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Political dispute in 2022 will determine the direction of exchange sectors | Variable income

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Political dispute in 2022 will determine the direction of exchange sectors |  Variable income

In addition to the expected change in monetary policy in developed countries with already planned increases in interest rates, mainly in the United States, Brazilian stock market sectors will experience 2022 marked by political controversy, according to market analysts. The return of ideological polarity in 2018 will bring strong volatility and can scare off an investor, mostly foreigners, from risky in Brazil, which could lead to a likely strengthening of fixed income positions

For those who do not want to miss any opportunity that arises in the middle of this foggy path, like blue chips (shares associated with large companies with consolidated performance in their sectors of activity, high liquidity and good financial and operating results) should be the safest – or least dangerous – attraction, with particular attention to exporters, dollarized

2021 received the 2020 bill

In 2021, the markets have coped with the impact of all the measures that were taken in 2020.due to the economic crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in both developed and developing countries, which made their monetary policy more flexible, with lower interest rates and various monetary and tax incentive programs, “he summarizes … Philip Villegas, strategist Excellent investment… “But everything has a price and the bill comes.”

The result of this equation was bottlenecks in production chains, a mismatch between supply and demand, and inflation. “The year was harder for developing countriesthat was supposed to tackle the issue of economic growth, which was less affected in the developed countries, which were a little more cautious about liquidity, but the fact is that inflation has affected all countries, ”emphasizes Villegas.

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Filipe Villegas, Strategist at Genial Investimentos – Photo: Disclosure / Genial

In Brazil, concrete facts reinforced the negative scenario: PEC dos Precatórios, Auxílio Brasil and the cost ceiling crisis… “It was a ‘surprise’ that sparked a rift in confidence between investors and the government, which took advantage of the second half of the year to focus on 2022, due to the presidential elections, with measures to increase its popularity,” says Villegas.

2022: a (very) uncertain future

International stage sets part of the tone in the attractiveness of risky assets in Brazil, especially in the stock market. The resumption of tighter monetary policy, especially in The United States should encourage foreign capital flight from developing countries.

This movement will be especially driven by national policy scenarios, in addition to the role of the central bank, continuing the cycle of high Selicz, base interest rates – strongly favoring fixed income.

“The political scenario is still very open about candidacies,” says Villegas. “With every survey that highlights a more market-oriented name will increase the attractiveness of Brazilian assets… And vice versa.”

The recommendation of a genius strategist: “have a conservative stance with good fixed income investments“. However, if the investor “does not want to stay away from variable income and miss out on good opportunities that may occur even in this scenario of great uncertainty, best placed in large companies, blue chipswithin consolidated sectors that somehow manage to separate from the Brazilian economy, i.e. dollarized exporters who may have lower volatility “

Despite the fact that we had a completely different scenario due to heightened competition, banks are also a sector that can be attractive, according to Villegas, but there are some factors that could negatively affect the sector. “Banks are gateways for foreign investors, but also an exit“, – he notes. “The electoral scenario can greatly influence this movement. Moreover, the scenario for the loan should also get a little more complicatedtaking into account the growth of the level of family debt ”.

Our purchasing is targeted at companies subject to non-discretionary consumption, which is basic consumption that should occur even with lower disposable income and higher interest rates.“, states Thomas Awad, founding partner of the manager 3R Investmentsstrengthening this positions will largely depend on “how to design the election result.“. In the opposite direction he indicates the sale of shares in sectors “very sensitive to loans and / or interest, or sectors in which competition is very high.“.

“possible victory of the third candidate is likely to be a catalyst positive because it represents real change., with more rationality, a more realistic economic vision and a desire to carry out a minimum of reforms that are more than necessary, ”says Awad.

Like Villegas, Awad also recommends a defensive stance for investors. “focusing on capital preservation, prepared for the worst, and in the possibilities of relative valuebut be prepared to switch to a more optimistic approach if conditions turn out to be favorable. ”

also for Phil Soares, Head of Stock Analysis Department Orama, “2022 will be a year with a reduced business outlookboth due to the recent hike in interest rates and due to events such as elections and the FIFA World Cup. [de futebol]”. In his opinion, the high volatility that the political scenario should bring will be has a stronger influence on state-owned companies such as Petrobras and Eletrobras, the privatization process is still ongoing.

Soares also emphasizes that Product companies “must benefit from the high dollars and high prices of their products.“. He bet on retail and consumer companies, especially those with lower real income. Sectors basic services such as gas, electricity and sewerage, in addition to the banking sector, should have less volatility, according to analyst Órama.

– Photo: Getty Images.

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Barbudo defends CPI Petrobras and refutes the political point of view argument: when it was CPI Covid, nobody cared, right? :: News MT

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Barbudo defends CPI Petrobras and refutes the political point of view argument: when it was CPI Covid, nobody cared, right?  :: News MT
Federal MP Nelson Barbudo (PL) said the issue of protecting the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry (CPI) to investigate the actions of Petrobras has been appeased within the PL, the party of President Jair Bolsonaro. According to him, the group wants transparency and does not have a political view: “When it came to the opening of the CPI on Covid, no one was worried, right? If there were pre-election elections, if there weren’t any, the Senate, in my opinion, to the detriment of Bolsonaro’s election campaign, opened [a CPI]”.

