Posted at 11:05 this Saturday (24)

Just eight days before the election, tensions are rising between groups led by Serra Taglia mayor Marcia Conrado and former mayor Luciano Duque. Marcia made a moral commitment to ensure the victory of the PSB candidate Danilo Cabral in the Serra Tagliad and, therefore, to win a lot of votes for her ally, MP Fernando Monteiro.

In fact, the task is not an easy one. In the Instituto Imape/Farol poll, Cabral got 12.7% and Marilia Arraes, backed by Luciano Duque and Sebastian Oliveira, got 37.4%.

Among the issues with the denial is Danilo’s vote to impeach former President Dilma Rousseff. Many have not forgotten. Especially the historical members of the PT, who hold positions in the municipal government, but do not accompany the mayor in a “red-yellow” euphoria. Fernando Monteiro is another problem for Marcia, in the same poll he has half the intentions to vote the candidate Valdemar Oliveira, brother of MP Sebastian Oliveira (read here).

LUCIAN DUKE

Despite the “blows” from people associated with Marcia who took advantage of her government and now support “alien” candidates, Luciano Duque’s position seems more comfortable, but no less tense. The former mayor should have a “super vote” in Serra Talhada, but it is not yet known how the “infidels” associated with the mayor acted, who can, yes; “sabotages” part of the former mayor’s plans. Snooker is like this: what will the Marcia/Duke relationship be like after the election. Place your bets.

Connected

One of the coordinators of the Axis of Political Strategy, political scientist António Fernández emphasizes that the low performance of the platforms and allies associated with President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the states is due to several factors: the lack of strategy in the 2020 elections, the way the president has dealt with the covid pandemic -19 and the economic agenda. The reflection was felt in the Senate candidates of former ministers Bolsonaro, Damáres Alves (Republicans) in the Federal District, Gilson Machado (PL) in Pernambuco and Rogerio Marinho in Rio Grande do Norte. None of them top the polls.

States have examples such as former minister Joao Roma (PL) in Bahia, who is not even considered in the second round, and Onyx Lorenzoni (PL), who, in addition to not leading in Rio Grande do Sul, has split from former governor Eduardo Leite (PSDB). “Never before has a president challenged re-election after ’88 with such a high rejection rate,” the analyst says.

Watch the interview he gave Congress in focus:

Do you think the poor performance of the president’s allies in the state elections is due to Bolsonaro’s apparent lack of strategy in the 2020 elections?
These are different situations. In 2020, the pandemic was the main campaign agenda, and we saw voters choose more traditional names that could solve problems. The experience of public life again generated positive moments, and in 2018 and 2016. outsider was a candidate at the moment. Bolsonaro is still in 2018, an election with very different characteristics from the traditional ones.

So what did the president miss?
He [Bolsonaro] seemed to forget that all state (government and Senate) election planning involves municipal forces, support bases for state and federal deputies that are linked to mayors, councilors and local leaders. This is one of the factors to choose now, crosslinked from 2020, among a wide range of important variables. And in this aspect, it was obvious that the president’s lack of strategy in the municipal elections prevented the construction of competitive local platforms for candidates from his political spectrum in these elections.

Did Bolsonaro’s handling of the pandemic contribute to this failure?
The president’s bad behavior during the pandemic has been constant. Of the 13 executive candidates he supported in 2020, only two were elected, and in smaller towns. Support in 2020 has been scattered across some applications, with no real mobilization. In such an election, unlike the atypical scenario that was the 2018 election, support, platforms, TV and radio time, and campaign resources matter much more.

Aside from the poor performance in the 2020 municipal elections, what prompted Bolsonaro to record low electoral performance in this dispute?
The government’s countless absurdities during the pandemic have had a more lasting impact on the electorate, remaining part of the voter’s memory when they think of the president. Bolsonaro’s refusal (LP) starts to increase from the beginning of 2021 and reaches over 50% at the end of August without declining further. This rejection is greater among women who no longer approve of their actions during the pandemic with “imbrochável” refrains and other sexist and disrespectful behavior. Along with this, we have an economic problem, people are starving, and the amount of aid is not enough to buy a basic food basket in many capitals. Fuel deflation is hitting the middle class hardest, and we’re still in a situation where food prices remain high. The increase in the number of Auxílio Brasil or other measures taken by Bolsonaro in relation to this part of the electorate did not have the expected effect. He argues with those whom the electorate most often recognizes as the “father” of this social policy. Who do voters trust most to keep these programs going? The question of a date before December greatly spoiled the positive effect expected by the presidential campaign, in addition to electoral proximity, which does not hide the reasons for the movement from the voter. Never before has a president run for re-election since 1988 with such a sharp rejection.

