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Increased military presence in elections. What to expect in 2022

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Increased military presence in elections.  What to expect in 2022

Data from the past decade show a consolidated trend towards politicization of Brazil’s security forces. This is evidenced by a study conducted by Instituto Sou da Paz and published exclusively Nexus

Less than a year and a half before the next majority elections, they are already starting to grow care from different sectors for 2022. President Jair Bolsonaro, without presenting any evidence, claims that electronic voting machines are fraudulent and hints that he will not accept defeat if there is no printed vote. The proposal in this sense is gaining momentum in Congress, but the Electoral Court has already warned that it will not have time to make any changes for the next elections.

In this text Nexus explains the concept policeman Developed in a study by Sou da Paz, it shows an increase in the participation of security professionals in elections, especially after the 2014 elections, and presents proposals for regulating this process. He also speaks with one of the study’s authors about the impact of police-political confusion on Brazilian democracy.

“Policeman” on the rise

Su da Paz cites a growing mix of state security forces and party politics. policeman… For the institute, the phenomenon materializes in different ways, including:

  • height number of applications police and armed forces in elections
  • Popularization police profiles on platforms such as YouTube that use community activities and equipment to build awareness (and electoral potential)
  • Episodes military indisciplineas the riots that took place in Prime Minister Ceara in 2020 made the appearance of agents who were candidates for elections in October of the same year.
  • Various episodes of police repression opponents of the government Bolsonaro, highlighting the gap in the expected neutrality of security agents

“This politicization of the police, which is starting to run their service for political reasons, is a serious problem for the security of Brazilians and for the democratic system as a whole,” he said. Nexus Felippe Angeli, Advocacy Manager for Sou da Paz.

The repertoire of history shows us that it is a tragedy when the police apparatus does not observe the simple observance of the law, guided by ideologies. In Brazil, it was with DOI-Codi. [Destacamento de Operações de Informação, órgão de inteligência e repressão do governo federal durante a ditadura militar]– continued Angeli.

Participation in elections

Between 2010 and 2018, the number of agents of the security forces elected to the Chamber increased by 950%. At the moment, 42 federal deputies are representatives of power structures.

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In the 2020 municipal elections, the increase in the number of prime ministers and other security agents compared to 2016 was concentrated in the executive branch, more than doubling in the positions of mayor (515 candidates) and deputy mayors (485). In the legislature, the number of these candidates increased by only 14% (7,296).

Of all candidates in 2020, 60 deputy mayors and 681 councilors were elected, indicating stability (less than 10%) in relation to the 2016 elections in both categories. But in the position of mayor, the growth was 18%.

45

security forces candidates were elected as mayors in 2020 against 38 elected in 2016

Naturally, any segment that enters into politics begins with the Legislative, where victory is possible, in the cases of deputies, councilors, with the transfer of votes from subheadings, coalitions.– said Angeli. If successful in the legislature, the segment moves to the executive, where there is pure competition, and whoever has the most votes wins, continued.

The presence of the military in unelected positions sparked an even more dramatic boom in the Bolsonaro government, which was mainly occupied by retired officers from the first echelon. According to a TCU (Tribunal de Contas da União) poll, there were more than 6,000 active or dismissed soldiers in civilian positions associated with various ministries in mid-2020. room more than doubled than it was in 2018 in the government of Michel Temer. On the state team, there are almost a hundred soldiers.

On June 23, Bolsonaro issued a decree transforming several positions in the federal administration into “military” that are now considered “civilian” in nature. Moreover, the officers holding these positions in the future Will be released the statutory two-year deadline for return to military service or retirement.

Candidate profile

According to the Sou da Paz investigation, the vast majority of police and military candidates are men (94%), white (46%), married (72%), with an average age of 50 and a significant level of education. compared to those registered for general candidates (45% have completed higher education, while for general candidates this percentage is 24%).

