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Bolsonaro and Tsentrau use a “corrupt presidential presidential approach,” the political scientist says.



Havan sees its IPO cut in half due to political and corporate risks.

RIO – Political scientist Christian Lynchof the Institute for Social and Political Research at the State University of Rio de Janeiro (IESP-UERJ), estimates that House President Arthur Lear (Progressistas-AL) will try to replace the secret budget paralyzed by the Federal Supreme Court (STF).) The secret disclosure of the budget amendments is part of a pact between President Jair Bolsonaro and Centrão, he said. This agreement, he analyzes, ensures the continuity of Lyra’s reign in the House and Center of Congress and the Executive Branch for the next several years. It also guarantees a “less disadvantageous” electoral status for Bolsonaro next year.

“He (Lyre) I will keep trying. He won’t give up, ”Lynch said via email shortly before the Federal Supreme Court (STF) formed a majority to uphold the injunction by Minister Rosa Weber, which paralyzed the publication of the amendments without identification – the merits will still be assessed.

Has the secret budget become the main weapon of the executive branch for obtaining a majority in the House?

In an ideal world, the government has an ideologically homogeneous party or majority coalition, which reduces the cost of governance to the minimum necessary. In Brazil, the prevailing situation is partisan division, which is designed for associations and politicians who enlist the support of any government in exchange for benefits that contribute to their re-election or personal enrichment. The coalitional presidential approach that has served as the basis for New Republic governments since the FHC collapsed due to the post-2013 political representation crisis, which legitimized claims of custody of the judiciary in subsequent years. The 2018 elections, with their conservative growth, resulted in a huge desire of the legislative and executive branches to regain their lost independence. This desire has often manifested itself in the desire to replace the rule of the judiciary with the executive power. Fortunately, Bolsonaro and his team are not only amateurs, but also authoritarian supporters. After consistently leasing the administration to the Olavists and the military, tricking a coup so as not to fall, Bolsonaro finally embraced his old comrades from the Centrão, a group of conservative, pragmatic and patrimonialist parties. They were the ones who proposed to Bolsonar a model of governance based on the old coalition presidential system of government, even more corrupt than the one that was recognized as valid under the PT governments. It is about re-editing the monthly manual, which they knew very well, with the difference that it was budget money. It was the buoy that saved the Bolsonaro government from the cliff following the September 7th atrocities.

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Why does public opinion feel that the executive branch has no other way to strengthen its base in Congress than by allocating funds?

The presidential coalition is working on incentives created by the government to persuade more pragmatic congressmen to join its parliamentary base to vote on the most important drafts of its agenda. The more homogeneous the coalition, party discipline and fewer parties, the more natural and less costly the coalition can be. Well, Bolsonaro doesn’t even have a party and was elected against the political party system. Apart from his favorite radicals, there is no one “natural” in his base. Thus, the cost of “persuading” the majority is colossal, since each appropriate vote requires a lot of government money. By the way, Bolsonaro’s “normalization” after September 7 is explained precisely by the need to bring his conservatism closer to the average Centrão level, which is not radical, and to slightly reduce the costs of Congressmen to support his government in Congress. … In this strategic structure, the PEC Calote is fundamental because by making assistance to Brazil possible without sacrificing the budget quotas of the congressmen themselves, it will create the conditions for reducing former President Lula’s huge electoral advantage over the poorest electorate, especially in the Northeast. Without him, northeastern politicians such as Ciro Nogueira and Arthur Lira, associated with Bolsonaro, will be at a huge disadvantage in the elections in their states. The cost of confronting Lula is becoming prohibitive. That’s why they need Brazil’s help too. It is a matter of life and death.

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What role does House President Arthur Lear play in this process?

Lyra is a conservative and authoritarian politician, but competent, he makes possible the work of government in the House. There, he is the real leader of a government that is trying to make possible a dramatic resurgence of presidential corruption, which is a pillar of the pact between Centeru and Bolsonaro. A pact that sets the stage for Lyra’s dominance in the House and Center in Congress – and therefore in the Executive Branch – to survive the next few years. And it also provides a less dangerous electoral environment for Bolsonaro, who will be at a less disadvantageous position with him in the 2022 election.

If the secret budget does fall, what could happen specifically to the Precatorio PEC? And with other interesting projects for the performer?

The secret budget is the fuel that provides the government with a qualified majority when voting at PEC Kalote. The prospect of running out of fuel has deterred many MPs from following the government again. It is for this reason that, while denigrating the alleged “activity” of the Supreme Court, Lyra is already hinting at the possibility of creating equivalent mechanisms for her clients. He will keep trying. Do not give up.

What will be the consequences of re-election of Jair Bolsonaro’s candidacy for re-election of the secret budget and rejection or inability to create PEC dos Precatório?

Such assistance will be provided in any case, even if in fits and starts, with the extension of the state of distress or in any other way. It got to the point that the decree on its creation has already been issued. Although the result is meager, the important thing is the story that something has been done. The impossibility of creating a parliamentary co-optation mechanism will call into question the agreement between Centeru and Bolsonaro. This will lead to the fact that half of the centroniks will join Lula, and the president will resume his anti-systemic pantomime of a coup. However, Lira is more likely to find functional equivalents to shadow budgeting. And it will count on wear and tear, which STF will invalidate again.

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Again, will the STF play a political role and hold back the actions of the Bolsonaro government and its allies? Or is acting purely technical?

