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Treasury direct bonds fell 9.5% in August due to political and fiscal risks | Straight treasure

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Treasury direct bonds fell 9.5% in August due to political and fiscal risks |  Straight treasure

month Augustlike what happened in July, it was another loss period for most Treasury Direct bondsthat follow the same problems. Investor perception of the country more serious financial problems and inflationary pressures acquires more and more clear contours and even received extra caution associated with political uproar.

Luis Cesta, Analytical Officer at Fintech Monett, explains that the beginning of the month was negatively impacted by global problems with economic consequences delta variant of the novel coronaviruswhich is easier to convey, but the cloudy situation on the domestic market soon caught the attention of investors and further reduced the yield on these bonds in August.

“Concerns about COVID-19 persist, but during August the problem was predominantly internal, with political, economic and financial issues,” he says. The shopping cart emphasizes that any indications of “a certain lack of discretion and financial responsibility are severely hampering the market“.

Installment payment discussions preliminary, increase in value Auxílio Brasil (new name of the Bolsa Família program) this is new gas stations, which includes the forgiveness of up to 90% of corporate debts, influenced the investor’s mood… Added to this ideological clashes between President Jair Bolsonaro and STF (Supreme Court), who called investors’ warnings about possible institutional crisis

In this scenario of fears and uncertainties, bond prices tend to be lower, while the rate offered in exchange for investment is higher. In practice, investors trade more because of the price of the paper and demand a higher interest rate in exchange for the risk associated with government bonds.

Among the securities available for investment to small investors, only securities related to Selic ended the month positively with gains of 0.47% and 0.20% on maturities in 2024 and 2027., in that order. But only the 2024 Selic Treasury performed above 0.24% of the savings return in August.

Check out the performance of this month’s games

* Securities that do not have accumulated returns for a year or 12 months are available for a shorter time and therefore there is no yield calculation.

A brand to market can bring great volatility to investments in Tesouro Direto, increasing their potential profitability or even making up for losses, as happened in August with inflation-linked bonds with fixed interest rates

But it’s worth remembering that this fluctuation only affects investors who buy back their investments before the expiration date “agreed” with the government.… If you bring the bond to maturity, a “government-agreed” yield is guaranteed at the time of purchase.

READ ALSO: Growing interest: is it better to invest alone in fixed income or in funds?

What to expect in September?

the same fears which followed the financial market and damaged the market value of government bonds starting fromremains in the spotlight of investors in September… “The meeting of political and economic news should continue. bringing volatility, especially from fixed rates– says Basket.

Also yesterday, the government sent a budget proposal for 2022 to Congress, along with Brazilian Auxilio. However, the amount of resources allocated for the social program is the same as in 2021 and amounts to 34.7 billion reais. Bolsonaro intends to increase the grant, but the adjustment still requires congressional approval.

Political uproar and clashes between powers will take on a new chapter on September 7 when demonstrations in support of Bolsonaro are scheduled. Yesterday, in another call to action, Bolsonaro said that “he will change the fate of Brazil within the four lines of the Constitution, he will not raise his sword and utter a few words.”

In response to the specter of inflation, the Ministry of Mines and Energy and Aneel (National Electricity Agency) announced the creation of a new tariff flag called “Water scarcity” at R $ 14.20 for every 100 kWh consumed. The additional amount will be charged from September 1 to April 30, 2022. The fee represents an increase of 50% over the R $ 9.49 set for the second level of the red flag. And this is the second adjustment since June, when the most expensive banner was reconfigured by 52%.

“With each passing week, Focus Bulletin shows a deterioration in the scenario expected by the market,” Cesta emphasizes. The latest survey of market institutions by the Central Bank shows that the expectation of official inflation in Brazil, as measured by the IPCA, rose from 7.11% to 7.27% this year, the 21st consecutive high. For 2022, the forecast has been increased from 3.93% to 3.95% in the sixth upward revision in a row.

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With the new “Water shortage” banner, these more negative forecasts should increase significantly… Second André Braz, Price Index Coordinator, Brazilian Institute of Economics, Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV Ibre)The new surcharge means that the electricity bill will, on average, be 7.35% more expensive. Thereby, IPCA should close the year at 8.2%

Due to the fact that the turmoil has not escaped the market for interest rates and government bonds, Basket prefers inflation-linked bonds with a shorter maturity… O Tesouro HICP + the term available to small investors today, expiration date 2026… It could be purchased yesterday for a minimum amount of BRL 58.50, with IPCA return for the period plus a flat rate of 4.41%.

