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ANALYSIS – Bolsonaro creates “stress test” for institutions with allegations of falsification of election results



President Jair Bolsonaro in Brasilia

Eduardo Simoins

SAO PAULO (Reuters) – President Jair Bolsonaro is setting a “stress test” for Brazil’s democratic institutions with his unfounded accusations against the Brazilian electoral system and is expected to continue that version until next year’s presidential elections, according to political analysts polled by Reuters in Friday. …

At the same time, the president’s persistence in this fraudulent speech shows that both Bolsonaro and the government he heads are cornered by relying on rhetoric similar to that adopted on social media Thursday night, which in practice anticipates the possible speech. electoral defeat.

“Again, he (Bolsonaro) is anticipating this electoral process, says it is possible that the electoral process might not be recognized, which is the biggest challenge a democracy can face,” said Leonardo Barreto, political scientist and director of vector analysis. … Reuters.

“It generates an institutional stress test that applies to the entire electoral process and has, in the worst case, non-recognition of the result by a candidate who can have 30% of the vote. I think this is a very important event for the stability of the Brazilian political process, ”he added.

Despite the promise that he would provide evidence of e-voting fraud in the broadcast he made on Thursday, Bolsonaro not only failed to present it – stating in all letters that he had no evidence, but “evidence” – but also resorted to to unfounded allegations of violations that have circulated in the past and have been dismissed.

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He also took the opportunity to draw a number of conclusions against the President of the Supreme Electoral Court (TSE), Luis Roberto Barroso, when he mentioned that he had contributed to the restoration of political rights by former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva and would be interested in the PT victory, in another attack. on the judicial system, which has become permanent.

According to analysts polled by Reuters, Bolsonaro is turning his batteries against the Supreme Court (STF) at a time when he has a shield in the National Congress after backing the election of Arthur Lear (PP-AL) as president of the House. deputies and placing the leader of the center, Senator Ciro Nogueiro (PP-PI), at the head of the Civil Chamber.

He also appears to be veiled before the State Ministry, which has already nominated the Senate for the reappointment of the Republic’s Attorney General Augusto Aras, who is positioning himself in favor of the President, for a new two-year term. years.

“The best price for him today is to attack Supreme,” said Insper professor and political scientist Carlos Melo. “Where does he have no protection? In the Almighty. The Supreme Court does not require impeachment, the Supreme Court does not conduct an investigation, the Supreme Court does not have the tools to respond to the President of the Republic, as does the Chamber and how the RRT … he.


Another important element pointed out by analysts of Bolsonaro’s strategy of focusing the fire on the judiciary, a power that has made several decisions contrary to the interests and wishes of the president, is to divert the attention of the richer part of Bolognaism by taking over the focus of the support he sought and received from figures criticized by him, such as parliamentarians of the center.

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“This is a cunning tactic of a certain type of politician who always has an enemy,” said Melo, who, however, believes that the armor received by Bolsonaro is far from final.

In the case of Aras, this will depend on the position the attorney general takes when he is guaranteed his second term, which may have independence from Bolsonaro’s interests after being bypassed in the selection of a vacancy at STF. As far as the members of the center are concerned, this will depend on the government’s ability to maintain the flow of funds freed up to meet the political interests of the members of the group.

“This gives Bolsonar some protection while these resources are freed up. Once you get to the bone line, the center will not remain in the bone line, ”Melo said. “There are no politicians who accompany each other to the grave and throw themselves,” he added.

At the same time, Bolsonaro’s persistent tensions with the judiciary and an attempt to question the voting system more than a year before the elections – and given the likely defeat and his attempt to hold a print vote – cast a shadow on the country’s political stability.

“It is clear that Bolsonaro will do everything he can to stay in power, including pushing the rules of the game to the limit,” Creomar de Sousa, political consultant and CEO of Dharma Politics, told Reuters. “It looks like the president would like to create a little confusion. If this turmoil leads to an election victory, so much the better. If this turmoil results in him staying in power, so much the better, ”he said.

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For Creomar, the big question is what support will be provided by members of the government of the armed forces who have made dubious statements about the observance of the rules of the democratic game in a possible episode of great instability.

“During the event, let’s see if these people will enjoy the support of those who are active? Whose side will the armed men be on? ”


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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario



The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.



The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022



Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

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