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The political environment can impede recovery

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The political environment can impede recovery

The political environment in Brazil introduces uncertainty about the country’s economic improvement. The warning comes from economists who forecast modest gross domestic product (GDP) growth and somewhat controlled inflation, but with a high base interest rate for 2022.

DIÁRIO DO COMÉRCIO turned to economists to understand the situation of economic imbalance in the country. Currently, the cumulative inflation for 12 months is 8.99%. Since March, the figure, accumulated over 12 months, has surpassed the ceiling of the federal government’s inflation target of 5.25% this year. The Selic rate, according to the Central Bank, in August was raised for the fourth time to 5.25%.

Fundação Getúlio Vargas (FGV) economics professor Joelson Sampaio estimates that the second half has historically had good economic performance. “I believe that we will have an improvement in this economic recovery thanks to the progress of vaccinations and the increased flexibility of the population due to the reduction of social isolation,” he believes.

Although, FGV economist estimates inflation will be a major issue later this year, closing at around 7.6% in 2021. From the point of view of economist Joelson Sampaio, 2022 will be a year of low GDP “around 1% and inflation at a lower level than this year,” he adds.

Economist Paulo Kasaka of Ibmec predicts that the year will end with a GDP of 5%. “This increase is not because there was growth in the country. This is a reflection of the impact we experienced last year and the actions of this year, ”he explains.

On inflation, the Ibmec economist explains that behavior depends on a number of factors. “Political upheavals, devaluation of the real against the dollar, large investments leaving the country, water crisis, growing fuel supplies, a pandemic and the lack of structuring of a social program that actually helps more needy populations are affecting inflation in the country, which is expected to continue The outlook is that inflation will rise to double digits by the end of the year, ”says Kasaka.

Expectations for 2022 remain uncertain due to the political scenario. “We still don’t know what will happen next year. It is assumed that at the beginning of the year, GDP will grow by 1%, while inflation will average 3%. The central bank will have to raise the interest rate, mainly to contain the devaluation of the exchange rate, ”he said.

Paulo Casaca adds that until the political situation in the country is resolved, the economy will not return to the “rails”. “There are more important issues to be discussed in the government, such as the PEC dos Precatórios, where the financial resources will come from for the new Bolsa Família, a privatization that does not currently solve the country’s economic problems. the president of Brazil, ”he specifies.

institutional crisis

Mauro Sayar, professor of economics at the Faculty of Economics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), notes that the indicators are declining and show that with the “tone increase” of some authorities in the republic, the impact on the economy is inevitable. “We had a good prospect for closing GDP, but with a change in the political scenario, it is estimated that it will close at 5%.”

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Sayar estimates that there is currently no way to reverse inflation in the short term and that there is an upward trend. Price escalation, exchange rate devaluation and political uncertainty scenarios are actions that the federal government could have avoided or bypassed within a year. “These actions were provoked by the authorities and could be canceled. Now pandemics, water crises, high fuel prices are actions that do not depend only or only on the government, they go further. These factors have also jeopardized the country’s economy. In addition, we still have the risk of Brazil, the ceiling of government spending, the dollar and the price of the increase in quotes and devaluation of our currency, ”he notes.

Economist Mauro Sayar believes that GDP for 2022 is still in a “foggy” scenario with a low growth estimate of 2.5% due to the political situation and mainly due to the water crisis in the country.with. “The central bank will have to act with interest to contain inflation. We will continue to depend on the political situation regarding the return on foreign investment, ”he explains.

Pochmann criticizes the lack of strategic projects

Brasilia “ Brazil needs to determine the foundations on which it wants to grow, and take into account the rise of Asia and especially China on the world stage, ” said Lula Institute President Marcio Pochmann, criticizing the lack of strategic projects for the country and a tax debate that ignores the transformation of the digital economy.

In an interview with Reuters, Pochmann defended the taxation of financial flows and criticized the concentration of economic debate on issues such as maintaining or not meeting spending ceilings. With regard to high inflation, the economist points out that the problem hides erroneous options for overly liberalizing economic policies.

A PhD in economics from the University of Campinas and one of the coordinators of the economic plan for PT’s candidacy for president in 2018, Pochmann said the current managerial and economic debate is focused on current issues, but avoids defining the north around. from which Brazil’s growth will be built.

“I don’t want to play down the problem of inflation, especially in a country like ours, but let’s stabilize inflation, so what? What’s going to happen now? Will the investment be spontaneous? Where? Which sectors? “, – he said.

