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Markets Warn of Political Risk in Chile, Colombia and Peru | Economy

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Markets Warn of Political Risk in Chile, Colombia and Peru |  Economy
Street in the community of Morro San Cristobal in Lima.Paolo Aguilar / EFE

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The economies of Chile, Colombia and Peru are showing strength even amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, according to various investment banks and the country’s rating agency, but their political environment is contributing to market volatility. In reports released this week, analysts expressed concerns about populist politics, pressure on public finances and social unrest.

“The intense electoral cycle in the Andean region is increasing financial uncertainty amid growing pressure from social spending,” analysts at Fitch Ratings wrote in a report released Thursday. Chile will elect a new president later this year, elections will take place in Colombia in early 2022, and Peru has recently been sworn in by a new government. “Political tensions and social unrest that could impede economic growth or fiscal consolidation accumulated before the pandemic exposed weak health and social safety nets and income inequality,” the company said in a report.

Chile

The Chilean economy grew 1% in the second quarter of this year from the previous quarter, according to official data released on Wednesday. This slight slowdown from 3.4% growth in the first quarter is due to an increase in the number of infections reported in March, forcing the authorities to reintroduce containment measures. But economic forces such as private consumption, government spending, and investment continued to develop.

“Looking ahead, another round of withdrawals from pension funds, still low interest rates, strong global copper demand and a massive vaccination campaign should help the economy gain momentum in the coming quarters, which means Chile is in a good position to spearhead the region’s economic recovery this year, ”said Luciano Rostagno, market strategist at investment bank Mizuho, ​​in an address to clients. “We project gross domestic product to grow 10% this year, up from 9.0% the previous year.”

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Fitch, for its part, highlighted the government policies promoted by Congress in its report: “The most well-defined constitutional reform process in Chile has frustrated the population in the institutional environment, but Congress has initiated populist measures such as the withdrawal of funds from pension funds, and the presidential race remains open. “. Fitch downgraded Chile’s sovereign debt rating during the pandemic, but maintained investment grade.

Colombia

Colombia’s GDP grew 17.6% in the second quarter compared to the same period last year, but fell 2.4% from the previous quarter – more contraction than analysts had predicted. “Manufacturing, construction, and wholesale and retail trade saw a sharp decline in production in the second quarter amid rising coronavirus infections and disruptions caused by violent protests,” Rostagno said.

“We expect Colombia’s economy to pick up momentum in the coming quarters, as a marked drop in coronavirus cases allows the economy to resume operations and rebound, and favorable trade conditions will help boost the industrial sector,” said the markets specialist. “However, we must bear in mind that political uncertainty remains a major obstacle and can hamper investment.”

Polls show left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro will enter the second round of Colombia’s presidential elections in June, Fitch said in its report. “Petro does not advocate constitutional change, and the system of checks and balances will prevent radical changes in politics. The tax reform proposals were revised after widespread reaction, ”the agency added. Fitch downgraded Colombia this year, causing its debt to lose its investment grade.

Peru

Peru’s economy was also impacted by mobility restrictions at the start of the second quarter, so analysts expect quarterly GDP, which will be released on Monday, to be close to the level of the previous quarter.

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“In June, activity continued to show strong year-on-year growth, even above the level reached in June 2019 (before the health crisis),” analysts at investment bank BBVA said in a report released this week. “And employment is also following a normalization trajectory, but weak confidence in private sector agents is likely to affect their future spending, holding back both activity recovery and employment.”

Weak confidence refers to the uncertainty that investors have expressed about Peru since the rise to power of President Pedro Castillo, whose government has already passed its first resignation and has been criticized for mistakes and lack of clarity. “Political uncertainty remains high in Peru following the election of Pedro Castillo with a leftist populist platform,” Fitch analysts say. “Castillo has moderated some of the campaign’s proposals, and radical changes in the free market economic model will be met with resistance.”

“But their plans for a Constituent Assembly could impact investment and growth prospects,” the agency added. “Governance challenges overshadow the prospects for reforms to reduce informality in the labor market.”