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The secretary says the creation of the consumer price index is a “political decision” but points out that the pricing of Petrobras must change.

As for Barbudo, Petrobras needs to explain the successive increases and explain why it is not using its “social purpose”. He even stated that he even considers the adjustments “a diversion that is carried out before the presidential campaign.”

“Is it not possible to increase oil by 14%? The dollar did not rise in price by 14%, the barrel of oil did not rise in price by 14%, so why did it rise in price by 14%? In 1.4%, 14%. We did everything with the leaders to remove ICMS, which is 24% in some places, the other day Petrobras gives a 14% increase, I mean … Petrobras also has to analyze the social function, this is what I hit hard,” he defended.

MP Bolsonaro also said that Bolsonaro’s point of view has not changed, he first said that high prices are due to taxes, and now he is turning to Petrobras. Barbudo said the government has held a task force and is trying to act on all fronts.

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“The government had a task force to remove ICMS from the states and replace it in the hope that the price would drop at the gas station. So Petrobras comes in and doesn’t cooperate? We will work on Petrobras and see what happens, because we need people to have a working position, regardless of the election period. Now Petrobras is growing by 14% every 30 days… in 90 days Brazil is not viable,” he lamented.

In yet another attempt, the MP said he would submit a proposal to the President to submit a PEC or LP for Petrobras to pay the fuel freight with a portion of the profits made in the first two quarters of 2022. Thus, according to him, all municipalities will receive fuel at the same price.

“Let’s take this idea from the president to see if the board accepts… [] another way to try download. What we are trying to do is to provide working conditions for the Brazilian people, especially for agriculture in Mato Grosso, tractors, big machines, agriculture. [usam gasolina e] Soon it will be unbearable. We, representing our people, must take action, whether it is with the CPI, with the PEC, with the PL, no matter what happens, we need to lower the price of oil,” he concluded.

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For Damaso, politicians must act transparently and honestly in order to earn the respect of the population.

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For Damaso, politicians must act transparently and honestly in order to earn the respect of the population.

“I want to be a politician only as long as I have the respect of the population, and there is only one way to earn respect: to do serious work, transparently and honestly.” The statement was made by pre-gubernatorial candidate Osires Damaso (PSC) in a press interview in Araguaín during his last visit to the city, this Friday 24. In addition to meeting with communication specialists, he met with the authorities and political leaders of the municipality to strengthen his name in a dispute for state government.

Asked about his motives for running for president, Damaso talked about his experiences as a three-term state deputy, Legislative Assembly president, as a businessman, and the beginnings of his personal journey. “And this experience allowed me to get acquainted with the resources that reach the state, their potential and the real needs of the inhabitants of Tocantins,” he explained.

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“We need a government that truly runs an administration focused on economic development, growth and the quality of life of our people. We need industrialized, modern and respected Tocantinas. I am sure that with my experience I will have excellent management, giving people real opportunities,” Damaso said.

The pre-nominee also advocates a partnership between state government and municipalities to develop public policies that primarily benefit those living in situations of social vulnerability. “I want to implement the program in partnership with city halls, municipal councils and leaders so that we can deliver basic food packages to the population, restoring the mood of many families. But, in addition, we need a state program so that these people can enter the labor market,” he stressed.

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As for the progress of the campaign, Damaso stressed that he was “very pleased with the receptivity of the population and the support received.” Among his main supporters are state deputy Junior Geo (PSC) and former mayor of Palmas, Carlos Amastha (PSB), who served two terms. The joints are in full swing and new weight bearings should be announced soon.

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Marcos Braz responds to social media politics after Maracanã controversy

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Marcos Braz responds to social media politics after Maracanã controversy

BUT Negative disagreement with Vasco over the use of Maracana rocked social media on this Sabbath day. Tarcisio Motta, Councilor of the City of Rio and federal candidate, published a publication saying that the stadium is for all fans. An irritated Marcos Braz, Vice President of Flamengo Football Club and also an adviser, responded to the politician.

+ Who is better: Botafogo or Fluminense? Watch the player vote in the LANCE newsroom!

– Maracana is public! It was built and renovated (several times) with government money! Its concession cannot run counter to the interests of all citizens. Denying the consortium is baseless, absurd and FORCE US TO ACTIVATE MP. Maraca for all fans,” Tarcisio wrote on Twitter.

– When it comes to paying operating costs, no, – said the vice-president of Flamengo.

+ The state government observes the violation of Flamengo and Fluminense and requests the release of Maracana for Vasco

The controversy began after Vasco applied for the loan of Maracanã against Sport in a match valid for Serie B on 3 July. A stadium consortium led by Flamengo and Fluminense rejected the request.

The clubs’ decision caused a huge uproar, and the state government decided to connect to the track. The stadium soap opera is divided and promises to open new chapters in the coming days.

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