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Eliane Cantanhede talks political scenario for 2022 at the Vitoria summit

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Eliane Cantanhede talks political scenario for 2022 at the Vitoria summit
GloboNews journalist Eliane Cantanhede and A Gazeta Politics columnist Leticia Gonçalves have been invited to discuss the political scenario for the coming year. Credit: Disclosure

To facilitate discussion about the political and economic prospects of Espirito Santo and the country, Gazette Network starts this Wednesday (24th), Vitória Summit – 2021 Leadership Summit. The schedule of events, which this year will be held in a hybrid manner due to the Covid-19 pandemic, will last until Friday (26th) and will be broadcast live. in the newspaper.

At the start of the event, broadcast on this page, the President of the Rede Gazeta, Café Lindenberg, will open the opening at 8:30 am. GloboNews journalist Eliane Cantanhede and A Gazeta Politics columnist Leticia Gonçalves are then invited to discuss the political scenario for next year, which will even be marked by presidential elections.

Then, from 10:00 AM, Bom Dia ES from TV Gazeta and CBN Cotidiano from CBN Vitória Mario Bonella will act as facilitator Espiritu Santo Yearbook Panel… This year’s theme is “Infrastructure and Logistics – Paths to the Future”. To frame the discussion, Suzano President Walter Schalka, Jones Santos Neves Institute Integration Director (IJSN) Pablo Lira and President of the Infrastructure and Energy Council of the Espiritu Santo Industry Federation (Finland), Gustavo Barbosa, guests.

To close the chart for the first day, starting at 11:15 am, former Central Bank President Arminio Fraga and former Espiritu Santo Governor Paulo Hartung will compile a panel entitled Economic Trends for 2022 and Impact on the Presidential Election.

TO LEARN MORE

FULL PROGRAMMING

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 24.

  • 8:30:
    Opening –
    Café Lindenberg, President of the Rede Gazeta
  • 8:45 am:
    Lecture – Political Scenario 2022 – Eliane Cantanhead, Journalist

  • 10h:
    ES Yearbook Group – Representatives of the Jones Institute dos Santos Neves, Susano and Findes

  • 11:15 am:
    Economics Panel – Arminio Fraga, former President of the Central Bank; Paulo Hartung, former Governor of ES

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 25.

  • 8:30: ES and MG Panel: Challenges and Opportunities for 2022 – Renato Casagrande, ES Governor; Romeu Zema, Governor of MG; Teco Medina, economist and columnist for CBN
  • 10h: Panel “How to Bet on Innovative Initiatives” – Silvio Meira, Scientist, Professor and Entrepreneur; Raquel Cardamom, Unicamp researcher and smart city expert
  • 11h40: Panel “Retraining to Learn: Challenges for People and Organizations” – Zeka de Mello, Philosopher, Professor, Doctor of Divinity from the Gregorian University of Rome and Former Priest
  • 12h40: Dinner

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 26.

  • 18:30: Expedient’s End – Teco Medina, Dan Stulbach and Jose Godoy interview Nelson Mott
  • 20:30: Happy Hour – Vanessa da Mata Show

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Political Chat Highlights Paraiba’s Economic Development Issues

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Political Chat Highlights Paraiba's Economic Development Issues

In the year when the people of Paraiba go to the polls, the debate about the economic development of the state is gaining momentum. Where are we going? What are our problems and bottlenecks? What projects are transformative in the short and long term? When will we leave worldly problems behind?

In this edition, we are talking to Eric Figueiredo of Conceição, Paraiba, President of the Institute for Applied Economic Research, affiliated with the Ministry of Economy.

IPEA assists the government in developing the country’s public policy. In-depth knowledge of the reality of the semi-arid region of the Northeast and Paraiba, UFPB Professor of Economics with a post-doctoral degree from the University of Tennessee, USA, advocates development based on local wealth, environment, effective participation of the private sector, effective investment in basic and vocational education.

The list of solutions includes innovative projects such as those that sell carbon credits in semi-arid areas and generate resources through recycling and sanitary landfills; in addition to the efficient use of renewable energy and ore mining with the installation of export processing zones. Talk to us.

Also listen on the CBN website

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Research and political science rule out a turning point in elections – 02.07.2022 – Poder

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Research and political science rule out a turning point in elections - 02.07.2022 - Poder

No one dares to say with complete certainty, but the polling figures and the interpretation of the movements a little more than three months before the elections rule out or at least reduce the possibility that the conflict will no longer focus on Luiz Inácio Lula yes. Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

It is precisely the time before elections that prompts caution, as polls like Datafolha’s at the end of June indicate trends at the time they were taken, but, as the cliché goes, they do not replace poll results.

