main, but not the only, responsibility for the situation. Many hands have contributed to the erosion of Brazilian representative institutions, including much of the national political spectrum that has failed to respond to the challenges it has faced since 2015.

This is the diagnosis of Mara Telles, political scientist, professor at the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG) and president of the Brazilian Association of Election Researchers (Abrapel), presented in an interview Brazil de facto.

As for the current Bolsonaro, Telles is categorical: “If we were in a democracy, Bolsonaro would no longer be president.”

“The proof of dishonesty he closed with praise. He committed not only crimes of administrative dishonesty, but also crimes of corruption, inciting hatred, provoking violence, attacks on all institutions, from universities to TSE, STF, ”he lists.


“His government is a product of violence,” says Mara Telles of Bolsonaro/UFMG.

Read more: Alexandre de Moraes takes over TSE amid problems caused by institutional crisis

“It seems strange to me that we are here today in a situation of normality, as if reality is suspended. I find it dystopian: while the president says he is going to make a coup, he is preparing a coup, he is presenting the coup to the world in the presence of about 70 diplomats. Here we are checking whether there will be not a revolution, but the production of a revolutionary discourse.”

The current violence goes beyond Brazilian standards

The analysis of the political scientist, one of the first analysts to point to the possibility of Jair Bolsonaro winning the 2018 elections, begins with the assassination of PT candidate Marcelo Arruda in Foz do Iguacu by Bolsonarist Jorge Guaragno, which, for Telles, is different from the violence that already exists in the country. “Violence in Brazil is structural, and political violence has existed in Brazil for many years. The number of mayors and councilors killed in Brazil is simply amazing,” he muses.

However, the current violence is different in that it is “built on an ideology” organized around the figure and speech of the president. “We see a president who, long before becoming a candidate, was already promoting a speech about attacking institutions, where instead of institutions we would have the production and reproduction of hatred. Although he says it’s a metaphor, his supporters take it as truth and action. It does not act, but encourages action,” he says.

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:: On Father’s Day, the widow mourns the death of Marcelo Arruda: “Killing the father of the family is inhumane” ::

She believes that this militant discourse, which dehumanizes opponents, has led to an increase in violence in general. “You have an incentive to violence from the president. When we think of the violence in Brazil, we think of femicide, the execution of people in the mountains, as happened recently in Complexo do Alemão, in Jacarezinho. , the invasion of communities is not an invasion, it is an execution,” he analyzes.

“Usually in such cases, even in cases of femicide, the one who executes the woman is a significant part of the police. As happened in Foz do Iguaçu, where the victim was a municipal guard and the other weapon belonged to the police. Officer”.

This violent discourse has several branches, whether it is the glorification of police massacres or measures to facilitate and encourage the purchase of firearms by the public. The number of people with firearms licenses rose from 117,400 in 2018 to 673,800 in June this year, a 473% increase during Bolsonaro’s tenure, according to the Brazilian Public Safety Yearbook. According to data from the National Armaments System (Sinarm), linked to the Federal Police, the number of registered weapons in Brazil has skyrocketed from 637,000 in 2017 to almost 1.5 million in 2021.

:: Threats against Duda Salabert and Manuela D’Avila signal an increase in gender-based violence in politics ::

“His government is a production of violence. And especially now that he is in a not very favorable situation for the 2022 elections, he has radicalized attacks on institutions, on the TSE and encouraged violence not from his side, but from his followers. Telles accuses. “There’s a saying that everyone knows: I’m not afraid of the boss, I’m afraid of the security guard on the corner. It’s the one with the gun who will carry out this speech promoted by the president.”

Democracy x destruction of institutions

Returning to the death of Marcelo Arruda, the political scientist refutes the version that what happened was the result of political polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro, which would increase the anger of both sides. “It was quite clear that this death did not come from polarization. Polarization is when both sides are armed and killing. In this case, there is someone who kills and there is someone who dies,” he says.