“One thing is for sure: since you are a Brazilian investor, remember that In Brazil, inflation always surprises itself from time to time, and so it is ideal to always have a portion of the portfolio protected from this impact.“, write down XP Investimentos Fixed Income Analysts Camilla Dolle, Francisco Lobo and Rodrigo Sgavioli, in the report.

According to them,to protect your investment from inflation, bonds linked to IPCA + are generally more recommended than, for example, post-fixed rates, which pay a percentage of the CDI), or fixed rates.

“The reason is that, despite the forecasts of economists, there is no absolute certainty about what the base interest rate (Selic) or IPCA will be in the future, since the scenario can always change over time,” they say.

Given the uncertain economic scenario and all financial problems, interest paid on IPCA + bonds increased “accordingly compared to the beginning of the year, which is an opportunity”, according to XP analysts.

Treasury Direct fell 9.5% in August due to political and fiscal risks – Photo: Getty Images

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Is the device being revived?

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Is the device being revived?

The absolute majority dreamed of by António Costa and (I suspect) Marcelo Rebelo de Souza sold as an achievable dream does not exist and never has. The contraption, as a formula of power, has never ceased to be the most viable solution for António Costa. Well, the country could wake up next week with the feeling that nothing has changed, even if the winner of the election changes. The political crisis resulting from the collapse of the budget, the fate of which can be traced from the moment when the President of the Republic decided that it is necessary to “reset” political chess, will not add stability to the Parliament. Judging by all the polls, in none of the possible scenarios will the situation be better than it was, and this is only the first of Marcelo’s problems.

With the majority remaining on the left and António Costa’s demonization of the PSD, in an attempt to win the center and a useful vote from the left, the PS abandoned the demand for an absolute majority and fierce criticism. PKP and Blok. Katarina Martins has already begun drawing red lines for future revisions of the budget and government program. PCP is still wasting a few bullets to cancel a useful vote, but she will eventually choose rapprochement. With the victory of the socialists, Costa already realized that there was no other way. The eco-geingonça, a kind of reworked dream, for the majority, formed with PAN and Livre, also seems more impossible, and a reign like Guterres lasts a year.

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If the victory eventually goes to the side of the SDP, but the majority remains on the side of the left, this will mean a departure from António Costa and a more than predictable internal victory for Pedro Nuno Santos, the only socialist able to use the potential of the left parliamentary majority. He will have to make the SDP government viable, approve the budgets for 2022 and 2023, and demand new elections next year. It makes sense that in a scenario that repeats 2015, the socialists with new leadership and the majority left want to govern, but it would be political suicide if the new leader did not submit to the vote of the Portuguese. Pedro Nuno Santos has already made it clear that this is exactly what he will do.

This is also a bad scenario for the President of the Republic, even though the SDP’s victory is held hostage by the right-wing majority and Ventura’s party acts as a third force. If Chega is the main party, the instability will be even greater, Rio cannot agree and is forced to wait for the moment when the president can call elections again. That is why it is important that Rui Rio make it clear without hesitation that he will not accept conversations with Chega, only in this way will it be possible to win a victory that can grow in the next elections.

A useful vote is not just played out left and right, the political field of each of the parties capable of leading a government project is growing towards the center in order to prevent the radicalization of the alternative. The only thing that seems to have killed this campaign is the Central Bloc, stability must be achieved with PS rule on the left or PSD rule on the right.

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Even betting on Pivetta’s return to the political scene, Geller says he doesn’t discuss future opponents.

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Even betting on Pivetta's return to the political scene, Geller says he doesn't discuss future opponents.

(Photo: Playback/Internet)

Although Deputy Governor Otaviano Pivetta (no party) has repeatedly stated that he will not run in this year’s elections and under any electoral scenarios, as he returned to do double duty with Governor Mauro Mendez (DEM) as his deputy or even in speculation about a possible dispute for the Senate of the Republic, some preliminary candidates still include him in this political environment.

As did federal deputy Neri Geller (PP), who commented last Wednesday (19) in an interview with Rádio CBN Cuiabá about this possibility, perhaps pointing to a political turn or, who knows, to a personal request from the governor, Pivetta’s longtime friend. Thus, placing him as a possible opponent in a dispute in the Senate. Theoretically, this could create an “obstacle” to his provisional candidacy as Geller seeks a seat in the upper house of Congress.

