Connect with us

Politics

The Impact of Political Noise on Understanding the Brazilian Economy

Published

on

When assessing economic performance, it is impossible to ignore the political noise. For a long time, especially at the beginning of the reign BolsonaroThe immense confidence of the Brazilian financial market in Minister Paulo Guedes was constantly exploited by Bolsonar.

Even with important advances in social security reform, tax reform was far from what was promised in the beginning, as well as from privatization. Covid, of course, is considered, but, according to Guedes himself, the “political noise” eventually spoke up louder. This political uproar ultimately arose within the executive branch itself, because it prioritized confrontations and narratives that had no practical consequences for the economy.

Among the developing countries, Brazil is the country with the most undervalued exchange rate. Naturally, this has a direct impact on inflation, which is also one of the highest in the world among developing countries. Inflation, which was the main villain of consumers throughout the 1980s and early 1990s, seemed to be a problem of the past, always constrained by the actions of the central bank and the maintenance of a political narrative that was often negative but not so effective. on the progress of achieving economic goals.

On top of that, the country’s growth expectations are among the lowest, even after the constant talk that growth in 2022 will be “fantastic”. For Wall Street, as 2022 becomes an election year, the political uproar is likely to increase rather than decrease. Ultimately, this negatively affects the notion that growth will pleasantly surprise.

The political implications are so obvious, mainly because the world is showing a positive context for economic recovery in several countries. Commodity prices are recovering despite some short-term fluctuations in China. Economic recovery in the US and China tends to bring together countries that are “round” economically and politically stable.

See also  There are politicians, publicists and businessmen at Bolsonaro's headquarters

Looking specifically at Brazil, pandemic control, including good first-dose vaccination rates, should positively impact an economic recovery that did not happen as expected. All of this should contribute to growth, exchange rates, the stock market, and the short to medium term.

In Brazil, government supporters can blame this political environment on the STF, the press, Congress, etc. Whether fantasy or reality, in an investor context, it doesn’t really matter. For those who believe that the role of foreign investors is too great, it is important to remember that this flow of investment is part of an important engine of the economy.

Banks and mutual funds I spoke to emphasize that excuses do not matter. Facts and practical results are important. Brazil seems unreliable due to uncertainty. Uncertainty stems from politics, and politics works chaotically, when government priorities are conceptual, not necessarily practical.

If the short term is difficult, the medium term is no longer easy. Funds that follow long-term trajectories are associated with public debt financing. Interest rates continue to rise, further reducing the government’s maneuvering space. Bearing in mind that since 2022 is an election year, good economic performance or a feeling of good economic performance will make the government want to spend more.

When the economy is on a positive trajectory, the government does not need to boil the well with great enthusiasm. When economic perception becomes more politically important than economic efficiency itself (which usually happens in an election year), this is where the danger lies, and this is where debt shifts from exclusivity to habit.

See also  Musk says he prefers a 'less polarized' politician than Trump

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Politics

An open letter to a pastor-politician – Co-authors

Published

on

An open letter to a pastor-politician - Co-authors

My dear pastor, I will probably vote for you, and not for your struggle for faith, because I adhere to a different theology, because we respect our unusual beliefs, but I will vote for you, for your social cosmic vision, solidarity and beneficial influence on people who, in my opinion, are inalienable qualities of any politician, and in this we have common interests.

However, I regret that you registered as a “pastor” in the Electoral Justice for your candidacy, because I do not vote for the pastor of the church, I vote for the politics of the society and when you use the name of the profession, nothing depends on faith, it is different from those shepherds who usurp the confessional electorate, in the manner of modern colonels and their bridle oaths.

The current candidates for the pastor of the church often gain votes among their co-religionists and sometimes swearingly promise the blessings of the church and its ministers, and sometimes even call themselves candidates of God, daring to use the name of God. as if God chose him over others, because all his children and he has no formal preferences, he will only prefer those who do good.

Calling him by the name of Peter, John, James in no way detracts from him, on the contrary, his image was built as the cornerstone of the church, which welcomed and helped people of any race, religion, like a Samaritan on the way.

If you were a “political pastor” you would not run for elections because you know that the pastor is also involved in politics to build a more just society, however, since you are a “political pastor” you should refrain from using a religious nickname. aiming at the ballot box, which, by the way, is growing every day according to the Supreme Electoral Court, so as not to confuse the divine service with the ordinary electoral, and there are those who use conscience, who say that they are the mediators of God’s work in politics, but God has not given them power of attorney and does not need representatives for this, he prefers good people in politics, even if they are atheists.

See also  Ciro Nogueira condemns the senator who accused him of STF

Rogerio Silva University Professor, Ph.D. in Law and Constitutional Order (UFC). Author of the book Politics and Faith.


Continue Reading

Politics

Political party and Supreme play against tax cuts

Published

on

Political party and Supreme play against tax cuts

Brazilian industry shook up Minister Alexandre de Moraes. This is due to the fact that a presidential decree was issued to reduce FDI by 25% for a large list of goods. The political party filed a complaint with the Supreme Court, saying it would harm the Manaus Free Trade Zone. The case fell into the hands of Alexandre de Moraes, who issued an injunction suspending the decree.