Where are the President’s allies doing best?
In Rio de Janeiro, where the president has made his political career and is his electoral core, despite being associated with Lula, he has more power than São Paulo, Tarcisio de Freitas (Republicans). Other state contests, in which the candidate he supports are in the lead, keep some distance from the presidential race. They are candidates for re-election, like Ratinho Jr. (PSD) in Parana and Gladson Cameli (PP) in Acre. In Santa Catarina, the president is supported by Carlos Moises (Republicans), Jorginho Melo (PL) and Espiridian Amin (PP). And in Rio Grande do Sul, Onyx Lorenzoni (PL) faced Eduardo Leite (PSDB) in a dispute.

As for the Senate, are the President’s allies doing better?
In the Senate, those who lead the polls more easily are names more PT-related such as Camilo Santana (PT) in Ceara, Wellington Diaz (PT) in Piauí, Teresa Leitao (PT) in Pernambuco, Marcio França (PSB) in São Paulo, Renan Filho (MDB) in Alagoas and Flávio Dino (PSB) in Maranhão. Cleitinho Azevedo (PSC) in Minas Gerais, Magno Malta (PL) in Espirito Santo, Wellington Fagundes (PL) in Mato Grosso and Tereza Cristina (PP) in Mato Grosso do Sul are the candidates closest to Bolsonaro, who are doing well, especially the ex-minister of agriculture and senatorial candidate from Mato Grosso, who is seeking re-election. In proportional elections, the expectation of a good result is higher, given the orientation of the parties of the presidential base to the bench in the chamber.

Other candidates who have stuck to Bolsonaro in government – such as Gilson Macho and Damares Alves (former ministers) – have failed to take off in the campaign. Lack of strategy?
There are several factors that ultimately influence. In the case of Gilson Machado (PL), for example, he is competing in Pernambuco, a state closely linked to former President Lula (PT), where Bolsonaro has about 20% of the vote in the latest polls. In other words, simply deceiving Bolsonaro is not enough. Damares (Republicans) competes with Flavia Arruda (PL), who represent the same political field, both from the first echelon of the Bolsonaro (PL) government. Damares (Republicans) is ideologically closer to the president, but he officially supports Flavia Arruda (PL), who has much more influence and connections with DF voters since she was elected as a federal deputy in 2018. Murão (Republicans) in Rio Grande do Sul Sul contest the far right of the Gaucho electorate with Ana Amelia Lemos (SDP), better known to the electorate. The winner is Olivio Dutra (Portugal), who leads the race for a seat in the State Senate.

Senate candidate Alvaro Diaz (Podemos) reiterated that professional work in the Senate is for experienced politicians, not for trainees. The senator’s remark was a response to União Brasil candidate Sergio Moro, who announced that he would create Lava Jato in the National Congress, without knowing, however, the real functions of the senator, i.e., not within the competence of the Senate. Alvaro made the announcement after being asked about voting against a project that would set rules for social media, the so-called “Fake News Law”.

Fake News I
Alvaro Diaz said the bill, which makes it a crime to finance and spread fake news, was hastily sent by senators to the Chamber of Deputies. Diaz claimed to have voted against approval of the project in 2020, believing that the proposal required a deeper analysis of the topic with more elaborate proposals.

Fake news 2
The senator said the law was “a fine line between free speech and lying” and commented, “Obviously you cannot allow yourself to ridicule and attack people with impunity in the name of free speech. . We are victims, we are victims, of course, I want a good law.”