As for the party-ideological profile, Angeli explains that throughout the 2010s. complete change the police who are involved in politics. In the beginning, most of the police were associated with leftist parties. Even because they were syndicalist in nature, leading wage movements such as, he said.

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Currently, security agents who are involved in politics are concentrated in the right-wing parties, with a focus on the PSL, the legend for which Bolsonaro was elected in 2018. In these cases, we see the adherence to the Pocketnarist discourse as a defense of the arms policy, the discourse A good thug is a dead thugexpanding the exclusion of illegality for police officers– said Angeli.

However, research from the Brazilian Public Safety Forum shows discrepancies between police and patents. Adherence to pocketarism is higher among the prime minister than among civilian police officers, as well as among soldiers and officers. lowest rank

Position on the political spectrum

Militias predominate in municipalities

The Su da Paz study also reveals that the presence of militias is notorious in the municipalities of Rio de Janeiro, as well as killing candidates, occupy relatively high positions in the ranking of cities with the largest number of security officials in the 2020 elections.

The highlight is that the availability of legislative seats in these municipalities is much lower than in the capitals, and even so, they are cities that have a significant body of nominations associated with the security forces:

  • Duque de caxias, at 12 positions, with 35 orders
  • Campus dos Goitakazes, at 19 positions, with 33 orders
  • magician, for 21 positions, with 30 applications
  • Sao Gonçalo, at 26 positions, with 28 applications
  • purple belford, for 34 positions, with 22 candidates

Ranking # 1 was Rio de Janeiro, the second largest electoral college in the country, with 108 nominations: 104 councilors, one mayor and three vice mayors. In second place was Manaus with 97 candidates. It was the municipality with the highest ratio of candidates to vacancies in the municipal assembly: 93 candidates vying for 41 seats.

According to Angeli, the overlap between areas where many security agent candidates are nominated and areas dominated by militias needs to be closely monitored because it is known that the militia strives to become part of the state, creating a police state and a political police.We know that in some communities, candidates cannot even join the campaign if they do not have access to the police. There are also reports that police forced people to take pictures of the ballot box to show the vote., he said.

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Regulation proposals for 2022

Currently, military police officers who decide to run for elected office can continue to work in their institutions for up to a little over two months before elections.

In the case of PMs with over 10 years of experience, there is still the advantage of calling revolving door, which consists in the possibility of returning to active service if they are not elected. In other areas of the civil service, this option does not exist.

In the study, Su da Paz acknowledges the political legitimacy of these candidates. However, the institution emphasizes the need to regulate candidacies in order to limit policeman Brazilian politics and the subsequent weakening of democracy. In this sense, the institute makes some suggestions to protect institutions from political militancy. They are:

  • Quarantine: increased time discrepancy between police action, political party membership and election candidacy
  • The end of the revolving door: prohibition of returning to the police or military service after participating in elections or belonging to parties
  • Virtual platforms: clear rules and oversight of the use of social media by the police and the military, especially when they use information or assets directly related to corporations
  • I am using two characters: strengthening the verification of the use of form and form in election campaigns, which is prohibited
  • Labor requirements: establishing institutional mechanisms to process security forces’ requests for labor to prevent an outbreak of unrest
  • Supreme Electoral Court: clarification of the information that must be filled in to register candidates (for example, a more detailed description of professions related to public safety) in order to better track the topic

Angeli argued the action is urgent and stressed that as more former security agents are elected to Congress, less window of opportunity for legislative changes governing these candidacies.

For the Brazilian military police to be disorganized, 100% of the troops must not join. If interest rates are relatively low, but several Brazilian states are in turmoil, the situation could spiral out of control.– said Angeli. And Bolsonaro, who is already promising conflicts for 2022, knows how to escalate conflicts. This is what he always does

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

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The dollar continues to reflect the political scenario

Yesterday, financial agents evaluated the opposite decision of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) regarding the so-called secret budget. In addition, a decision was made by STF Minister Gilmar Méndez to issue an injunction that would exclude the Bolsa Família from the spending cap rule, with investors trying to understand how this measure would affect the processing of the transitional PEC in the Chamber of Deputies. Oh this PEC!!!!

