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From energy crisis to political instability; see the main points that harm GDP – 09/01/2021 – Market

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From energy crisis to political instability;  see the main points that harm GDP - 09/01/2021 - Market

The GDP result below government and financial market estimates has raised concerns about several risks to the economic recovery in 2021. These include the climate-driven water crisis and the political-institutional crisis fueled by President Jair Bolsonaro (no party).

There are also concerns about the discontinuation of emergency services, a possible escalation of the health crisis due to the Delta variant of the Coronavirus and the continuing lack of resources for the industry, in addition to rising interest rates, inflation and still high levels. unemployment rate.

Check out the main concerns raised by economists after announcing that Brazil’s GDP (gross domestic product) contracted 0.1% in the second quarter, in contrast to the recovery seen in several other countries over the same period.

Water and energy crisis

The rise in electricity bills and its impact on inflation have already hurt the second quarter result, according to BIGS itself, as it further reduced the purchasing power of families and helped halt consumption. Possible rationing (the president himself has already mentioned the risk of shutting down some factories) will lead to a decrease in economic activity.

The Bank of America report says it expects economic activity to continue to moderate in the third quarter due to factors such as the discontinuation of emergency aid, increased political noise, resource constraints and low water levels in reservoirs. The organization has kept its economic growth forecast at 5.2% this year and 2.1% in 2022.

Goldman Sachs revised its 2021 estimate from 5.4% to 4.9%, believing that there will be no major restrictions on energy supply, and counting on a gradual normalization of the supply chain and a pandemic control system.

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institutional crisis

Threats of disrespect for the Constitution and other powers by President Jair Bolsonaro are also seen as a risk to economic recovery.

“There is constant tension between the executive and the judiciary, which increases institutional risk and negatively affects asset prices, especially the dollar and interest. Due to political risk, next year we will still have increasing electoral risk, ”says Genial Investimentos.

“Resistance to inflation and uncertainty about the government’s ability to control government deficits discourage new investment. And the institutional turmoil in recent weeks has not fostered a sustained recovery in economic activity. This scenario postpones investment decisions that will lead to new jobs to support the sector’s recovery, ”says Eduardo Zaidan, vice president of economics at SindusCon-SP (Construction Union).

health crisis

Commenting on the GDP result, Minister Paulo Guedes (Economics) said that the second quarter was the most tragic period of the pandemic and that economic performance was “flat.” According to many analysts, the forecasts for the recovery depend on a decrease in the number of deaths and infections, which will allow the economy to reopen.

According to Genial Investimentos, in advanced economies, the interval between the detection of the Delta variant and a significant increase in the number of cases occurred on average after 90 days. “As a result, it is especially important to track the pandemic in September – Delta was identified in the country in June.”

Lack of industrial resources

Lack of resources is cited as one of the factors explaining the decline in Brazilian industry in the second quarter.

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“Manufacturing is affected by the effects of resource scarcity in production chains, as is the case for the automotive industry, which is dealing with a shortage of electronic components. This is an activity that does not meet demand, ”said Rebeca Palis, National Accounts Coordinator at IBGE.

Falling income and unemployment

The engine of the Brazilian economy, household consumption remained unchanged in the second quarter. In the coming months, the discontinuation of emergency assistance, rising interest rates, inflation and still high unemployment are seen as risks.

The Banco Original report said that in terms of demand, household consumption was the most disappointing, reflecting concerns such as rising inflation and high unemployment.

“Number [0%]however, it reinforces the understanding that a significant portion of the indirect savings made by the richest families during the pandemic have still not been spent, ”the bank added.

Gustavo Cruz, strategist at RB Investimentos, says the context of rising interest rates and inflation hurts household consumption, but vaccination rate this could be a great asset for securing economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Rapid decline in incentives abroad

Genial Investimentos also sees the risk that the US central bank (Fed) will facilitate a quick cut in economic stimulus, making the scenario more difficult for developing countries. “However, in our estimation, this process will be gradual and the base rate will remain close to zero for a long period.”

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Politics

Elite politician and businessman arrested on charges of murdering his wife

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Last September, the politician gave an interview about the murder of his wife (ANN archive)

Monday (28) police announced the arrest political, Representative of the Legislative Assembly of Nagano Prefecture 丸山大輔, 48, as a suspect in the murder of his wife希美, aged 47, was found dead on September 29 last year on the first floor of a house next to the sake factory in Shiojiri (Nagano).

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According to policea politician’s wife died of asphyxiation caused by asphyxiation and the estimated time of death was in the early morning of the same day.