Former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva has publicly stated that he has not yet decided whether he will run in the 2022 elections, but his name has featured in the leaders of recent opinion polls.

Pohmann considered it important to define a country in which Brazil can be in the conditions of a shift of the dynamic center of the economy to the East, with a sharp jump in the relative importance of Asia and, in particular, China.

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“The Brazilian economy seems to be in a coma and only responds to a prick. Release PIS / PASEP, there will now be Emergency Assistance, there will now be a preliminary version that augments the Bolsa Família. But this does not force the economy to turn around, it is a punctual recovery, and it returns to normal, that is, to a state of stagnation, ”he said.

According to Pochmann, Brazil is not producing what it needs and is increasingly dependent on the outside world, subject to exchange rate fluctuations, which ultimately affect prices in the economy. He advocated rebuilding the production system outside of primary agricultural production and building “grand projects” that would attract private sector investment.

The idea, he continued, is to take advantage of liquidity, which is now abundant, but mostly directed towards government bonds.

Asked how to contribute to this change in an environment where long bond rewards are more attractive amid doubts about the country’s real commitment to financial soundness – a situation that tends to worsen as elections approach – he pointed out that this could be resolved by political agreement …

“This is a political agreement that some will accept, others will not, but reality will force the country to unite around this point of view,” he said, without going into details.

“We’re talking about a hybrid economy here. I do not believe in a strong state and a weak private sector and vice versa. It is convergence, and, in essence, it presupposes a horizon in which politics must be resolved in the face of an existing impasse. We are at a dramatic impasse, since 2014 there has been no growth in per capita income in Brazil, this has never happened in the history of the country, ”he added.

Inflation – Regarding the accelerated growth of prices in the economy, the economist noted that the country is experiencing cost inflation, caused, in his opinion, by economic policy options.

Echoing a recent speech by Lula, who attributed the rise in inflation to Petrobras’ policy of selling gasoline at dollar prices, Pochmann said the central bank is acting “like a fireman of sorts, as the government itself caused the increase. Macro prices are obviously a matter of fuel and, at the same time, electricity. “

“On the other hand, food prices reflect the abandonment of any supply policy, food security and a growing dependence on world prices. And, obviously, the manufacturer wants to earn more, so if he has an alternative in the foreign market, why is he going to leave it in the domestic market? “Pochmann said.

According to the economist, the country should have regulatory reserves as part of agricultural policy that will finance producers.

“This is state policy, this is the state. But no, the state is in the way, it is corrupt. So don’t. But if this does not happen, we will return to the starting point, ”he said.

“The state is part of the problem, but the state is also part of the solution. This does not mean that the state should be the way it was before, it is a digital state, and not an industrial state of the past, ”he added. (Reuters)

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Digitization can be an ally in taxation

Brasilia – Lula Institute president Marcio Pochmann has defended that with the digitalization of the economy, even the accelerated Covid-19 pandemic, the country should tax financial flows that are easy to track.

“The situation of companies can be monitored, for example, only through financial flows. Obviously, taxation can be done in this way, and not in the way we do today, in an archaic system that emerged with the arrival of the Portuguese invoicing, it is not in dialogue with the fact that we live in a digital economy. In this decade, the currency as we know it may disappear, ”he said.

It has been asked whether this idea would be similar to that of the former Minister of Revenue, Marcos Sintra, who tried in the government of Jair Bolsonaro with the support of Minister Paulo Guedes to introduce a single tax on payments that would be levied on all economic transactions, in return.With regard to declarative taxes, Pochman stated that both of them are “on the same level”, but he does not give up the tax difference.

“Perhaps my difference from him (Cintra) is that he worked with only one tax. I work with the vision that there is such inequality in the country, such different sectors, families, that it justifies the diversity of taxation, ”he said.

The form of levying ICMS, IPI and even income tax today depends on declarations that can be canceled, the economist said.

Pochmann also said that Brazil should focus on creating wealth in areas that it pays little or no attention to, starting with space exploration, in a reality in which the largest global companies are now working with data.

“There is no GPS in Brazil. How can we say that Brazil is an autonomous country when its entire information and communication system related to outer space, and therefore to the Internet, depends on non-Brazilian companies? “, – he said.

