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Brazilian military in the politics of the 21st century – 06/14/2022



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In recent years, the core principles of democracy have been seriously shaken in their foundations and are constantly under attack, struggling to prove their relevance at the dawn of the 21st century.

Mario Vargas Llosa, a hardened liberal who was introduced to Marxism in his youth, argued that the frivolity of politics was one of the symptoms of a greater evil that afflicted modern society.

What big evil is Vargas Llosa dealing with?

Disbelief in the effectiveness of public and private leaders who are unable to find solutions to the problems of democracy.

Strengthening the ideologists of ethereal causes, propagandists of divisive and old theses.

The collapse of the international scenario, which resumes the nationalism that prevailed in the 19th century, which impedes cooperation as an instrument of world development.

This greater evil has affected in the same way the realm of military power in the great democracies.

Older theoretical formulations, such as those of Samuel Huntington (“SOLDIER AND THE STATE”) or Alfred Stepan (“THE MILITARY IN POLITICS”, a title borrowed for this article), which dealt with civilian control of the armed forces, have also cracked in their basis. academic foundations.

The American democratic tradition of mutual respect between civilians and the military, with the independence of the positions of these social bodies, has strengthened over the years, becoming a standard in the Western world.

A recent example of this institutional strength comes from General Mark Milley (Chief of the General Staff of the US Armed Forces), who played a critical role in containing a popular uprising when the Capitol was taken over by supporters of former President Donald Trump.

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However, even in “America” ​​there is growing instability in relations between civilians and the military.

On December 17, 2021, The Washington Post published an op-ed by three retired generals expressing their concern about the bloody conflict, including with the Armed Forces as one of the contenders, in the upcoming 2024 presidential election.

Here in Brazil, the participation of the armed forces in political rantings dates back to the 19th century. During the 20th century they were called to act, with success or failure, at 22, 24, 30, 35, 37, 45, 54, 55, 61, 63 , 64.

In 1985, after a period of military governments, an alignment emerged in the Armed Forces that closed in bowls and sought to professionalize its cadres as a way to prevent politics in the barracks.

In the 2010s, a political scenario shocked the social environment, bringing millions of people to the streets in protest.

These movements have their origin in political, legal and moral deviations, uncovered in countless cases by the professional press.

Part of the population, faced with a discrepancy between what they believed and what was practiced in the national manuals, again thought about the participation of the Armed Forces directly in the political arena.

Renaissance of the 20th century.

It was the so-called “constitutional military intervention”.

Although the military was alleged to have been directly involved in the course of events, they remained committed to constitutional precepts and, even at the urging of moldy vivans camped outside the barracks, did not take on the mission of defiance of the rule of law.

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The few actions that were carried out on the political field by the Armed Forces were aimed only at satisfying the slogan of legality, legitimacy and stability, used as a vaccine against the radicalization of ideas.

Changes in the political scenario were made, as befits a democratically mature country, by the desire of the voters, revealed in the elections in 2018.

The winning government sought support from military cadres to fill areas of federal administration that it said needed an ideological reorientation.

Unfortunately, little by little, a perception of a symbiosis between the government and the armed forces has formed in the public mind, thanks to the large number of military personnel in positions previously held by civilians, as well as statements by the incumbent president that strengthen the emotional connection.

We come into 2022, three months before the elections, with the daily feeling that relations between the powers are on the verge of breaking.

To the necessary balance between the three forces, the theory accepted since the 18th century, one more ingredient would need to be added today to avoid the collapse of institutionalism: the serenity of motivation of leaders with a genuine detachment from position.

Although recent movements in the political arena are not about seeking calm, the Armed Forces, sometimes called upon to moderate major matters (without understanding the wording), cannot fall into the trap of becoming involved in these disputes.

The history of the 20th century shows how fate can be an executioner with a military establishment in these situations.

Experience has shown that it is difficult for the armed forces to take on the role of vanguard of non-institutional groups and then remain on the sidelines when the political goals of those who promoted them have been achieved.

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I trust our military leaders.

They keep the hardships they went through.

They know how difficult it was to restore the public’s trust.

They learned that the siren’s mesmerizing song does not bring good luck.

They would not embark on a gamble that might stain their respected uniforms.

It would be a sad surprise if a movement in this direction were started and received support. institutional military.

This would contribute to the bloody split of society and the fratricidal separation of men and women in military uniform.

I do not believe in such a possibility.

In the last election round, the vote decided the political fate of the country with an ideological shift.

In the next round, only voting will once again decide the fate of Brazilian society.

Peace and goodness!

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The politician weighs Ibovespa, the best predictions for VIIA3 and other events of the day



The politician weighs Ibovespa, the best predictions for VIIA3 and other events of the day

High global inflation and rising bets that the world will face an economic recession scenario continue to feed the financial market bears in the four corners of the world, monopolizing investor attention.

Even in a scenario marked by strong risk aversion, Wall Street’s major indexes took a breather from bleeding and saw a ray of hope in the weaker data on the US economy: the stock exchanges broke a series of three consecutive losses.

B3, however, still sees no reason to dream of better days – the news coming out of Brazil actually complicates matters further.

If the discussion about a more significant intervention in Petrobras (PETR4) has become softer, President Jair Bolsonaro again caused irritation this morning by publicly defending a 200 reais increase in Auxílio Brasil.

This and other public spending promises have been circulated in recent days, and while the Union has not released any other details, it is enough to allay the fears of a heavily indebted country without a financial balance.

Although Ibovespa has followed Wall Street’s rise this Friday (24), breathing has become shorter and risk aversion has intensified – inflation continues to show strength that could force our Central Bank to extend monetary tightening.

