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Impeachment seems to be falling on Brasilia, but appearances are deceiving – 07/09/2021 – Demetrio Magnoli

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Impeachment seems to be falling on Brasilia, but appearances are deceiving - 07/09/2021 - Demetrio Magnoli

Lead clouds. Bolsonaro’s approval ratings have dropped to 25% as high-profile financial and agribusiness companies finally leave the president. The siege ends in Congress, with KPI Covida, and in the streets, with demonstrations amid a complete pandemic. The shadow of impeachment seems to be falling on Brasilia. However, the most classic cliché is at work here: appearances are deceiving.

Impeachment requires, in addition to the crimes of responsibility that cannot be avoided, a high level of political and social consensus. Political consensus: an impressive parliamentary majority break with Planalto. Social consensus: majority rejection of the presidential figure, expressed not only in public opinion polls, but also in mass mobilizations of the population. Both preconditions are missing in the script.

In its first phase, the CPI Covid documented a vast collection of public health crimes collected by the federal government. Typically, the CPI has a mission to solve riddles. In the case of the ongoing CPI, there was no mystery: in the afternoon, the federal government left the country at the mercy of the pandemic, catastrophically exacerbating the health crisis. The task of the senators was limited to collecting evidence of crimes committed by the president and his inner circle.

The mission was accomplished – but instead of a devastating report, the political and legal basis for the impeachment of the president, the CPI turned into a maze of investigations into obscure corruption schemes in the procurement of vaccines. The new focus turns it into an electoral strategy tool. Renan Calleiros played a decisive role in the reorientation, which is by no means accidental.

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Corruption has been a constant musical note in national political life since the redemocratisation. Today, the shift in focus from a larger crime against public health to a smaller one – the corrupt gimmicks associated with the Covaxin contract serves the interests of Lula’s campaign. Until 2003, PT imagined itself to be a supporter of something else: an island of holiness in the middle of an ocean of debauchery. After the traumas of the monthly allowance and gasoline, he changed his discourse, beginning to imagine himself as a party of equals: we are no more and no less corrupt than others.

In this light, the CPI is destined to stamp corruption on Bolsonar’s forehead. His final report, delayed until the timetable, will not serve as a rift between Congress and Planalto, but will serve as an electoral alibi.

The streets are also not what they seem. Led by parties and movements that revolve around Lulizmo, anti-soreness demonstrations are designed to avoid unity. It is for this reason, along with the banner of impeachment, that organizers are raising standards against “neoliberal politics” and privatization.

Vivian Mendes of the People on the Street coalition expresses her opposition to united front tactics: “We are working to ensure that the right-wing forces do not have a say in the streets. The street belongs to everyone, but we will strive to make sure they do not have a voice or protagonism. ”Translation: street protests should prepare the election campaign by crystallizing the polarization between Bolsonaro and Lula.

Limited mobilization operation in operation. Demonstrations are large enough to have political impact, but remain limited enough not to provoke an unwanted outcome. The intention is not to stop the president, but to besiege him in his bunker in Brasilia before election day.

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The national interest is to oust the disastrous president who has surrendered the nation to the coronavirus and, threatening democracy, plans to fight inevitable electoral defeat. On the other hand, the interests of the leftist lula are to prolong the tragedy and return to the government in the first round of elections. The bankruptcy of the so-called political “center” ensures the victory of the second over the first.

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Politics

PSDB collapse: toucans may disappear from the political map

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The SDB is in crisis. Little remains of the party, founded in 1988 by social democrats Fernando Enrique Cardoso, Mario Covasa and Franco Montoro, among others, shortly after the fall of the dictatorship and which has remained at the center of the country’s political debate ever since, precisely because it prepared leaders to make changes. into a backwardness scenario.

This happened, for example, in 1994 when the toucans created the Real Plan and stabilized the economy. With less and less capacity for dialogue with society, the party today has become a Babylon where almost no one gets along. The result of this confusion, which began to emerge after the failure of the 2014 presidential campaign led by Esio Neves, became more pronounced on Sunday 2.

The party, which in its heyday even elected eight governors at once, as happened in 2010, this time did not elect a single one, despite the presence of toucans in the second round in four states (RS, MS, PB and PE), even if everyone would be in second place and with a small chance of being elected. The most significant defeat came to the government of São Paulo, the birthplace of the legend and where it was the dominant political force for nearly three decades. The biggest mistake here was made by advertisers who were unable to “sell” to the voters the important achievements of the administration of Joao Doria and Rodrigo Garcia.

KNOCK SHOT Esio Neves and Eduardo Leite (below) acted to reject the democratic process that saw Doria elected to run for president.
Wagner Pires

As a result of the mistakes of the national leadership of the association, especially President Bruno Araujo, who did everything not to put forward his own presidential candidate, excluding Doria from the dispute, Tucano’s bench elected to the next legislature of the Chamber is the smallest in history: only 13 federal deputies – 35 were elected in 2018 – and the party did not elect a single new senator beyond the six it already had. “The party is getting smaller,” admits an important PSDB source. Traditionally, the party had at least 50 federal deputies and rivaled in size the then giants MDB and PT. In the 2018 elections, as Geraldo Alcmín’s presidential campaign weakened, the number of parliamentarians in the House fell to 28. The electoral failure is in no way reminiscent of the party that opposed the PT in every presidential election from 1994 to 2014. This time he limited himself to the appointment of Senator Mara Gabrilli (PSDB-SP) as deputy to Simone Tebet (MDB-MS), who came third in the dispute with just over 4% of the vote.