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Politics

Fake news dampens political and election debate, Saretta says

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Fake news dampens political and election debate, Saretta says

Congressman Neody Saretta (PT) said this Wednesday (5th) in the Legislative Assembly (Alesc) that the dissemination of information that attempts to sway voters to lie, so-called fake news, is eclipsing pre-election and political debate. “We can’t just keep discussing recruitment, I don’t know what, we have to look at the reality of people who are suffering and hardworking and who are sometimes misled by some kind of false news.”

He recalled how strongly the system and electoral justice were attacked, but despite speculation and mistrust, “the system worked, people voted for whom they wanted, polling stations opened and votes appeared there, as a citizen contributed. ”

According to him, in the second round we will have the opportunity to really discuss the proposals. “Our candidate Desio Lima did well in the elections when he got through to the second round and I’m sure he will take part in the debate about what’s best for SC and our municipalities.”

The MP said that politicians have a mission to work to improve people’s lives and that much remains to be done. “We have people who cannot afford to buy their own food, who are squeezing their salaries from everywhere to get through the month. There are many people who need more effective action from our governments.”

He hopes that the second round will discuss what is best for the population, its conditions and quality of life, “so that the state can guarantee people more services and have a larger share of the national pie, since so much is collected and little is returned.”

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Thanks
Saretta thanked the people of Santa Catarina who believed and supported her candidacy, which allowed her to remain in the Assembly for another four years and continue the work that she is doing. “I thank those who participated in the electoral process, correctly, with dignity, as it should be,” he said.

According to him, walking around Santa Catarina and talking with the population during the action, many did not understand how the state fund has free resources and people continue to wait two or three years for admission, surgery, medical care. “Karma that cannot last,” he commented.

Similarly, while traveling on the roads, whether federal or state highways, the MP was reminded of the appalling traffic conditions that put those who work with their trucks, transport goods, as well as those who travel with their family or go on foot, at risk.

“Santa Catarina needs to take a closer look at these health and infrastructure issues. I defended it and took it as a real flag of life, because I understand that the key to any government is to serve the people, and health should come first.

Saretta drew attention to the problem of huge social inequality, which depends on the actions of the federal government, which cannot turn its back on those who have the least, those who need it most. “The population cannot be prejudiced against immigrant brothers, almost all of us are immigrants in one way or another, from the present or from the past, and we, unfortunately, see the spread of discriminatory ideas when we are all equal people.”

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Juliana Wilke
Collective consulting | Bench for physical education in Alesc | 48 3221 2824 [email protected]Twitter: @PTnoparlamento | Facebook: PT without Parliament

Source: Agency ALESC – Offices

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Politics

Political support for sports!

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Vila Nova deve estrear no Olímpico nesse Goianão 2022

In the 2022 elections, some sports-related names in Goiás tried to compete for a seat in the Legislative Assembly or in the National Congress, but did not succeed in the elections. Dante do Volei was not elected as a federal deputy, nor were Edson Automoveis, former councilor of Goiania, and Luis Bercuo, former president of the Goiás Basketball Federation, were not elected as state deputies. All of them have a list of relevant services provided to the Brazilian sport. They have earned a seat in Parliament.

Of the candidates strongly associated with sports, Daniel Vilela, who was elected lieutenant governor on the list of Ronaldo Cayado, succeeded. Daniel is a former professional soccer player. He has the right to represent the segment. Daniel Vilela is expected to have a strong focus on sports through the expansion of sports promotion programs in our state.

Goiás has interesting projects and sports support programs. Pro-Atleta is committed to serving high performance athletes; Construcindo Champions, a martial arts training program with about 7,900 students from Goiás; The Viva Mais Goias program targets seniors in 19 cities across the state.

The sports and parasports centers have been established by the State Department of Sports and Recreation (Seel) in cooperation with the municipalities of the hinterland. Also in partnership with the organizer of the championship of Spain, Seel implements the social project La Liga Goias with the distribution of sports materials in several municipalities of Goias.

Through Seel, the government promotes various sporting events and competitions. The Open Games of Goiás, the largest sports competition in the state, are designed for the participation of athletes from all the municipalities of Goiás in 21 uniforms. This year, the Quilombola Cup was created, which is held in six stages with the final in the city of Cavalcante.