The President of the Republic and Minister Paulo Guedes then removed products from the industry that were competitors or similar, leaving only those that did not compete with the Manaus Free Trade Zone. The decrease in IPI will be 35%. The same party appealed to the STF again, Alexandre de Moraes issued another injunction and canceled the decree again.

Now the National Confederation of Industry has received the signatures of all the federations of industry in the country, except, of course, the federations of Amazonas, as well as the federations of Amapa. They argue that Moraes’ decision creates uncertainty and impedes lower consumer prices, making it difficult for the economy to recover. The party that went to the STF against the decrees is Solidarity, it’s good that we know this. Solidarity may even defend the free trade zone in Manaus, but it does not advocate lower food prices for the rest of the country.

Alexandre de Moraes takes office as President of TSE

This Tuesday, at 19:00, at the headquarters of the TSE – a wonderful palace, I will show you a photo; it’s too luxurious, too big for something that organizes elections every two years, but still… – Boloznaro, Lula and Alexandre de Moraes are going to meet. And with them Dilma and Temer, since the former presidents were already invited; I assume that Fernando Enrique Cardoso was also invited, but I don’t know if he will come. The Presidents of the House, Senate, Supreme Court and other higher courts will still be present.

See also  Pandemic, myths about it and political uses of the health crisis

All of them will pass into the possession of Alexandre de Moraes, who will replace Edson Fachin at the head of the electoral justice; Finally, Fashin leaves, and now he is just in the Supreme Court. The ceremony gives a measure of the responsibility of the new TSE President. This is one of the most important elections in the history of this country. And Moraes should know very well what history records and does not forgive. They are all busy making the verification process safer for everyone to understand. Even the Armed Forces are helping – and it must be admitted that this was at the request of the most selective justice system.

Thursday ends deadline for those wishing to vote outside their electoral residence

Speaking of this, we must remember that we must all vote. There is an age when voting becomes optional, from 16 to 18 and then from 70, but we all go to vote. And anyone who is outside their electoral residence can vote too. But you have to ask, register with the electoral court, that you will vote in transit. Deadline expires: You must be on the electoral roll by Thursday 18. When voting en route, anyone in another state votes for President only; anyone in the same state will be able to vote normally, as well as governor, deputies, and senator. But let’s follow the deadline!

Content edited by: Marcio Antonio Campos

Continue Reading

Politics

The resolution approves an addition to the political and pedagogical project EJA – Jornal do Oeste

Published

on

The resolution approves an addition to the political and pedagogical project EJA - Jornal do Oeste

The Minister of Education published in the Official Gazette last Thursday (11) Resolution Smed no. The document refers to the Municipal Operational Instructions for the EJA in relation to its maintenance.

Article 1 of the document mentions that the Municipal Operational Guidelines for Phase 1 of the EJA should be consistent with the Operational Guidelines for the EJA established by the National Board of Education, in aspects related to their alignment with the National Common Curriculum Base (BNCC), with the National Literacy Program (PNA) , course duration and minimum age for entry.

They must also comply with the course registration form, the minimum age and EJA certification, the proposal with a focus on continuing education and training and the flexibility of the proposal in a way that is compatible with reality and course structure.

The paper explains that Phase 1, corresponding to the early years of primary education, will be offered in person, without matching professional qualifications, including only basic training, with a total workload of 1,500 hours spread over a minimum of two academic years and half organized every six months. duration of 100 days of effective school work.

Phase 1 is organized on a semester basis, in stages, with flexible time to complete the required workload, and for each stage there is a correspondence to the elementary nine-year elementary school years and specific workload. For the primary grades of elementary school, the application specifies that the workload will be at least 150 hours for learning the basic components of literacy and 150 hours for teaching basic math concepts.

See also  “Once upon a time there was a crisis”: “narratives” of the current national political moment

SERVICES – EJA Phase 1 students will be provided with the following services: EJA Directed, EJA Multiphase and EJA Vinculada. The EJA Directed document explains that this is an alternative to serving a working student at any stage of the modality who, for various reasons, has difficulty participating in activities at the beginning or end of the academic shift.

For these students, the system must develop the activities previously planned by the teachers in order to complete the workload provided for the learning component. The feasibility of the activities and the scope of work will be carried out only after the completion of the planned activities.

According to the document, a multi-stage JAO can be organized in cases where the number of students does not correspond to that established by the education system and / or when the physical or specific structure of the service does not support the composition of the classes by steps.

In this case, the municipal education system will be able to organize a multi-stage ERA to increase the attendance of full-time ERA, in situations and low demand that make it impossible to implement a modality change; difficulties with student mobility, for example, when studying rural subjects; street population, specific communities, refugees and migrants from literacy programs in hard-to-reach places, on the periphery, etc.

In turn, the term EJA Linked is equivalent to decentralized EJA, used to refer to EJA Phase 1 course classes that are located in other educational spaces, preferably in their own school units, also called welcome units, located outside of an authorized work school. . . .

See also  There are politicians, publicists and businessmen at Bolsonaro's headquarters

From the newsroom

TOLEDO

Continue Reading

Trending