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Brazilian economic recovery in second semester could be threatened by many – Economics



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Reopening Major World Economies After Worst Of Pandemic COVID-19 left behind, it was supposed to be the main topic of the markets in the second half of 2021, but the political risk and water crisis in Brazil and signaling the cancellation of monetary stimulus by The federal reserve us USA they should divert the attention of domestic investors and jeopardize growing optimism.

In the USA and EuropeProgress in vaccination against covid has led to a sharp decline in the number of new cases and deaths, which has allowed the rules of social distancing to be almost completely relaxed. In the US, indicators of economic activity were already anticipating a stronger recovery from the first quarter.

In recent weeks, the market has also begun to revise its forecasts for eurozone GDP growth this year upward, as several countries in the bloc have begun to reopen their economies, in particular the services sector, including tourism, which has been hardest hit by the pandemic.

In Brazil, immunization is finally gaining momentum. The seven-day rolling average of the first dose of vaccine against covid reached 1,426,813 on Monday. Seven days ago this figure was 1,242,303 people, and 30 days ago – only 47,297 people.

Growth projections START Brazil is improving within ten weeks by 2021, according to the latest Focus survey and is now pointing to 5.05% growth. Four weeks ago, analysts were forecasting 3.96% growth.

The big leap came after the disclosure. BigsGDP for the first quarter of this year, which grew by 1.2%, easily surpassed the market forecast for growth of 0.7%. The second wave of the pandemic had less than expected impact on economic activity.

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On the outside, the biggest threat to the performance of developing countries, including Brazil, in the second half of the year comes from the likelihood that the Fed expects the removal of monetary stimulus, the so-called “cut”. This could, for example, reduce resource flows to developing countries.

At your last meeting money-credit policyMost Fed officials are currently projecting the first US base rate hike in 2023. Previously, most expected the base rate to remain unchanged until at least 2024.

This sharper signal from the Fed was in part a reaction to the sharp acceleration inflation American. In May, the annual consumer price index in the US reached 5.0%, the largest increase since August 2008. The concern is whether this surge in inflation will be temporary or not.

According to Fabrizio Tachetto, investment director and founder of ACE Capital, the peak of inflation in the US is already behind us, and at the same time, the Fed will not be so aggressive in removing monetary stimuli. “With more weighted inflation figures, the Fed will have more time and start a ‘gradual decline’ process early next year,” Tachetto said. “This will create undue optimism in all markets and, in particular, in emerging markets.”

Discharge inflation, in fact, it will be an important topic for the market as well as for central bank Brazil, especially after the water crisis, has forced to activate thermal power plants, which have higher energy production costs.

The Tier 2 red flag, the most expensive in the system, will also go into effect in July, for the second consecutive month, and with a higher rate adjustment. As a result, many analysts began to include a greater contribution of the energy sector to the July inflation. For 2021, the inflation forecast is already at the level of 5.97%.

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But the water crisis is not the only factor that could limit optimism about the Brazilian economic recovery in the second half of the year: the implications CPI to Covid not Senategiven the accusations directly against the president Jair Bolsonaro The purchase of the Indian vaccine Covaxin promises to further exacerbate the political turmoil ahead of the 2022 presidential election. Optimism is currently prevailing with the emergence of new vaccines and the prospect of economic recovery in the second half of the year. But there are many things that could threaten this scenario.


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Find out what was shown in the political news this Friday



Find out what was shown in the political news this Friday

Politics causes change in social media behavior globo/ ephraim-filo/

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Mark Ruffalo praises Juliet for online political appeal: ‘Inspiring’ | celebrities



Mark Ruffalo praises Juliet for online political appeal: 'Inspiring' |  celebrities

Mark Ruffalo supports Juliet’s political speech on social media.Reproduction / Instagram

Published on 30.09.2022 21:01

Rio – Juliette Freire caught the attention of American actor Mark Ruffalo on social media this Friday. The former BBB used Twitter to encourage her followers to vote in this Sunday’s election and ended up receiving praise from the star known for playing the Hulk in Marvel movies.

“Women, we need to talk. Our history is marked by harassment and lawlessness, ”the singer began. “Perhaps right now you are being pressured at home, at work or elsewhere because of your choices. This Sunday, you and I have the chance to choose who we think can help us build a better future, with less hassle and more opportunity. Therefore, call your mother, take your daughter, your friend… And let’s improve Brazil together. The choice is in our hands!” he said.

A few hours later, Ruffalo commented on Paraiba’s tweet, praising Juliet’s position on the political scene. “The world is watching with great attention and appreciation as Brazilians make the courageous choice to defend their democracy and improve their lives. This is an inspiring call to courage for Brazilian women from Juliet,” the actor wrote in Portuguese. “We can do it! We’re big!” replied the BBB 21 champion.

Juliet revealed last Wednesday that she had already been invited to pursue a political career in an interview at the premiere of the new Marilia Gabriela show. “I was invited to be more involved in the political scenario, but I think where I am, I can do a lot more for society right now. I don’t see myself, I think that I would have to study a lot and devote myself, and I don’t want to do that,” said the brunette in Gabi de Frente de Novo.


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Julio Campos gathers 3,000 voters for a political event and reaffirms commitment to the people MT | VGN





As some 3,000 voters gathered in a square in Cuiaba’s Pedregal district, state candidate Julio Campos (União Brasil) confirmed on Thursday evening (September 29) the commitments he would make in practice, once elected, in the Legislative Assembly. .

Among the targeted proposals are the expansion of the State University of Mato Grosso (Unemat), the regulation of land plots, the construction of popular houses and a reception center for drug addicts.

In addition to speaking on the platform, the political icon of Mato Grosso circulated among the electorate. With the achievements made in the state, and having already held the positions of governor, senator, federal deputy, mayor and adviser to the Accounts Chamber, Julio Campos is rather “stuck”.

During the state campaign, Julio Campos advocated, for example, the expansion of Unemat through the construction of campuses in Cuiaba and Varzea Grande. He always emphasizes that Jaime Campos (UB), Julio’s brother and senator from Mato Grosso, was the one who created the institution.

“I want to bring Unemat to Cuiabá and Varzea Grande so that the people of Baixada Cuiabán have more opportunities for higher education. We know that vacancies at the Federal University and the Federal Institute of Mato Grosso alone are not enough to serve those who want to pursue higher education. And no one has the money to pay private money,” he argued.

The candidate also recalled that when he was governor, he built more than 40,000 people’s houses. “In the Assembly, I will fight for the state government to build popular houses again. For this, I will require that 25% Fethab be used. [Fundo Estadual de Transporte e Habitação] housing,” he said.

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Voters who have participated in political meetings from the candidate to the state demonstrate, for example, with applause and shouts of support for the commitments that Julio Campos defended. This indicates that the candidate is attentive to the needs of the people of Mato Grosso.

In addition to Unemat and popular housing, Julio Campos advocated, for example, the industrialization of 30% of the agribusiness in the state, the construction of a nursing home, a veterinary hospital for small and medium animals, treatment centers for drug addicts. drug addicts and a panic button on buses to prevent harassment of women.

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