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The professor believes that since 1994 there has indeed been a polarization – in fact, almost bipartisanship – between the PT and the PSDB, but the situation is different from what is happening now. “Polarization is not happening with the LP, the Liberal Party. On the one hand, there are people who are trying to protect democracy, institutional functioning, and on the other hand, an ultra-right group that is divided into several parties and wants to destroy institutional structures… This is a process of polarization not in a democratic environment, but between democracy and authoritarianism,” he concludes.

bad loser

Building this risk scenario for an institutional gap, according to the political scientist, was not a simple and quick process. She sees the roots of the current turmoil in the PSDB, and more specifically in the figure of Esio Neves, the acronym candidate for the presidency of the republic, who was defeated by Dilma Rousseff (PT) in 2014.

“This process of institutional disruption begins when the elite does not adhere to democratic norms. When the losing candidate Esio refuses to recognize the results, demands a recount, goes to court to prevent Dilma from graduating, we open a Pandora’s box there. ” evaluates.

At this point, the PSDB teamed up with more radical groups to take down the PT outside of the rules of the game. However, these same groups are rebelling against the Toucans and other right-wing forces, which led to the election of Jair Bolsonaro.

Lava Jato intensifies anti-politics

Another chapter of this process was Operation Lava Jato, widely supported by the corporate media, which, even in the face of evidence of abuse, treated figures such as Sergio Moro and Deltan Dalagnol with full respect.

“There was a strengthening of all non-representative institutions. During the Love Jato, the discourse was anti-political, anti-system, all democratic and representative parties and institutions were attacked, thus leading to the elections in 2016, in which the left lost a significant part of its voters in city halls and municipal councils. Precisely because outsiders have succeeded with this anti-systemic discourse in electing countless councillors, mayors, etc.”

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According to Telles, the media themselves realized that the outcome of this process was not positive, as “journalists are being attacked for their own freedom of expression” by the president during interviews.

“I see them [as mídias] frightened by this situation, but without self-criticism. So, just as the PT has to self-critique because of many mistakes and even condoning some mistakes, the media has much more to do because they gave the knife and fork so Operation Love Jato could empower the police and therefore empower non-representative institutions. ‘, he analyzes.

Left the wrong reading

Leftists, the main targets of Lava Jato, who opened the space for a coup against Dilma Rousseff (PT), also have a share of responsibility in this process, Telles says. For her, this group did not know how to respond to the attacks on the democratic system. This applies both to the lawlessness committed by Lava Jato and the protected media, which should have been suppressed, as well as to direct attacks promoted by far-right militants, which have intensified in the impeachment demonstrations.

“I remember, because I study this topic, that the first demonstration in 2015, in March, President Dilma went on television to tell us that we have democratic demonstrations here, when several scenes of posters, postcards with signs were already shown. [com pedidos] military intervention,” he recalls.

“That’s where the power of the president is, which should have been stopped by the ministers of justice, not demonstrations, because not everyone who walked showed these intervention posters, and those who did should be punished immediately. I think that the government did not know how to read, did not know how to interpret the political situation and did not act with due constitutional and legal rigor in relation to what was being distributed in the country.”

This framework created the conditions for the election of Bolsonaro, who already in 2018 gave a lot of space in his campaign to value the army and militarism. “As a result, today we have more soldiers in the first and second level positions than we had during the military dictatorship,” he emphasizes.

Editing: Talita Pires

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Politics

Inauguration of Alexandre de Moraes puts TSE at the center of the political game

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Alexandre de Moraes
possession

The property of ministers or the presidents of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) or the Higher Electoral Court (TSE) is a common and traditionally bureaucratic act. But the inauguration of minister Alexandre de Moraes as president of the TSE was something very different. The most popular inauguration in the history of the courts was a political event that rivaled two others that really should be the biggest news of the day: the start of the electoral campaigns and the first actions of former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and current representative Jair Bolsonaro as candidates.

Alexandre de Moraes, in his speech, sent clear signals to the guest of honor at the inauguration, President Jair Bolsonaro. Defending democracy, the democratic rule of law, the regularity of electoral fairness, the transparency of the electoral process, the integrity and success of electronic voting machines, the limitation of hate speech or speeches against democratic institutions, Moraes has come under all the usual criticism. addressed to the government and the President of the Republic.

