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Political Clashes Will Pressure Stocks in 2021 – Market – Estadão E-Investidor – Highlights from the financial market



“Everything is expensive: gasoline, diesel, cooking gas. What does Petrobras have to do with it? Tomorrow, at 9:00 am, the plenary will become the General Committee to question the weight of the company’s prices for all of us. We should remember about Petrobras: its shareholders are Brazilians, ”said Arthur Lira, President of the Chamber of Deputies, on Twitter.

The federal deputy’s public statements on Monday (13) about an audience between Lira and the current CEO of the company, General Joaquim Silva and Luna, on Tuesday (14) in the general committee of the Chamber of Deputies, serve as an example. and the political risks hanging over the largest oil company in Brazil. Petrobras (PETR4 and PETR3), with nearly 70 years of history, is a company of monumental proportions with a focus on the country.

With no relevant competitors, Petrobras is responsible for oil exploration and fuel production in Brazil, with the result that the state-owned company has sometimes been used as a political tool to lower the prices of goods that carry a lot of weight in the pockets of the population, such as gasoline, diesel. and gas, Lear is quoted as saying.

For example, during Dilma’s rule, the use of an oil company to control inflation left a billion dollar hole in its finances. The shadow of this episode continues to haunt the market, which punishes stocks for any sign of fire. In the wake of fears that arose from the audience, PETR4 closed the trading session on Tuesday (14) with a fall of 1.33% to 25.88 reais.

Currently, the pricing policy is based on international parity, that is, fluctuations in the price of oil on the international market and the dollar.

“Pricing is a very important topic for Petrobras. We have seen in the past that when a state-owned company had to practice some kind of price freeze, it ended up losing money. Thus, fuel production was costly and he had to subsidize the price at the refinery. And in addition to the financial implications, it had a negative impact on the intervention when the controller (government) took action that affected the cash flow. This is not what we see now, ”says Ricardo Fransa, analyst at Ágora Investimentos.

Return in 2021

According to a survey conducted by Economatica Brasil with US oil companies listed on stock exchanges in Latin America and the United States, or with ADRs in New York with at least US $ 1. bln at market value, Petrobras shares showed the worst performance in 2021.

Between December 31, 2020 and September 13, 2021, PETR3 and PETR4 recorded estimates ranging from 1.49% to 0.93% (in USD). For comparison, the third worst paper on the list, owned by the American Kosmos Energy, gained 6.81% in the same period.

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Profitability of oil companies in 2021
Name Code Country Profit for the year (%) in dollars The stock market on which it is quoted
1 Petrobras PETR4 Brazil 0.93 Bovespa
2 Petrobras PETR3 Brazil 1.49 Bovespa
3 Cosmos Energy Ltd. KOS Bermuda 6.81 NYSE
4 Ypf SA YPFD Argentina 9.99 BYMA
5 Royal Dutch Shell Plc RDS.A Holland 14.74 NYSE
6 CNX Resources Corp CNX USA 15.28 NYSE
7 Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG USA 18.76 NYSE
eight Royal Dutch Shell Plc RDS.B Holland 19.19 NYSE
nine Eni Spa E Italy 27.27 NYSE
ten Pioneer Natural Resources Co PXD USA 38.34 NYSE
eleven Petrorio PRIO3 Brazil 38.46 Bovespa
12 Apache Corp WHAT KIND USA 42.62 NYSE
13 Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CNQ Canada 44.24 NYSE
fourteen EOG Resources Inc. EOG USA 44.78 NYSE
15 Cenovus Energy Inc. CVE Canada 46.03 NYSE
16 Occidental Petroleum Corp. OXY USA 54.12 NYSE
17 EQT Corp. EQT USA 57.12 NYSE
eighteen Petrochina Co Ltd PTR China 62.65 NYSE
19 Diamondback Energy, Inc Fang USA 63.41 NASDAQ
twenty Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG Canada 65.81 NYSE
Source: Economatica / Companies in the oil production segment with a market value of at least USD 1 billion as of October 13, 2021.

The performance of the shares of the state-owned company differs from the indicators presented in 2021. For example, in the second quarter of this year, net profit reached R $ 42.8 billion, offsetting the R $ 2.7 billion loss in the same period last year. year. last. EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) also reached R $ 61.9 billion, up 148% from the second quarter of 2020.