Neri, who has already secured MDB’s support in the Senate race, is now looking to merge his name with the Mendez group. According to the progressive federal deputy, opponents or future compositions are not chosen in pre-election disputes, but work is only on fixing the name itself.

“I don’t discuss the possibility of opponents or squad. Today I have good relations with three parties: mine, the PP, as well as the SDP and the MBR. It is clear that Pivetta can reverse his decision not to participate in the elections and run for office in advance. But this does not affect how I act, work – respectfully, even with my opponents. However, it won’t affect me in any way. I am calm and very well positioned from an electoral point of view and, mainly, from the point of view of the support base that I am creating,” the deputy said.

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Neri also claimed that his candidacy was launched in an arc of alliances supported by former governor and former agriculture minister Blairo Maggi (PP), federal deputy Carlos Bezerra (MDB) and senator Carlos Favaro (PSD).

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LGBT phobia in politics may increase in 2022 – DW – 01/23/2022

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LGBT phobia in politics may increase in 2022 - DW - 01/23/2022

An atmosphere of hostility, attacks and threats against openly gay or LGBTQI+ politicians has been evident in several recent episodes within Brazilian political institutions, although for the average voter, a candidate’s sexual preference or gender identity has less and less influence on voting at the ballot box. – at least if we consider the major urban centers of the country.

LGBTQI+ politicians are preferred targets for the far right, and due to the polarized climate of this year’s Brazilian presidential election, many of them already fear that the agenda of customs and gender ideology will be a topic raised in the National Congress by allies of Jair Bolsonaro. , which would serve as a weapon against the centre-left and pollute the pre-election debate.

The biggest rejection of Bolsonaro, according to a Datafolha Institute survey last December, concerns homosexuals and bisexuals: 83% would not vote for the incumbent under any circumstances.

Due to the critical economic situation in the country, Bolsonaro has given way among low-income evangelical voters to former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and must use this conservative debate to try to contain them.

“Bolsonaro is trying to scare this evangelical public with strange things, like saying that “your child can become a woman at the age of 7.” Today there is much more respect for the LGBTQ cause among non-ideological evangelicals, but it is clear that they are resisting this topic,” explains Renato Dorgan, specialist in political-electoral marketing, qualitative and quantitative research and co-owner of the Instituto Travessia-Estratégia e Marketing.

Dorgan believes that homosexuality in politics has gradually ceased to be a big taboo, especially after 2015, 2016, which he observes in a qualitative study he conducts with Brazilian voters. According to recent polls, more than half of the population approves of same-sex unions.

“So much so that now Eduardo Leite (governor of Rio Grande do Sul) has declared himself a homosexual, although he is a preliminary presidential candidate,” the specialist noted. Leyte lost the PSDB primary to Sao Paulo Gov. Joao Doria, but did not hesitate to use the sexual option in mid-2021 when he sought accreditation as a candidate for President of the Republic.

Shortly after the announcement of the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, a poll conducted by the Instituto Paraná Pesquisas in July 2021 showed that 75.9% of Brazilians would not change their vote if the presidential candidate was gay: 13.7% admitted, that willing to vote for a candidate decreases, while up to 5.8% increases. The survey was conducted in the municipalities of 27 subjects of the Federation with an error of 2 percentage points. The poll showed that the greatest resistance to a homosexual candidate comes from men over 60 living in the south of the country.

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Far-right uses homophobia as voting strategy, says Gene Willis

“The current government was elected because of homophobia,” former federal MP Jean Willis, who recently joined PT, told DW Brasil. Gay, Willis had direct clashes with Bolsonaro while both were MPs and came to spit in the face of the incumbent when he praised tormentor Brillante Ustra by voting to impeach Dilma Rousseff in 2016. The journalist and writer gave him a mandate for being subjected to death threats and numerous attacks. Willis advocates that “a section of the far right should use homophobia to advance elections,” a topic he has covered in recent books and articles.

He explains that he relinquished his mandate because he was and remains the target of death threats, including from members of his family, in addition to a “heavy and well-funded campaign of slander and assassination” of his reputation through “dirty lies”.

“It was obvious to me that after the cowardly and cruel murder of Mariel Franco, the threats would not be limited to threats. It was just as clear to me – but not to the left in general, and even more so to my old party, unfortunately, despite the consistent denunciations that I made, that this attack was not only on the person or on the person of Jean Willis. It was a brutal attack on everything I represented and represent,” he says.