Other deadlines reinforce the diagnosis that new favorites are unlikely to emerge, while also calling into question Bolsonaro’s recovery conditions and Lula’s ability to manage his advantage.

Comparisons with previous presidential races make this year’s race unique in many ways, but it is a reminder of a constant risk: the hypothesis of the unexpected and even the exceptional, such as Bolsonaro’s blow in 2018.

“Given only the usual elements of market analysis, it is difficult to imagine any changes in the scenario,” says political scientist Carolina de Paula. “Only if we consider external events like stabbings and the like,” she continues, referring to Uerj (Rio State University).

Even with the hardships caused by the wall, the sum of 75% of the intentions to vote for Lulu (47%) and Bolsonaro (28%), presidential candidates such as Ciro Gomes (PDT, 8%), Andre Janones (Avante, 2%). ) and Simona Tebet (MDB, 1%) remain hopeful that there is a long way to go before October 2nd.

Ciro uses the analogy that the votes that could have fallen into his hands are being held up today between the undecided and undecided voters of the two leaders. According to him, the population is in a “state of numbness and fear”, but will wake up.

In the same vein, Janones says that the vote will be decided at the last stage and that this will provoke a search for options. A federal MP from the state of Minas Gerais argues that people are hostage to the obligation to choose the least worse, but that will change.

Tebet tried to prove himself with a message of hope and appeasement. Chosen as the Third Path Poor Consensus Candidate, she is unknown to 77% of the population. The challenge is to rise in the polls and be seen as a viable alternative.

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The strategists of these campaigns resort to several arguments to support the idea that nothing guarantees that Lula will either be elected in the first round or will necessarily compete with Bolsonaro in the second. This, of course, does not count the threat of an electoral coup by the incumbent president.

Free advertising on radio and TV (which will run from August 26 to September 29), electorate fatigue from the polarization between Lula and Bolsonaro and the late awakening of part of the electorate for elections and the availability of options are cited. as possible turning points.

There are still those betting on Bolsonaro and Lula’s massive rejection (today 55% and 35% respectively) as a trigger for a reversal. Experts meet all assumptions with skepticism.

“Polls show a crystallization of the feeling that the competition will be between the two and that it will be necessary to keep one of them,” says Karolina.

The widespread use of social media, spurred on by the Bolsonaro, contributes to a permanent election climate, unlike the past, she said. The new reality tends to blur the importance of mandatory advertising in traditional media.

Predictions of the sustainability of the scenario are also based on the anticipation of the pre-election debate – first by a presidential mandate, and then by the rehabilitation of a member of the PT – and the unprecedented antagonism between charismatic politicians already in office. and can be evaluated empirically.

“Anything other than a confrontation between Lula and Bolsonaro seems increasingly unlikely to me,” says Humberto Dantas, coordinator of the graduate program in political science at the Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo. “With what we have today, there is little room for another phenomenon.”

For the researcher, the picture is nothing but a reflection of the national policy of recent years, in which the force of attraction of both prevailed. The inability of the centre-right to create a credible alternative has something to do with this.

At the same time, in the 2018 and 2014 elections, electoral intentions were more dispersed among the main candidates, which meant there was a greater chance of hesitation, falls and overtakes.

In the race four years ago, there was still a spoiling element on the horizon, the exchange of Lula, who was then arrested and denied entry, for Fernando Haddad on the PT ticket.

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The wave of underdogs and political renewal attributed to Bolsonaro has since subsided, as the 2020 municipal elections showed, dictated by powers such as governance experience.

This leads analysts to disapprove of comparisons to the succession of 2018 winning governors such as Romeu Zema (Novo-MG) and Wilson Witzel (PSC-RJ), who have been swept away by the Boltonar turmoil. It is clear that the reality is different now, both at the state and federal levels.

The combination of features leads to an assessment that the official campaign period is unlikely to undermine the permanence of Lula and Bolsonaro at the forefront. However, variations in their percentage due to predictable attacks from both sides are not ruled out.

“If Bolsonaro can create a miracle, he will have a chance to win. Otherwise, he will have to face great difficulties and he will have to rely on luck,” says sociologist and political scientist Antonio Lavareda from the Ipespe Research Institute.