“Without a doubt, there is definitely a Q for political influence in this show. However, this result is also influenced by the development of a plan to sell Petrobras to sell assets, as well as the dynamics of oil barrels. These three aspects affect performance in the short term, ”says Hugo Queiroz, Director of TC Matrix. “Obviously, most of this pressure comes from the political environment, but the company has mechanisms to protect it from interference.”

Ilan Arbetman, an analyst at Ativa Investimentos, is of the same opinion. “There is no doubt that the political issue is important, yes, but you cannot put everything on top of it,” he explains. “When we look at multiples, Petrobras is closer to their Russian counterparts than their American counterparts. And there is also the issue of a green agenda with the transition to energy. ”

political sparks

Several political factors help explain this picture. At the beginning of the year, the change of former Petrobras CEO Antonio Castello Branco to Silva and Luna raised serious doubts about the continuity of the current fuel price policy based on international parity (depending on oil price fluctuations). on the international market). Fears were that the change would signal President Jair Bolsonaro’s intervention in the state-owned company in an attempt to artificially reduce gasoline and diesel levels.

At the time, Bolsonaro criticized the soaring fuel prices. On February 22nd, in the trading session following the announcement of the team change, the shares were knocked out and fell 20%. However, fears did not materialize, and today the General Silva e Luna administration is committed to maintaining the current pricing policy.

“Price fluctuations do not mean that Petrobras has influenced the price in any way,” Silva and Luna said in their speech at a hearing on Tuesday. “As a mixed capital company, (Petrobras) is committed to transparency, governance, integrity, social responsibility … which means taxes.”

Nonetheless, the sparks do not subside and continue to cause headaches for shareholders. For example, some states recently filed lawsuits against Petrobras for lying about the structure of fuel prices. The article by Silva and Luna states that the amount received by the company for each liter of gasoline will be only 2 reais, and the difference paid by the consumer for refueling will occur due to the presence of ICMS (state tax on gasoline turnover). goods and services) and other taxes.

This situation also reflects the clash between President Jair Bolsonaro and the state governments. “In the fuel price structure, ICMS is the most influential factor, accounting for the bulk of refinery added costs. Exchange rate fluctuations are obviously affecting Petrobras’ cash costs, but today they are putting much less pressure than ICMS, which is a big villain and is responsible for more than 20% of the average fuel price, ”says Queiroz. “And at that moment it, of course, could have been reduced.”

For Arbetman, Silva and Luna, this was necessary in the article. “He’s right when he talks about the more open play and the costs involved, it makes the discussion richer. This is the first step for sector leaders to come up with a formula, ”he says. “The text was very well written, but I avoid values ​​such as the 2 reais question because it is very difficult to be precise. It is impossible to know exactly the price at which this is done, ”he says.

Ativa also highlights the difficulty of constantly changing prices when the state-owned company cannot control the underlying variables (oil price and dollar).

The basics

Experts consulted Electronic investor unanimously highlight the unique moment that Petrobras is experiencing, with strong cash generation in recent quarters, debt control and an expectation of higher dividend payments in 2022.

“We view Petrobras as a discounted share with an attractive pricing, and much of that discount comes from Brazil’s risk and increased uncertainty as the 2022 election approaches. This leads to the fact that state-owned companies are left with poor volatility, ”says Fransa. “The company is likely to meet its leverage target this year, allowing the company to implement a new dividend distribution policy.”

“Petrobras has a positive dynamic in the market: a barrel of oil is over $ 70 and a very favorable exchange rate in terms of fuel. This has helped the company generate good income and, as a result, good operating margins, ”explains Queiroz. “In addition, he made sales, sold oil refining, distributors, now he has to sell thermal power plants, paying much more attention to oil production and production. All of this should help reduce debt. “

However, the recommendations do not follow a uniform direction. Fransa from Agora recommends buying paper with a target price of R $ 42. On the other hand, Ativa’s Arbetman remains wary of the company. “Today we give preference to positions that speak less on this political issue,” the expert said.

Defense mechanisms

According to France, one of the solutions to unleash political clashes over the formation of Petrobras prices and, as a result, the impact of noise on actions, would be a proposal to create a compensation mechanism.

“Setting up a compensation fund that is not subsidized by a state-owned company would be good to reduce perceptions of wealth,” he says. “This fund will be used during periods when the dollar or oil is very high so that the price is not too high for the consumer.”

Sale of refineries already carried out by a state-owned company will also be important to reduce the likelihood of interference. “While this is an important division for the outcome, historically there has been some kind of interference in the processing. If Petrobras continues to mitigate risk in this segment, the opportunity for intervention will ultimately be reduced and government power will ultimately be limited, ”says Fransa.