The husband was excluded from the number of suspects in murder because it was alibisaying that he was in the House of Representatives because there was a meeting in the morning.

husband and political who was arrested, was born into a sake-producing family founded in 1883, and graduated from the economics department of the renowned Keio University.

A member of the Liberal Democratic Party (PLD), he began his career as a legislator for the city of Shiojiri in 2015 and was elected as a provincial representative in 2019. Nagano.

As Nozomi’s wife was lying near the office safe, it was suspected that she wanted the money, but doubts were in the air as there was no sign that it had been broken into from the inside.

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After the fall alibia police analyze that an elite politician and businessman acted alone, but did not say whether he suspected suspicion of murder.

In connection with death wifeabout political gave several interviews, saying “I have no idea who is to blame and I can’t help but get angry. I urge (the culprit) to surrender.”

Fontes: ANN e Tokyo Sports

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Politics

STF to consider Sergio Cabral’s habeas corpus petition next week

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published on 28.11.2022 20:28


(credit: WALTER CAMPANATO-ADB)

The Second Bench of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) will consider, starting next week, habeas corpus submitted by the defense former Governor of Rio de Janeiro Sergio Cabral🇧🇷 If the request of the lawyers is granted, the politician can be released. He was convicted by former judge Sergio Moro of the Federal Court of Curitiba as part of Operation Lava Hato.

The decision will be taken at the virtual plenary session of the Court from 9 to 16 December. The rapporteur is Minister Edson Fachin. In the appeal filed, Cabral’s lawyers argue that the case should not have been tried in the state capital of Paraná and ask for the convictions to be overturned.

Last December, the STF overturned one of the sentences against Sergio Cabral., determined by Judge Marcelo Bretas for Operation Reveal Fracture. For the Second Bench of the Court, there was no connection between the medical anomalies and the corruption found in the Secretariat of Works that led to Operation Calicut, the first lawsuit against the former governor.

This decision did not affect the retention of Cabral, and five warrants for his preventive arrest remained in force. The politician has 21 convictions, which is a total of 399 years and 11 months in prison.

Arrested by Lava Jato

Sergio Cabral, the former governor of Rio, served six years in prison this year. Arrested in Operation Lava Jato, he is the only major politician still incarcerated due to the schemes the task force investigated.

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Cabral was arrested by the Federal Police during Operation Calicut on charges of accepting bribes in exchange for contracts for works such as the refurbishment of the Maracanã, Arco Metropolitano and PAC das Favelas. The Federal Public Ministry (MPF) convicted the politician in 37 criminal cases, 35 of which were related to Lava-Jato. He is accused of crimes such as corruption, money laundering, criminal organization and currency evasion.

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Politics

US press conference turns discussion on political issues with Iran

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US press conference turns discussion on political issues with Iran

Team USA coach Gregg Berchalter at a press conference (Photo: Hector Vivas – FIFA/FIFA via Getty Images)

The US press conference on the eve of the World Cup match against Iran was prickly. The game is tomorrow (29) at 4:00 pm, and the Q&A session with coach Gregg Berhalter and captain Tyler Adams was tense, talking more about conflicts between nations than football.

Journalists, especially from Iran, behaved more aggressively during interrogations. The game, in addition to the political scenario, also had controversy during this World Cup, as a US social media post removed the emblem of Iran from its flag, as ostensibly support for the protests that are taking place in the country. The Iranian federation has already asked to exclude North Americans from the Cup.

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Gregg Berkhalter and Tyler Adams’ strategy was to try to minimize off-field time and deal more with World Cup-related issues as both teams struggle to reach the round of 16.

“When I think about this match, I know that it is connected to other things, other feelings. But for us, it’s a football match against a good team, a knockout match where both teams are trying to qualify. Confrontation. Sport. should unite countries, as we see at the Olympics. Like brothers,” Berhalter began.

“We have no idea what is being done, what is being published [nas redes sociais]🇧🇷 I don’t want to sound like I don’t care, but these players have worked very hard to get here and we are focused on our work. All we can do is apologize on behalf of the players and our staff.”

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“I don’t understand international politics, I’m a coach. I can’t answer that” and “I came here to talk about the United States, not about Jurgen Klinsman. trainer phrases.

Adams was accused of mispronouncing the name Iran. In addition, he was asked about the defense of the US, a country with racism problems.

“Sorry for the mispronunciation. There is discrimination everywhere, which I can confirm by living outside my country. In the United States, we are making progress every day. progress,” he said.

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