History, he notes, shows that presidential candidates who have turned the tables have used trump cards (as in the case of Fernando Enrique Cardoso and the Real Plan in 1994), godfathers (Dilma Rousseff and Lula’s backing in 2010), or exceptional circumstances. (attack on Bolsonaro). who singled it out).

In the fight to stay in office until 2026, the chief executive is resorting to pre-election measures to try to cushion the effects of the economic crisis, which is more than the central agenda for this election. The big question is whether these gestures will have a short-term effect and affect the vote.

For analysts, Bolsonaro’s situation is critical because of this bias, but somewhat comfortable given the fact that he has a 25% to 30% vote intent and is not in danger of being squeezed out of second place by other rivals.

Variables in the presidential race

what’s posted today

  • Lula and Bolsonaro stack up together 75% of intent votes in the first roundwhile third place, Ciro Gomez, has 8%, according to Datafolha.

  • Lula reaches 37% in spontaneous studies and jumps to 47% in incentivized (when applicants’ names are submitted). Bolsonaro rose from 25% to 28%.

  • 70% of voters say they already fully resolved about their vote, according to Datafolha. The percentage is even higher among the voters of Lula and Bolsonaro (80%).

  • Determined to vote despite a series of setbacks, Bolsonaro 55% failure whoever voted for him at all, a stable exchange rate since March

What else can change

  • 27% of voters in a spontaneous poll say not knowing who to vote for, a rate that drops to 4% during the stimulation period. Zeros and spaces make up 7%. For 29%, their current choice may change

  • The Ciro and Tebet campaigns are betting on official campaign periodwhich will last a month and a half, starting on August 16, to convince doubters and hook more voters

  • opponents of the project polarization selector fatigue between Lula and Bolsonaro, which would lead to the search for other options, but both still represent the right base

  • Tebet and Janones familiar by 23% and 25% of voters, respectively, and expect to increase these figures in order to strengthen their intentions to vote.

  • leave the decision to vote for last hour has been a common occurrence in recent years, but analysts believe the scenario has crystallized early this time, contributing to a useful vote.

Doubts that hover

  • Bolsonaro will be able to catch his breath with pre-election activities try to lower fuel prices and increase Auxílio Brasil from 400 reais to 600 reais?

  • Alternative candidates will attract the attention of the voter and strengthen their indices a little over a month official campaign and schedule on TV and radio?

  • Candidates like Ciro, Tebet and Janones will seduce voters and growth in the polls to the extent of avoiding Lula’s victory in the first round or knocking Bolsonaro out of the second?

  • A little surprise could it spoil the scenario, whether it be a change in the list of competitors, a change in the mood of the electorate, or some other event from the realm of the incomprehensible?

  • An official campaign in which candidates exalt their virtues and attack rivals, significant influence performances by Lula and Bolsonaro?

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Three very difficult months will pass from here to the elections, the political scientist believes

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Sao Paulo. General Walter Braga Netto was in the news twice this Friday (1st), both related to the October elections. First, with the release of military speeches to businessmen, to whom he would repeat boss Jair Bolsonaro’s mantra that without vote auditing, “there will be no elections,” according to Malu Gaspar, a journalist from the globe. The threat would have been made on Friday (24) and would have “embarrassed” the leaders present.

The general was also mentioned in the media for officially leaving the presidential administration, where he had been since his dismissal from the Ministry of Defense in March. He is expected to become vice-president on Bolsonaro’s list in the October elections and will be one of the campaign coordinators along with his “zero 1” son Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).

Braga Netto’s new threat, though denied on the grounds that it was taken out of context, is just one of countless since 2019, uttered mostly by the head of government. Bolsonaro upped the ante last Saturday. At a religious event in Balneario Camboriu (South Carolina), he said that his “army is approaching 200 million people.” He promised that “if necessary – and it increasingly seems that it will be necessary – we will make the decisions that need to be taken.”

Is Bolsonaro constantly bluffing, threatening with power he doesn’t have? Is there a risk that former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, if the current inhabitants of the Planalto Palace win the election, will refuse to transfer power, repeating Donald Trump’s coup attempt in the United States on January 6, 2021?

For political scientist Joao Roberto Martins Filho, retired professor at the Federal University of San Carlos (Ufskar), the situation of uncertainty that such speeches instill in society is largely due to the silence of the military, who allegedly would be against these anti-democratic outbursts, but are silent. “People don’t know what’s going on. They are not calming the country and will not be calming in the near future,” he says. “Surprise is part of military strategy.”

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Read Mārtiņš Filju’s RBA interview:

Are threats to the elections coming from Bolsonaro or close allies and the military like Braga Netto bravado or is there a real coup risk?