As for Arbetman, it would be rather difficult to create a fund. “To make this fund, you need resources. I don’t think this proposal is ideal, I think it is less aggressive than introducing or abolishing the tax and having, as in some countries, maximum and minimum prices, working in groups, ”he concludes.

According to Queiroz, Petrobras’ charter already protects it from potential interference, and the political uproar should not worry investors, despite the fact that it will affect actions in the short term. “The Charter stipulates that the company will receive compensation if the government intervenes. Another obstacle is the advanced process of selling refineries, ”he explains.

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PR Course in Selective Justice Encourages Equal Participation in Politics



Curso da Justiça Eleitoral do PR estimula participação igualitária na política

The Women in Politics Commission and the Parana District Electoral Court Judicial School (TRE-PR) are promoting the online training course Women in Politics: Forming Candidates in 2022. From October 5 to October 28, classes will be offered to all comers with round-the-clock certification for those who gain at least 75% of the attendance. The limited course is free. Applications are accepted until September 30.

Make registration

Classes will be held on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 19:00 to 22:15 and 23.10 (Saturday) from 8:30 to 10:30, replacing 10.12 (Tuesday), the national holiday. The aim is to raise awareness of the importance of equal participation in politics by providing nominating tools that promote greater equality, fairness and democracy.


Flavia da Costa Viana, Chief Justice and Executive Director of the TRE-PR School, said this edition of the course will reflect on the importance of diversity in political debate. “Attention will be paid not only to the need for greater participation of women in public life, but also to other minority groups.”

The judge emphasizes that it is never superfluous to recall the words of Minister Barroso in his inaugural speech to the High Electoral Court (TSE): “The involvement of idealistic and competent women in politics is an important requirement of the country. Women make up half of the population. And black, brown or indigenous people make up half of the women. We need to increase diversity in Brazilian public life. We are a multinational, multiracial, multicultural country. We must realize that this is an asset, a dignity, a privilege that history has given us. “

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According to Judge of the 174th Electoral Zone of Curitiba (PR) and President of the Women in Politics Commission, Adriana de Lourdes Simette, “The idea is to convey relevant information about the electoral and electoral process so that when elections approach, women and people involved in politics, regardless of party and ideological nuances, can be better prepared to participate in the next elections. “

The following topics are discussed during the course: legal aspects of women’s participation; political parties; budget and campaign funding; accountability; Communication; ballot box security and verification of electronic voting; registration of the application; democracy; diversity; social networks and civil language.

This is the second edition of a series of lectures that first took place in October 2019. The initiative is part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the 2030 Agenda of the United Nations (UN) Global Compact. In particular, it responds to the goals set in Goal 5, which aims to achieve gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls. It is also in line with Objective 9 of the judiciary, which encourages action to prevent or reverse litigation related to the 2030 Agenda SDGs.


Politics and Women’s Participation: Legal Aspects and the Opinion of Those Who Judge
Ina Barbosa Honda and Sousa – chapter 50 of the electoral zone of Araucaria
Date: 05.10, from 19:00 to 21:00

Political parties
Jaime Barreiros Neto – server of the Bahia Electoral Court
Dates: October 5 from 21:15 to 22:15 and October 7 from 19:00 to 20:00.

Campaign budgeting and funding
Denise Schlickmann – Secretary for Internal Control and Audit of Electoral Justice Santa Catarina
Date: 07.10, from 20:15 to 21:30

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Political communication on social networks: has everything migrated to the Internet?
Rubian Kreutz – Public Relations Coordinator of the Electoral Court of the State of Parana
Date: 07.10, from 21:30 to 22:15

Paulo Sergio Estevez – Coordinator of Electoral and Party Accounts of the Electoral Court of Paraná
Date: 14.10, from 19:00 to 20:00

Ballot box security and e-voting verification
Roni Cesar de Oliveira – Head of the Ballot Box Administration Section of the Electoral Court of the State of Parana
Dates: 14.10 from 20:15 to 21:30 and 28.10 from 20:45 to 22:15

Civil language: how to communicate in a simple and inclusive way
Melissa Diniz Medroni – Head of Journalism Production at the Electoral Court of the State of Parana
Date: 14.10, from 21:30 to 22:15

Elections, advertising and social media
Ana Carolina de Camargo Cleves – Professor of Constitutional and Electoral Law at the Center for the Autonomous University of Brazil (UniBrasil) and President of the Paraná Institute for Suffrage (IPRADE)
Dates: 19.10 from 19:00 to 20:30 and 26 October from 19:00 to 20:30.