The fact that he is an openly gay politician and activist, Willis adds, has made him “an easy catalyst for hatred and resentment in a historically homophobic and racist society” along the same lines as trying to destroy Lula’s image.

“Homophobic hostility was more pronounced on the part of heterosexual parliamentarians, especially neo-Pentecostal evangelicals and/or those associated with the security forces. This does not mean that there were no homophobic sentiments on the part of some left-wing parliamentarians and on the part of women on the right,” he said.

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Despite pre-election marketing polls, Willis insists that Brazilians will not elect a gay president today and that those in power now want to prevent this from happening in the future.

“The current government was elected because of homophobia,” says former federal MP Gene Willis.Photo: DW/C. Neher

For a gay senator, “this confrontation takes guts.”

Some scenes were notable: in the Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry into the Pandemic (CPI da Covid), in the Senate, in which capixaba senator Fabiano Contarato, at the time associated with the Network, spoke about his sexual choices and his family. Married, he and his partner have adopted two children.

“Brazil must begin to reverse centuries of structural politics based on sexism, racism and LGBT phobia. I came into politics believing that it takes courage to stand up to this.”

Contarato, now associated with PT and a possible candidate for the Espirito Santo government acronym, emphasizes that all of the country’s recent gains by the LGBTQIA+ community have been the result of judicial decisions, not political ones.

“The right to adopt is without a doubt one of the most important. It guarantees the basic right of homoaffective families and allows them to form on an equal footing with others. However, the fact that this is not yet a registered right in Brazilian law creates uncertainty about a possible annulment.”

Congress, according to the senator, ignores the debate about the protection and rights of LGBTQI +. “I am the first openly gay senator and I hope to have opened the doors to others in the near future. I humbly hope that our mandate will serve as an inspiration to other gays, lesbians, transgenders and transvestites. …everyone, even if we have to fight a lot harder to get there.”

He cites the adoption of stiffer sentences for those who commit crimes motivated by discrimination or prejudice based on race, color, ethnicity, religion, national origin or sexual orientation as successful benchmarks. “The House also passed Bill 2353/2021 of my own authorship, which prohibits discrimination against blood donors based on sexual orientation.”

Brazil |  Senate investigation into the pandemic
“I am the first openly gay senator and I hope to open the doors to others in the near future,” Contarato says.Photo: Leopoldo Silva/Agência Senado

The resistance is higher in the chamber

Already in the House, says Federal MP David Miranda (Psol-RJ), the deputy who accepted the mandate for Wyllys’ vacancy, LGBTQI+ programs are making little headway, especially due to resistance from the evangelical, armed and conservative wing of agribusiness. . According to him, there are about 40 projects in the Chamber that are of interest to this population, 50% with a more progressive approach and 50% with a biased and derogatory look.

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“This agenda is not moving, and if it is brought to plenary session, it will paralyze Congress. Both progressive and conservative MPs are trying to use these agendas to advance themselves. It will definitely happen this year.” Miranda predicts there will be a big debate around a project defining that public toilets are for men and women, thus avoiding embarrassment for Miranda’s transgender people.

The MP is married to journalist Glenn Greenwald, who posted on The Intercept Brasil website messages from former judge Sergio Moro with prosecutors involved in Operation Lava-Jato. The Jato Vase, as the case became known in Brazil, led to the demoralization of Lava-Jato and culminated in the decision of the Federal Supreme Court on Moro’s suspicion of trying Lulu.

Vase Jato, according to the deputy, has made him a specific target for the extreme right. “We received death threats, me, my husband, my children, my mother. We were attacked at all levels. They made fake news with our names, our lives. a welcoming field with great support,” he said.

David Miranda walks daily accompanied by bodyguards. He says he has not received permission from the President of the Chamber, commanded by Bolsonaro MP Artur Lira (PP-AL), to rely on the security of the Legislative Police. “The Chamber stopped giving me security, although I have a positive opinion from the parliamentary commission in Geneva. I pay with my money, I don’t complain. protection in the state of Rio.

DW Brasil asked the President of the Chamber for information on the number of parliamentarians under the protection of the Legislative Police, as they are threatened, and questioned the Miranda case. “For security reasons, information about the escort of parliamentarians is confidential,” the press service of the chamber said by e-mail.

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