Here it is necessary to distinguish between party politics. The exercise of constitutional jurisdiction is always political in the noble sense of the word, because it often involves political issues. Preventing the executive and the legislature from going beyond their constitutional boundaries is a political activity. The court also makes political decisions in the sense that it evaluates the impact of its decision on the political system and administration. This is the so-called “consequentialism”. It so happens that sometimes ministers can go beyond their limits, as was often the case during the “judicial revolution” between 2013 and 2017. It is not surprising that the 2018 elections led to the fact that the executive and legislative branches were poisoned by anti-judicial regime, i.e. mistrust and dissatisfaction with the judiciary. Bolsonaro even unearthed an anti-judicial doctrine according to which the armed forces under the command of the president would be the so-called “deterrent force.” In this context, Hashem must act prudently so as not to exaggerate what he has done in the past. But this is not why he should allow himself to be emasculated. I believe the Supreme Court has played this cautious but firm role well from 2019 onwards, protecting the primacy of the Constitution from conservative and authoritarian enthusiasm from other authorities. Democracy could only count on him. The court seems to have realized that its role is not only in promoting good, but also in avoiding evil.

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Carlos posted a photo of Bolsonaro’s legs with a mug



Carlos posted a photo of Bolsonaro's legs with a mug

alderman Carlos Bolsonaro (Republicanos-RJ) posted today (4) on her Telegram channel a photo of the president’s leg Jair Bolsonaro (PL) com erysipelas, skin infection🇧🇷 According to the president’s son, the picture was taken “a few days ago.”

“My father developed an erysipelas on his leg. The photo was taken a few days ago. I was informed that at this stage he is already in the process of recovery and everything is going very well, ”the president’s son wrote. The publication did not allow user comments.

erysipelas is infection considered more common in people with circulatory problems or diabetes🇧🇷 The infection settles in the deepest part of the skin and is characterized by red and painful plaques. The condition mostly manifests itself in the legs – as in the case of Bolsonaro, according to his son.

The wanted adviser to the Palais Planalto did not comment on the publication of the president’s son. The federal government has not officially commented on the matter. The NGO Transparência Eleitoral Brasil even demanded greater clarity in the disclosure of Bolsonaro’s health..

December 4, 2022 – Message released by Councilor Carlos Bolsonaro on the condition of President Jair Bolsonaro’s leg, which has erysipelas.

Image: Reproduction / Telegram

After the elections, Bolsonaro remained silent and did not interfere in public affairs. Initially, the president’s associates claimed that this was due to erysipelas, but, as the observer notes UOL boy Alves, friends of the president are concerned about Bolsonaro’s behavior.

“He believed that there would be some change in the political scenario, in connection with demonstrations at the barracks and on the highways, but I think he realized that this was not possible,” expressed the opinion of a friend of the president who was with him last weekendat the graduation of cadets in Amana (Military Academy Agulhas Negras) in Rio, and who maintains frequent telephone contacts.

During the meeting, Vice President and Senator-elect Hamilton Murao urged Bolsonaro talk to your people, but the President left without speaking to supporters. According to the report, the closeness of Lula’s (PT) diplomacy as president-elect worsened Bolsonaro’s condition. UOL.

According to people close to him, the anticipation of Lula’s diplomacy, scheduled for December 12, made Bolsonaro feel even more depressed. “As the change of government approaches, he notes that the situation is irreversible,” said the politician, who was recently with the president.

The president’s isolation is also reflected in the virtual environment. As the WOL showsin November, Bolsonaro posted three times on Instagram and four times on Twitter and Facebook, in addition to abandoning the traditional Thursday life.

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The Venezuelan opposition demands from Maduro the date for the resumption of political dialogue – 04.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021

CARACAS (Reuters) – The Venezuelan opposition has asked President Nicolás Maduro’s government to set a date for the resumption of political talks in Mexico that could ease the country’s long economic and political crisis.

Delegates from the government and the opposition met in Mexico City on November 26 after more than a year’s break and signed a “social agreement” but did not announce a date when they would meet again. The opposition said it would meet with the ruling party in December.

The government is “setting new conditions to move forward on the political issue,” the opposition said in a Twitter statement released Saturday afternoon, but did not provide details of the new official requirements.

The head of the opposition delegation, Gerardo Blyde, said this week that the talks will enter a difficult phase, including political and human rights issues.

The Venezuelan Communications Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

“We demand that Nicolás Maduro not delay the commitment made in Mexico and proceed immediately to set a date, during December, to continue negotiations on a political and free agenda, as agreed,” the opposition said.

(Reporting by Vivian Secker)

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Video: Gabriela Prioli talks about her new political book Ideologies



Gabriela Prioli

In Brazilian public debate, the terms are used inconsistently (not to mention that they are misleading). Some of them are sometimes criminalized. For example: “Ideology” has become synonymous with something bad. But what underlies this? To challenge this issue, a lawyer, professor and communicator Gabriela Prioli launches the book “Ideologies”, dedicated to the three most famous macro-currents of thought: liberalism, conservatism and socialism.

Throughout the book, published by Companhia das Letras, Gabriela Prioli uses her experience as a communicator to make the debate on this topic accessible, which, like other complex topics, is divided into several options.

“Part of my job is to present complex topics in a simple way, but without simplifying, without losing the essential, keeping the main thing,” Prioly explains the purpose of the work. “Ideologies” is the author’s second book about politics – in 2021 she released the book “Politics for All”.

The book revisits the main political theories of the aforementioned ideologies. Prioli defines himself as a “facilitator” to bring the public into contact with the ideas and thoughts presented for the first time. “This is an invitation, a challenge, it is important that people look for the source, create their own criticism of this thought,” he reflects.

Gabriela Prioli releases book “Ideologies”

Gabriela Prioli. Ed. Company of letters. 242 pages. Price: 59.90 reais.

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