Public Speaking and Campaign Assertiveness
Sirley Masil – Professor of Public Speaking and President of the Institute for Learning, Research and Creature Development (INTREPEDS)
Dates: 19.10 from 20:45 to 22:15 and 26.10 from 20:45 to 22:15

Political communication and women’s campaigns
Luciana Pahnke – Researcher and Professor at the Department of Communication at the Federal University of Parana (UFPR)
Date: 21.10, from 19:00 to 20:30 and from 20:45 to 22:15

Registration of candidacy
Daniel Morgado Maemura – Judicial Secretary of the Electoral Court of Parana
Date: 23.10, from 8:30 to 10:30

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diversity in politics
Polianne Santos – Advisor to the Vice President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE) and founder of the Feminine Visibility project
Date: 23.10, from 10:45 to 12:15

Political reform, women’s participation and democracy
Ana Claudia Santano – Research Professor of the Higher Education Program in Law of the Autonomous University Center of Brazil (Unibrasil)
Date: 28.10, from 19:00 to 20:30


Course “Women in Politics: Forming Candidates 2022”
When: from 5 to 28 October
Enrollment: from 20 to 30 September
Transmission: via the Zoom platform. An access link will be sent to registered people by email.

A source: TRE-PR

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The political scientist believes that the highlight of the electoral reform is the veto of the coalitions



The political scientist believes that the highlight of the electoral reform is the veto of the coalitions

Political scientist Rafael Cortez believes that the main highlight of the electoral reform is the veto of party coalitions in the elections of deputies and councilors.

“The main reason for the noticeable influence of this veto is that proportional coalitions fictitiously used voter representation, since the number of electoral coalitions was not maintained throughout the entire legislative process, but varied only to count votes and increase the number of seats of a particular party,” Cortez explained. CNN

The political scientist argues that voters had no control over where their vote went. “In the end I voted for candidate A and helped choose the name of party B, which clearly contradicted the will of the voter.”

The Senate approved this Wednesday (22) in two rounds a Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) electoral reform and canceled the return of coalitions. The proposal gives more weight to votes for women and blacks while dividing party resources.

Since the Senate suppressed only those parts that did not reach consensus, such as the return of party unions, there is no need for PECs to return to the Chamber of Deputies. The text is now due to be made public by the President of Congress, Senator Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG), by October 2. If this does not happen by that date, the rules will not apply to next year’s elections.

According to Cortez, the political system in Brazil is very complex from the point of view of the electorate. “It is very difficult to trace where this vote is going, because, in fact, as soon as we vote for a candidate, we vote for a party without knowing it. For example, it is unlikely that a deputy is elected only by the personal votes that he receives. The vote of the elected deputy is the sum of the individual votes with the votes cast by the people in the party legend. “

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Election Court Cancels Mandates of Mayor and Deputy Campo Magro for Abuse of Political and Economic Power | Parana



Election Court Cancels Mandates of Mayor and Deputy Campo Magro for Abuse of Political and Economic Power |  Parana

The electoral court has revoked the mandates of the mayor of Campo Magro in the Curitiba metropolitan area, Claudio Cesar Casagrande (PSD) and Deputy Mayor Osmar Leonardi (PSC) for abuse of political and economic power.

The decision from Monday (20) said the city increased its municipal administration’s advertising spending by more than 4,000% in 2019 compared to the previous two years.

The two, however, remain in office until appeals are heard.

The defense of Casagrande and Osmar Leonardi said they disagree with the findings of the verdict.

“There was important evidence and arguments that were not taken into account. The representatives are confident that the conviction will be overturned by filing an appeal with the Paraná District Electoral Court, ”they said in a note.

According to the ruling, about R $ 170,000 was spent on advertising in the last week of 2019, and materials were used up during 2020, the year that the mayor and vice president were running for re-election.

“The abuse of political and economic power must be recognized and the seriousness must be marked by the mismatch in income and expenditure between candidates and the expectation that campaign advertising will translate into institutional advertising, which has given the re-elected candidate a significant advantage through personal advancement in the use of public resources.” – the resolution says.

The electoral court also ruled that the mayor of Casagrande was barred from being elected for eight years after the 2020 elections.

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