By saying, for example, that freedom of speech has limits and that the constitutional order does not tolerate hate speech or threats of rupture to “establish arbitration”, Moraes contradicted Bolsonaro, who used the freedom argument several times to spread the word, ideas incompatible with the Constitution. And whoever wrote this recently was not a member of the opposition or a regular government critic, but Deputy Attorney General for Elections Paulo Gonet Branco when he was filing against Bolsonaro for telling ambassadors about electronic voting machines.

Moraes once again promised a ruthless fight against false speeches and false news. And it is already known that this action will be especially tough against speeches attacking the legitimacy of the electoral process and against electronic voting machines. Moraes said that “the intervention of the TSE will be minimal, swift and merciless”. The minimum intervention is not as much up to the court, as the amount and severity of fake news will determine how much TSE has to act. But the speed and ruthlessness of punishment depend on the court.

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In recent years, speeches by TSE presidents about fighting fake news have been little more than promises, even because of the complexity of the topic. Alexander de Moraes said today, and in connection with his role as rapporteur on the investigation of fake news, that he will do everything in his power to fulfill the promise. And the precedent of State Deputy Fernando Francischini, whose mandate was withdrawn with the special commitment of Minister Alexandre de Moraes, is a sign that this time the court will really try to punish those responsible for spreading false news against the electoral system, for example.

The ceremony demonstrated the central role of the TSE in these elections. Partly because of the unfavorable policy at the moment. And this importance was confirmed by the presence of Bolsonaro, José Sarney, Lula, Dilma Rousseff and Michel Temer, as well as all the ministers of the Supreme Court, 22 governors and several members of the federal government. The presence of the two main candidates for the presidency of the Republic, in addition to Ciro Gomes and Simone Tebet, is a clear indication of the central role of the court.

A position that the TSE has never really taken. The Court has always acted as an arbitrator that seeks to balance the dispute, which works administratively and logistically by distributing ballot boxes and organizing elections within its bureaucracy. But it has never been put as a guarantor of the process, the security of the change of power. And, in part, President Jair Bolsonaro and his supporters, including the military, were elevated to this post by TSE for criticizing the electoral system, for attacking the court, for flirting with threats to break parliament. democratic rule of law, for requests to impeach Moraes, or to initiate criminal proceedings against a minister.

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If there was any false version of the political agreement made by Ciro Nogueira, Fabio Faria and Paulo Guedes with the TSE, Alexandre de Moraes’ speech showed the opposite. The absence of any mention of the military in the speech is also indicative. For those in government who have spoken of making concessions to the military, Moraes’ silence on the matter demonstrates what his advisers insistently remind him of: the military is not part of the electoral process. As Moraes’ predecessor Edson Fachin categorically stated.

Alexandre de Moraes takes over the management of the TSE, demonstrating political prestige to the court and expressing a vote of confidence in the political system. And it shows that it is becoming increasingly difficult to challenge poll results, no matter who wins in disputes across the country. But here’s a detail: when Alexandre de Moraes said that Brazil was proud of holding elections and counting votes on the same day, the guests gave him a standing ovation. Except Jair Bolsonaro, Ciro Nogueira and other members of the government.

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Politics

The beginning of the election campaign gives the market clues about the political scenario, experts say

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Sao Paulo, 16 August. The campaign period officially begins on Tuesday, and increased coverage of candidates at public events and in the media should boost polls, sharpening the lines of the picture that will be painted in the October election.

According to experts listened to by Mover, the market has not yet begun to bet on the possible outcome of the presidential race and remains in question who will win the dispute.

“Market prices point to a scenario in which Lula and Bolsonaro are tied,” said Pedro Paulo Silveira, director of asset management at Nova Futura Investimentos.

“The market has not been priced yet. It’s a little bit connected between Lula and Bolsonaro if we look at the prices of some assets, such as interest rates and the stock market outlook,” said Andre Perfeito, chief economist at Necton Investimentos.

Nexgen Capital partner Jose Cassiolato said the market sees “a tough and unpredictable election race ahead that makes it difficult to see the outcome. In addition, there is a lot of uncertainty about the economic policy that will be implemented from next year.”