“Facebook even turned off the President of the United States, he can turn off the country. If we get into a conflict, I hope never, but whose adversary is the United States, they will simply cut us off from the satellite. Let’s imagine Brazil without internet. Hardly a single plane takes off. How is the hospital, university? This is a strategic issue, ”he added.

Brazil also needs to focus its strategic planning on exploration in deep waters, relying on Petrobras’ expertise, and on tackling climate change, given the reality of different biomes, Pochmann said.

“Amazon is practically Brazil’s gateway to the 21st century if we know how to take advantage of it,” he said. “It could be an excellent industrial laboratory for the production of technologies related to biome diversity.” (Reuters)

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PR Course in Selective Justice Encourages Equal Participation in Politics

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Curso da Justiça Eleitoral do PR estimula participação igualitária na política

The Women in Politics Commission and the Parana District Electoral Court Judicial School (TRE-PR) are promoting the online training course Women in Politics: Forming Candidates in 2022. From October 5 to October 28, classes will be offered to all comers with round-the-clock certification for those who gain at least 75% of the attendance. The limited course is free. Applications are accepted until September 30.

Make registration

Classes will be held on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 19:00 to 22:15 and 23.10 (Saturday) from 8:30 to 10:30, replacing 10.12 (Tuesday), the national holiday. The aim is to raise awareness of the importance of equal participation in politics by providing nominating tools that promote greater equality, fairness and democracy.

Diversity

Flavia da Costa Viana, Chief Justice and Executive Director of the TRE-PR School, said this edition of the course will reflect on the importance of diversity in political debate. “Attention will be paid not only to the need for greater participation of women in public life, but also to other minority groups.”

The judge emphasizes that it is never superfluous to recall the words of Minister Barroso in his inaugural speech to the High Electoral Court (TSE): “The involvement of idealistic and competent women in politics is an important requirement of the country. Women make up half of the population. And black, brown or indigenous people make up half of the women. We need to increase diversity in Brazilian public life. We are a multinational, multiracial, multicultural country. We must realize that this is an asset, a dignity, a privilege that history has given us. “

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According to Judge of the 174th Electoral Zone of Curitiba (PR) and President of the Women in Politics Commission, Adriana de Lourdes Simette, “The idea is to convey relevant information about the electoral and electoral process so that when elections approach, women and people involved in politics, regardless of party and ideological nuances, can be better prepared to participate in the next elections. “

The following topics are discussed during the course: legal aspects of women’s participation; political parties; budget and campaign funding; accountability; Communication; ballot box security and verification of electronic voting; registration of the application; democracy; diversity; social networks and civil language.

This is the second edition of a series of lectures that first took place in October 2019. The initiative is part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda of the United Nations (UN) Global Compact. In particular, it responds to the goals set in Goal 5, which aims to achieve gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls. It is also in line with Objective 9 of the judiciary, which encourages action to prevent or reverse litigation related to the 2030 Agenda SDGs.

Schedule

Politics and Women’s Participation: Legal Aspects and the Opinion of Those Who Judge
Ina Barbosa Honda and Sousa – chapter 50 of the electoral zone of Araucaria
Date: 05.10, from 19:00 to 21:00

Political parties
Jaime Barreiros Neto – server of the Bahia Electoral Court
Dates: October 5 from 21:15 to 22:15 and October 7 from 19:00 to 20:00.

Campaign budgeting and funding
Denise Schlickmann – Secretary for Internal Control and Audit of Electoral Justice Santa Catarina
Date: 07.10, from 20:15 to 21:30

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Political communication on social networks: has everything migrated to the Internet?
Rubian Kreutz – Public Relations Coordinator of the Electoral Court of the State of Parana
Date: 07.10, from 21:30 to 22:15

Accountability
Paulo Sergio Estevez – Coordinator of Electoral and Party Accounts of the Electoral Court of Paraná
Date: 14.10, from 19:00 to 20:00

Ballot box security and e-voting verification
Roni Cesar de Oliveira – Head of the Ballot Box Administration Section of the Electoral Court of the State of Parana
Dates: 14.10 from 20:15 to 21:30 and 28.10 from 20:45 to 22:15

Civil language: how to communicate in a simple and inclusive way
Melissa Diniz Medroni – Head of Journalism Production at the Electoral Court of the State of Parana
Date: 14.10, from 21:30 to 22:15

Elections, advertising and social media
Ana Carolina de Camargo Cleves – Professor of Constitutional and Electoral Law at the Center for the Autonomous University of Brazil (UniBrasil) and President of the Paraná Institute for Suffrage (IPRADE)
Dates: 19.10 from 19:00 to 20:30 and 26 October from 19:00 to 20:30.