While the New York stock exchanges jumped about 3%, the main B3 index rose 0.60% to 98,672 points and fell 1.15% on the week. The spot dollar rose 0.44% to R$5.2527, gaining 2.11% over the past five sessions.

See everything that affected the markets this Fridayincluding corporate news highlights and Ibovespa’s best and worst performing stocks.

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Mayan Caesar leaves ostracism and is considered a vice in RJ – 06/24/2022 – Poder



Mayan Caesar leaves ostracism and is considered a vice in RJ - 06/24/2022 - Poder

Having accumulated electoral defeats since 2008 when he left Rio de Janeiro’s mayor’s office, 77-year-old Councilor César Maia (PSDB) left the political ostracism he lived in to become the focus of controversy this year between pre-candidates for the state government.

Federal Deputy Marcelo Freixo (PSB-RJ) invited Maya to become his deputy as a candidate for the state government. The same post was offered to the former mayor by the city’s current president, Eduardo Páez (PSD), to be led by former OAB president Felipe Santa Cruz (PSD).

The former mayor delegated negotiations on his behalf to his son, Rodrigo Maia, who chairs the PSDB-RJ.

To Sheet he explained the reason for the interest in his name in this election as follows: “Perhaps because of the need for a brand experience.”

Both Freijo and Santa Cruz never held leadership positions. The PSB MP is also trying to expand his alliance with the center parties in order to disassociate himself from the image of a radical left that has been formed as a result of his 16-year affiliation with the PSOL.

Maya says she sees no contradiction in her possible commitment to a candidacy led by a left-wing politician.

“My political life has always fluctuated between left and center. When I came to the NFL, the goal was for the NFL to move to the center. That’s why Jamie Lerner and I migrated together,” he says.

PSOL, a member of Freixo’s alliance, said they were against his appointment as vice president.

The accusation of the deputy in the growth of the militia is also not a hindrance for the former mayor. He claims that the deputy was right.

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“The first of these allowed police officers to live in communities. But later dynamics showed that Freixo was right,” the former mayor said.

Three-term mayor of Rio de Janeiro Maya left his post without much approval. His administration was the target of constant criticism in the following elections, including from former political godchildren such as Páez.

“My assessment is that the criticism during this election was skewed by popularity issues at the time. The affairs of politics. Possibly due to being in government for too long.”

The former mayor unsuccessfully attempted to hold elections for the Senate three times in 2010, 2014 and 2018. At the latter, he led the voting intent polls ahead of the election, but was overtaken by Arolde de Oliveira (died 2020). whose start was similar to that of Wilson Witzel in state government.

Maya attributes the Senate’s defeats to its lack of domestic votes. He is currently serving his third term as an adviser, a position he has always been elected to as one of the top four voters.

Council member Tarcisio Mota (PSOL) classifies César Maia’s term as “independent”.

“He is not 100% faithful to the directives of the Paez administration. He usually defends the directives of government officials like us. As far as economic and fiscal directives are concerned, we often disagree. But we have a lot of dialogues. adviser,” said Mota, in contrast to Freixo, who was elected by the former mayor as deputy.

Cesar Maia has been assembled since the start of the new coronavirus pandemic and is still participating virtually in city council meetings.

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A pending alliance with Freixo could leave the candidacy defended by Páez, César Maia’s former political godson, whose departure contributed to the former mayor’s downfall, isolated.

Paez claims to “take his word” from Rodrigo Maia. According to him, the PSDB promised to support Felipe Santa Cruz. PSD’s alliance with PDT, announced in February, is also under threat.

“Cesar is a very qualified team, very prepared and has a lot to add to the list,” Paez said.

Maya says she does not regret past criticism from Paez. “Because I was always discussing ideas, this personal question never crossed my mind.”

However, he makes it clear that his son is negotiating and that he no longer has frequent contact with the current mayor. “Not. His relationship with Rodrigo Maia has always been constant, even after the 2012 elections.”

He also has no plans to share a platform with former President Lula, Freixo’s top electoral leader. “PSDB-RJ representation depends on Deputy Rodrigo Maia,” says the former mayor.

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Politician puts pressure on Ibovespa again, Binance suspends withdrawals, and Inter falls to debut; check the highlights of the day



Politician puts pressure on Ibovespa again, Binance suspends withdrawals, and Inter falls to debut;  check the highlights of the day

If in the early months of the year the political scenario was just an addendum to financial market discussions, now Brasilia is the absolute hero, and there hasn’t been a single day in the last few weeks where local investors manage to veer off course. events in the federal capital.

The crisis in Petrobras (PETR4), which is still waiting to be resolved, is just one of the fires. The closeness of the election also entails the government’s attempt to approve a “kindness package” that will heavily impact public accounts, which are still struggling to recover from the coronavirus hit.

At the moment, an increase in the Auxílio Brasil payment from 400 to 600 reais, an extension of the gasoline voucher, an allowance of up to 1,000 reais for truck drivers, and even a public disaster decree are being discussed. .

On Wall Street, investors received weaker-than-expected US economic data as a sign that the Federal Reserve will have to be careful if it really wants to avoid a recession. The Nasdaq was up 1.62%, the S&P 500 was up 0.95% and the Dow Jones was up 0.64%.

Ibovespa, however, faced more headaches and ended the day down 1.45% to 98,080 points, but the retail and tech sectors benefited from an easier yield curve and were the highlights. The dollar is already in sight ended the session up 1.02% to 5.2298 reais.

See everything that affected the markets this Thursdayincluding corporate news highlights and Ibovespa’s best and worst performing stocks.

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