According to some experts, even though former PT president and Palacio do Planalto candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is leading the main polls, public stock prices prove what the market still doesn’t see clearly. In fact, President Jair Bolsonaro will be defeated in the elections.

“Looking at Petrobras in particular, it’s obvious. We can use the same reasoning for percentages and exchange rates. If the campaign shows momentum in one direction, prices will move,” commented Silveira, who believes the market will move into a “very pessimistic” mode if Lula’s candidacy demonstrates a high probability of winning. “The proposals of both are well known, and what will make the prices change is the probability of each of them winning,” he concluded.

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Perfect, however, sees opportunities in the stock market, regardless of the polls. In general, he said, if Bolsonaro is re-elected, the shares of privatized state-owned companies tend to rise in price, and if Lula wins, companies related to the domestic sector, such as retail, construction and education, should do well.

According to Cassiolato, investors should now put emotions aside in order to analyze various companies and their opportunities, taking into account, in addition to elections, the current complex international scenario.

“Operating Advantage”

This week, a pre-election poll conducted by the FSB Institute commissioned by BTG Pactual and Ipec, ex-Ibope, showed Lula’s big advantage over Bolsonaro, even after the 600 reais augmented Auxílio Brasil began to circulate.

The FSB poll even showed that Lula managed to win more votes among the beneficiaries of the social program after the increase, while Bolsonaro, whose government was responsible for expanding aid, remained at the same level of voting intention.

In the FSB’s stimulated poll, Lula won 45% of the vote in the first round, compared to 41% in the previous round on 8 August. Bolsonaro retained 34% in both polls.

In the second round of the FSB poll, Lula increased his intention to vote from 51% to 53%, and Bolsonaro from 39% to 38%.

In the IPEC poll, Lula won 44% of the vote, while Bolsonaro gained 32% in the first round. In the runoff scenario, Lula scored 51% against the current president’s 35%, 16 percentage points behind.

According to political scientist Antonio Lavareda, with the start of the election campaign, Bolsonaro will try to close the distance with his rival, using two lines of communication.

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“First, by saving Lava-Yato’s complaints to save the 2018 ‘climate’. Secondly, using the religious and value agenda, to maximize its leadership in the evangelical environment and regain 70% of the segment. who voted for him in the second round of the last election. Bolsonaro is currently preferred by 49% of voters in this profile, according to a BTG/FSB poll.

Bolsonaro should also try to capitalize on expanding aid with the approval of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment, known as PEC benefits. “The presidential campaign is betting on that,” Lavareda said.

The political scientist also recalled that Bolsonaro has a big trump card in his hands: “the advantage of the incumbent president”, that is, challenging the election in office, “which gives him control over the agenda, the social machine and the ability to ‘seduce’ slices of the government, the electorate” with social benefits .

Lula, in turn, has the advantage of her government’s collective memory. A March poll by Lavareda-led Ipespe found that 58% of Brazilian voters rated both Lula governments as excellent or good.

election campaign

Despite the strong online presence of candidates since 2021 and the importance of social media in past elections, Lavareda reminds us of the relevance of free advertising on television and radio as of August 26, and of greater coverage of candidates from now on.

“The president himself, by opting for a major party and making efforts to include other parties in his coalition, has shown that he recognizes the power of television and radio,” the political scientist argued, also mindful of the importance of numerous reports that talk about Bolsonaro’s hospitalization after a knife wounded in the 2018 campaign. “No one was more in the news than him,” he added.

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Necton’s Perfect believes that the election campaign itself should not affect market sentiment, but it will interfere with the polls, which investors are eyeing more closely.

In addition, from now on, interviews and hearings of candidates will be intensified, and the market should react to their statements. In Bolsonaro’s case, investors are watching him clash with the Supreme Electoral Court and questions regarding electronic voting machines, reports Perfect.

Cassiolato added that the negative agendas of each candidate, as identified by their opponents, will be more pronounced at the start of the election campaign, which should also come at a price and introduce volatility into the market.

Text: Stephanie Rigamonti
Editing: Gabriela Guedes
Image: Vinicius Martins/Mover
Comments: [email protected]

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