Public Speaking and Campaign Assertiveness
Sirley Masil – Professor of Public Speaking and President of the Institute for Learning, Research and Creature Development (INTREPEDS)
Dates: 19.10 from 20:45 to 22:15 and 26.10 from 20:45 to 22:15

Political communication and women’s campaigns
Luciana Pahnke – Researcher and Professor at the Department of Communication at the Federal University of Parana (UFPR)
Date: 21.10, from 19:00 to 20:30 and from 20:45 to 22:15

Registration of candidacy
Daniel Morgado Maemura – Judicial Secretary of the Electoral Court of Parana
Date: 23.10, from 8:30 to 10:30

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diversity in politics
Polianne Santos – Advisor to the Vice President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) and founder of the Feminine Visibility project
Date: 23.10, from 10:45 to 12:15

Political reform, women’s participation and democracy
Ana Claudia Santano – Research Professor of the Higher Education Program in Law of the Autonomous University Center of Brazil (Unibrasil)
Date: 28.10, from 19:00 to 20:30

Service

Course “Women in Politics: Forming Candidates 2022”
When: from 5 to 28 October
Enrollment: from 20 to 30 September
Transmission: via the Zoom platform. An access link will be sent to registered people by email.

A source: TRE-PR

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The political scientist believes that the highlight of the electoral reform is the veto of the coalitions

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The political scientist believes that the highlight of the electoral reform is the veto of the coalitions

Political scientist Rafael Cortez believes that the main highlight of the electoral reform is the veto of party coalitions in the elections of deputies and councilors.

“The main reason for the noticeable influence of this veto is that proportional coalitions fictitiously used voter representation, since the number of electoral coalitions was not maintained throughout the entire legislative process, but varied only to count votes and increase the number of seats of a particular party,” Cortez explained. CNN

The political scientist argues that voters had no control over where their vote went. “In the end I voted for candidate A and helped choose the name of party B, which clearly contradicted the will of the voter.”

The Senate approved this Wednesday (22) in two rounds a Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) electoral reform and canceled the return of coalitions. The proposal gives more weight to votes for women and blacks while dividing party resources.

Since the Senate suppressed only those parts that did not reach consensus, such as the return of party unions, there is no need for PECs to return to the Chamber of Deputies. The text is now due to be made public by the President of Congress, Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG), by October 2. If this does not happen by that date, the rules will not apply to next year’s elections.

According to Cortez, the political system in Brazil is very complex from the point of view of the electorate. “It is very difficult to trace where this vote is going, because, in fact, as soon as we vote for a candidate, we vote for a party without knowing it. For example, it is unlikely that a deputy is elected only by the personal votes that he receives. The vote of the elected deputy is the sum of the individual votes with the votes cast by the people in the party legend. “

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Election Court Cancels Mandates of Mayor and Deputy Campo Magro for Abuse of Political and Economic Power | Parana

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Election Court Cancels Mandates of Mayor and Deputy Campo Magro for Abuse of Political and Economic Power |  Parana

The electoral court has revoked the mandates of the mayor of Campo Magro in the Curitiba metropolitan area, Claudio Cesar Casagrande (PSD) and Deputy Mayor Osmar Leonardi (PSC) for abuse of political and economic power.

The decision from Monday (20) said the city increased its municipal administration’s advertising spending by more than 4,000% in 2019 compared to the previous two years.

The two, however, remain in office until appeals are heard.

The defense of Casagrande and Osmar Leonardi said they disagree with the findings of the verdict.

“There was important evidence and arguments that were not taken into account. The representatives are confident that the conviction will be overturned by filing an appeal with the Paraná District Electoral Court, ”they said in a note.

According to the ruling, about R $ 170,000 was spent on advertising in the last week of 2019, and materials were used up during 2020, the year that the mayor and vice president were running for re-election.

“The abuse of political and economic power must be recognized and the seriousness must be marked by the mismatch in income and expenditure between candidates and the expectation that campaign advertising will translate into institutional advertising, which has given the re-elected candidate a significant advantage through personal advancement in the use of public resources.” – the resolution says.

The electoral court also ruled that the mayor of Casagrande was barred from being elected for eight years after the 2020 elections.

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