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At the national level, the Senate approved Bill 940 of 2022, which extends until 2027 the tax benefits provided by the Sports Promotion Act (Act 11,438 of 2006). The rapporteur on this issue was the former player Romario, who was re-elected as a senator from the PL of Rio de Janeiro. In addition to extending the term, the Senate-approved rule increases the rates that companies and individuals can use in their annual income tax (IT) contributions and includes elementary, middle and high schools as fundraisers.

In the case of individual taxpayers, the new LIE increases from 6% to 7% of the IRPF due to the deduction limit as a donation or sponsorship for sports and parasports projects. This, together with contributions to funds for children and the elderly, to cultural projects and investments in audiovisual works.

In the case of companies, it increases the deduction limit for donations or sponsorships of sports and parasports projects from 1% to 2%. It also includes projects for social inclusion through sports, up to a collective limit of 4%, which is currently shared only between cultural projects and investments in audiovisual works.

I think laws and programs to encourage sports should go beyond sponsoring athletes and teams from different sports. They also need to contain strategies for social inclusion. Only in this way will the entire population benefit from physical and sporting activities, leading to a healthier life for all.

We hope that elected politicians will follow through on the promises made during the campaign and step up action in favor of sport. We want to see the plate!

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Portugal wants to give more voice to youth and promote women in politics |

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The Portuguese prime minister spoke to UN News about the opportunities and challenges in politics: internally, he is betting on the expectation of seeing a woman at the helm of government in the future, if the Portuguese choose to do so.

In foreign policy, Costa is in favor of expanding the exchange between young people from the Community of Portuguese-Speaking Countries, Corporal.

Reconstruct broke denomination

Antonio Costa was interviewed UN news at the end of September, when he participated in the debate of international leaders at the General Assembly.

Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa. Photo: UN//Mark Garten.

“Portugal is really proud. A week ago, the government was equal at the level of ministers. There was a small alteration in which parity was violated. In short, the prime ministers and presidents of the republic will be chosen by the Portuguese. I really hope that I will have a woman prime minister again. One already was. And who knows if there will be another one in the future. Let’s see.”

According to the government website, there are eight women in Costa’s current cabinet of 17 ministers. At the second level, there are 12 secretaries of state.

The only head of government in Portuguese history remained in office for about six months. María de Lourdes Pintasilgo was appointed by President Ramallo Eanes to the post and became the first and only woman to serve as prime minister. At that time, she was second in Western Europe after Margaret Thatcher, who came to power in 1979 and left in 1990.

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In the Assembly of the Portuguese Republic, out of 230 seats, 85 are held by women and 145 by men.

Crescent movement

António Costa also mentioned Portugal’s cooperation with the Community of Portuguese Speaking Countries, Cplp, and said that consolidating his position is one of the tasks that should remain a priority in the block of nine countries.

Flags of Portuguese speaking countries. Photo: cplp

“I see great opportunities to promote Cplp as an international political issue. I have noticed that there is a growing movement of countries wishing to become CPLP observers because they have realized that, unlike other international organizations, the CPLP must be geographically global. Almost every continent has a CPLP country. The fact that he has a great capacity for political articulation, and this is very beneficial. We supported each other in various international positions. This gives a very significant relative weight to the CPLP countries.”

Costa emphasized that the group of nations is connected not only by past relationships. Angola has been chairing the bloc since 2021.

“We must significantly improve economic relations. I think of many countries as examples of how relationships can be reinvented after such a long colonial period. By the way, longer than most others. So tough: we should not forget that for three years and at least on three fronts an absurd colonial war was waged, which ended only in 1974. So the ability is that we had the ability to reinvent ourselves in our relationships.”

Communication between young people

Costa also advocates for greater connection between young people from Member States who have a network and space to think about.

“Many European countries that I see see this relationship with Cplp as an interesting experience in overcoming and rethinking new relationships. And there is a big problem that we have: new generations. Fortunately, new generations have fewer memories, but also fewer connections with each other. We must create mechanisms to maintain these relations, and therefore I think that the mobility agreement is very important in order for these relations to continue to strengthen between our peoples.”

The purpose of the future mobility system is to establish short-stay, temporary and residence visas between Member States.

This year in New York there was no meeting of the leaders of the bloc, traditionally organized on the sidelines of the General Assembly.

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