Beaches of Parana
After the transformation of the edge of the beaches of Cayoba and Matinos, the feeding service of the beaches of Parana is transferred to other resorts in the region. The Galileo Galilei dredge dumps thousands of cubic meters of sand every day onto the sandy strip of the Flamingo Resort, the first just after the Matinos River, next to the Fish Market, and is already changing the face of the region. The work was completed by 45%.

spring
Spring started this Thursday, the 22nd, and will end on December 21st. According to Simepar, the forecast of dynamic and statistical climate models indicates an increase in the La Niña phenomenon with a probability of 80 to 90%, which will affect the climate in Paraná, similar to what was recorded in August and the first half of September. but shorter,” said Simepara meteorologist Reinaldo Knaib.

PSS
The Municipality of Francisco Beltrao will open registration for the Simplified Selection Process (PSS) on Monday (26). There are 38 vacancies for the formation of a reserve register of temporary activities in various areas and functions. According to the prefecture, classification will be made on the basis of the education and professional qualifications of those enrolled. The notice is now available for review. The registration fee will be 20 reais for all positions and must be paid by bank deposit or Pix. Candidates who are in a situation of social vulnerability can apply free of charge by presenting the Unified Register form.

Cassation
The impeachment trial of former PT adviser Renato Freitas has reached the Federal Supreme Court (STF). Lawyers for Guilherme Gonçalves and António Carlos de Almeida Castro, Kakay, defending PT, filed a lawsuit to try to reverse the impeachment of Renato Freitas and make him eligible to run in this election, as the Paraná Regional Electoral Court (TRE-PR) rejected the PT candidate.

Recurso without TSE
State candidate Moasir Fadel (PSD) has announced that he is already filing an appeal with the Higher Electoral Court (TSE) to guarantee his candidacy in this year’s elections. The announcement came shortly after the decision of the District Electoral Court of Paraná (TRE-PR), which accepted the request to reject his candidacy on the grounds that he was ineligible. “We will calmly convey the appeal to Brasilia. My campaign remains calm and serene. We continue to believe in justice,” he said.

Emancipation
The municipality of Kambara has completed 98 years of political and administrative emancipation. Deputy Luis Claudio Romanelli (PSD) and Mayor Neto Haggi (MDB) commemorate the date, remembering what made the city stand out. “Cambará is connected to the future and has investments in all sectors,” said the MP. “This is 98 years of history built by the first inhabitants of different nationalities. Kambara is a reference to Parana,” emphasizes Neto Haggi.

indecisiveness
A survey conducted by the Instituto Opinião shows that 83% of those polled said that the choice of a candidate for the Palacio do Planalto is final. In the presidential race, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (Portugal) appears with 45% against Jair Bolsonaro (PL)’s 33%. As for choosing a candidate for federal deputies, out of 2,000 people interviewed by the institute by phone, only 28% said they had chosen a candidate for the chamber of deputies in more than a month.

Write down
The survey was conducted from 18 to 20 September. 2,000 people over the age of 16 were interviewed by telephone in 114 municipalities across the country. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2% with a reliability of the overall survey result of 95%. The poll is registered with the Higher Electoral Court under number BR-09430/2022.

IR return
The Federal Tax Service released this Friday advice on the fifth and final installment of this year’s income tax refund. The lot also includes residual refunds from previous years. On the 30th, the tax office will transfer 1.9 billion reais to 1,220,501 taxpayers. Of this amount, R$ 221,130,324.62 will be paid to taxpayers with legal priority. The rest of the lot will be allocated to 1,159,183 non-priority taxpayers who filed returns for previous years.

Request
The consultation can be done on the website of the Federal Tax Service. The taxpayer simply clicks on the “My Income Tax” box and then “Consult a Refund”. The consultation can also be carried out in the Meu Imposto de Renda application, available for smartphones on Android and iOS systems.

Accountability
The High Electoral Court (TSE) has identified suspicious transfers worth 605 million reais after reviewing partial campaign accountability submitted by candidates between 9 and 13 September. A total of 59,072 cases of potentially illegal donations or spending were identified, the Electoral Justice said. Now the Ministry of Elections (MPE) must investigate these suspicious cases. A new round of data intersection will take place after the final submission of first round reports, which must be submitted by all applicants by November 2nd.

The column was published simultaneously in 20 newspapers and related portals. Find out more at www.adipr.com.br.