Since he is an exchange investor, any reading that the budget will be exceeded or become more flexible will negatively affect the exchange market, whether through the PEC or in any other way. We will continue with volatility today.

Looking beyond, the US Central Bank (Fed), although slowing down the pace of monetary tightening at its December meeting, issued a tougher-than-expected statement warning that its fight against inflation was not yet over, raising fears that rising US interest rates will push the world’s largest economy into recession.

The currency market continues to react to political news. The voting on the PEC is saved for today. It is expected that it will indeed be reviewed to open the way tomorrow for discussions on the 2023 budget.

Yesterday, the spot price closed the selling day at R$5.3103.

For today on the calendar we will have an index of consumer confidence in the eurozone. Good luck and good luck in business!!

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Andrés Sánchez consults with the Ministry of Sports, but refuses a political post.

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The former president of the Corinthians dreams of working for the CBF as a national team coordinator. He was consulted shortly after Lula’s election.

Former Corinthians president Andrés Sánchez was advised to take a position in the Ministry of Sports under the administration of Lula (PT). However, he ruled out a return to politics. dreams of taking over the coordination of CBF selectionHow do you know PURPOSE.

No formal invitation was made to the former Corinthian representative, only a consultation on a portfolio opportunity with the new federal government, which will be sworn in on January 1, 2023.

Andrés was the Federal MP for São Paulo from 2015 to 2019. At that time he was elected by the Workers’ Party. However, the football manager begs to stay in the sport, ruling out the possibility of getting involved in politics again.

Andrés Sanchez’s desire is to fill the position of CBF tackle coordinator, which should become vacant after the 2022 World Cup. Juninho Paulista fulfills this function in Brazil’s top football institution.

The former president of Corinthians was in Qatar to follow the World Cup along with other figures in Brazilian football. During his time in the country, he strengthened his ties with the top leadership of the CBF.

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The EU has reached a political agreement on limiting gas prices – 19.12.2022

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Germany sentenced Russian to life imprisonment for political murder by order of Moscow - 12/15/2021
BRUSSELS, DECEMBER 19 (ANSA). European Union countries reached a political agreement on Monday (19) to impose a natural gas price ceiling of 180 euros per megawatt hour (MWh). The main sources of income for Russia and the minimization of the use of energy as a weapon by the regime of Vladimir Putin.

The agreement was approved by a supermajority at a ministerial meeting of member states in Brussels, Belgium, after months of discussions about the best way to contain the rise in natural gas prices in the bloc caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. .

The value set by the countries is well below the proposal made by the European Commission, the EU’s executive body, in November: 275 EUR/MWh. However, the countries leading the cap campaign were in favor of an even lower limit, around 100 EUR/MWh.

Germany, always wary of price controls, voted in favor of 180 euros, while Austria and the Netherlands, also skeptical of the cap, abstained. Hungary, the most pro-Russian country in the EU, voted against.

The instrument will enter into force on 15 February, but only if natural gas prices on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange exceed 180 euros/MWh for three consecutive days. In addition, the difference compared to a number of global benchmarks should be more than 35 euros.

Italy, the EU’s biggest supporter of the ceiling, has claimed responsibility for the measure. “This is a victory for Italy, which believed and worked for us to reach this agreement,” Environment and Energy Minister Gilberto Picetto tweeted.

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“This is a victory for Italian and European citizens who demand energy security,” he added.

Currently, the gas price in Amsterdam is around 110 EUR/MWh, which is already a reflection of the agreement in Brussels – in August the figure even broke the barrier of 340 EUR/MWh.

However, Russia has already threatened to stop exports to countries that adhere to the ceiling. (ANSA).

See more news, photos and videos at www.ansabrasil.com.br.

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