From the lips of the general who occupied the Ministry of Defense, seriously. The problem is that we don’t know what kind of support (coup attempt) the high command will have, especially in the army. Bolsonaro will appoint Braga Netto as his deputy with ulterior motives in order to have an army figure on the list. But among those soldiers who would not be as loyal to Bolsonaro as Braga Netto, someone who may have some doubts about the possibility of a coup, no one shows himself.

When it’s against the Federal Supreme Court, then they show up. Then the Minister of DefensePaulo Sergio Nogueira de Oliveira), the rest of the commanders – which is unusual – are signed together. When Siro Gomes said that the military was pandering to organized crime in the Amazon, three commanders joined him. Such statements (of the military) can be considered offensive to the armed forces, as they pose a threat to Brazilian democracy.

So, this game is a bit strange, but dangerous. It looks like they want to delay the country until the elections. Be the ones who are directly dedicated, (Augusto) Heleno, (Luis Eduardo) Ramos and Braga Netto, or the ones who occasionally send a few questionable messages.

Where are the soldiers of the Armed Forces who should be against Bolsonaro but never speak out in public?

According to sources, there were signals from the military zone that they were not going to interfere (in a coup d’etat), which is very dangerous for order, national security … But it was clear why they sent this message: because of this statement by Braga Netto, who is already trying to delegitimize the elections. But there is such a bad climate in which we do not know what is happening. And we have reason to believe that they can create problems because they turn on Bolsonaro.

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It occurred to me that they find Bolsonaro’s game very dangerous. But how do you know if this is true or a game of two tweezers, because. Piero Leirner says (“to act as a group sympathetic to a social movement, and then as a defender of the government” – according to Leirner). On the one hand, the threat of a threat, on the other, that “we will abide by the Constitution.”

If Lula wins the election, Bolsonaro will have two months to remain on the plateau and attempt a coup d’état similar to that of Donald Trump in the United States. How do you see this range?

And the role that the Army plays here has nothing to do with the Army where it actually exists to wage war. But I think you are even optimistic when you think about the situation after Lula’s victory, between the victory and the inauguration. Until then, we have three very difficult months.

On the one hand, it may even be that if Bolsonaro starts to add fuel to the fire, as he did in Santa Catarina, the active duty military will stop Bolsonaro. How would they stop? Revealing some information they have on him, something straight forward. They have a lot of information. In this sense, they will drop the “bomb” in time to damage Bolsonaro’s candidacy. But this is a step before Election Day.

Then, with Lula’s victory, we still have the opportunity to take office. But then, with an elected president, with a large number of votes, with international support, it is more difficult to deal with him. Perhaps then Bolsonaro will try to do something crazy, like Trump.

But in the event that he blows everything up, the Armed Forces can respond to the request of the Supreme Court and bring troops to the streets to defend democracy. Further, it gets even worse: a situation has developed when Lula has not even taken office yet, but already owes something to the Armed Forces.

But wouldn’t this forecast be somewhat optimistic, since it represents an intervention to defend democracy?

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Is it in quotation marks? Because they created this situation. The situation is not good. There are no optimistic views on this from my side.

It remains to be seen whether the Armed Forces, as an organism, something more than a government, but as a state, will continue to collude with a government that has complaints every day. Ministry of Education, now Caixa Econômica…

Inside the house, the women should tell them, “How far will this go?” As you said at the beginning: they are not going to do anything? They won’t show up? Are you going to make a little statement about how this is too much? Not yet, because candidate Lula, who is their main enemy, is winning.

So let’s hope they are reasonable and Brazil is not a “banana republic”…

I totally agree. The problem is that we remain in this tension, and suspense is part of the military strategy. We don’t know what’s going on. They do not calm the country and will not calm in the near future. The other day, a supporter of Bolsonaro, commenting on the speech in Santa Catarina, said that Bolsonaro has the Armed Forces and “auxiliary forces.”

But he put in the “auxiliary forces” what – hunters, shooters and weapons collectors. Are these guys a support force? Auxiliary force – military police. These guys are not part of the state. Look at the danger we’re approaching.

In short, he armed people and no one knows what might happen.

What can happen, and I hope it doesn’t happen, like you, is that people will die until the situation is resolved. Look what happened in the USA.

People even died there, but the institutions here in Brazil are not as strong as they are there. We don’t know how long they will last…

I agree. So much so that we are dependent on the Armed Forces. Complete nonsense.


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