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disagreements

Doria said the SRB’s poor performance in this year’s elections could lead to the disappearance of the party, which he says “would be a shame.” “At the moment it is the losing side,” he estimates. It is impossible to predict the outcome of the Toucan Nest crisis, but the party’s decline actually began in November 2021, after a group of MP Esio Neves (PSDB-MG) stepped up the process to undermine the former candidate’s pre-candidacy. Governor of São Paulo to the Planalto Palace, democratically determined in the party’s primaries.

The persistence of the Tucanato wing with the candidacy of the then governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite, ultimately made it impossible for Doria to be nominated, a member of the party that proved more viable in the elections, even because of the important work done by his government during the pandemic. “I won the primaries and did not accept them because the national executive thought that with me there would be neither the preservation nor the increase of the federal bench of the Congress,” Doria recalled, intensifying the criticism of the national president Bruno Araujo. “I was practically forced to withdraw from the dispute, and in the end, the SRB elected far fewer deputies, with a reduction of 41%,” he told ISTOE.

With the failure of the elections on the 2nd, the internal split deepened. On Tuesday, the 4th, the National Executive in Brasilia decided to release its members in order to support whoever they wish in the second round of the presidential election. The five former party chairmen decided to support Lulu, but Governor Rodrigo Garcia announced “unconditional and personal” support for Jair Bolsonaro and Tarcisio de Freitas, the presidential candidate for governor of Sao Paulo, who now faces PT Fernando Haddad in the presidential election. second round of the competition. Doria said he would not vote. Subsequently, several Tucan leaders of the old guard announced their vote for Lulu, as was the case with Fernando Henrique. “In this second round, I vote for the history of the struggle for democracy and social integration. I vote for Luis Inacio Lulu da Silva,” said the former president. Currently, the project of reconstruction of the nest of toucans.

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At least 21 politicians who were already on the radar of Operation Lava-Yato are expected to remain on the political scene in 2023.

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Eleven goals of Lava-Yato receive a parliamentary mandate. (Photo: Antonio Cruz/Agência Brasil)

At least 21 politicians who were already on the radar of Operation Lava Jato should remain in the political arena in 2023. Twelve of them were elected last Sunday to legislative and executive positions – 11 won seats in the Chamber of Deputies, while Gladson Kameli (PP) won the race for Acre’s government. Another seven remained as deputies, while six were not elected.

Esio Neves (PSDB-MG), Afonso Hamm (PP-RS), Aguinaldo Ribeiro (PP-PB), Artur Lira (PP-AL) – Acting President of the Chamber, Beto Richa (PSDB-PR) will be in the Chamber in 2023. , Joao Leao (PP-BA), Lindbergh Farias (PT-RJ), Luis Fernando Faria (PSD-MG), Mario Negromonte Jr. (PP-BA), Rosana Sarny (MDB-MA) and Vander Lube (PT-MS) .

Kaka Leao (PP-BA) and Romero Huca (MDB-RR), who were running for Senate seats, were not counted; Eduardo Cunha (PTB-SP) and Delcidio Amaral (PTB-MS), federal candidates; and Fernando Collor (PTB-AL) and Luis Carlos Heinze (PP-RS), who sued state governments. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) runs in the second round of elections in Planalto.

On the other front, the executioners of these politicians had significant voices. Associated with União Brasil, former judge Sergio Moro, who led Lava Hato at first instance, was elected senator for Paraná with 1,953,188 votes, deposing Álvaro Díaz (Podemos).

“Phoenix”

Former federal prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol (Podemos) received 344,917 votes for a seat in the Chamber of Deputies. Former task force coordinator for Lava Jato in Curitiba, he has spoken to prominent political figures such as Glazi Hoffmann of the PT (elected with 261,247 votes), Ricardo Barros of the PP (107,022 votes) and Luisa Canziani of the PSD (74,643 votes). In an interview with Estadão on Monday, Dallagnol spoke of Lava Jato’s “rebirth” like a Phoenix.

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“The operation changed the course of the global political system and the system of competition in political disputes in Brazil,” says FGV professor Marco Antonio Carvalho Teixeira. However, for him, the election of so many candidates who passed investigations indicates that the political consequences of this “were left behind.”

recall

According to Professor UniRio and Doctor of Political Science Fabio Kerche, “There are sections of society that regard Moro and Dallagnol as heroes.” He links the election of the two to the “withdrawal” of the operation, which began in 2014.

Kerche sees similarities between the developments of Lava Jato and Mãos Limpas that took place in Italy. “It was also possible to elect the prosecutors and justices of the peace who took part. They left “judicial politics” and moved on to “party politics”.