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Debt write-off implies downgrade, Moody’s says, as governments lose control – O Jornal Económico

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Debt write-off implies downgrade, Moody's says, as governments lose control - O Jornal Económico

Rating agency Moody’s argues that a downgrade for countries seeking to write off debt is inevitable, because the decision to restructure is made by a committee of creditors, regardless of the government’s will with respect to individuals.

In an interview with Lusa, Marie Deeron, director of the sovereign risk analysis group at Moody’s, explained that when a country adheres to the Common Debt Management Framework besides the Debt Servicing Suspension Initiative (DSSI), it abandons the decision on which lenders will participate in restructuring, the final word rests with the creditors’ committee.

“Although the Ethiopian government was very clear about its willingness to continue to honor its obligations to private creditors and use the Common Framework only to increase liquidity, when they signed up, they agreed with a paragraph that says that all creditors will be treated equally, which means a loss control, since the decision goes to the creditors’ committee, ”explained Marie Deeron, answering the question whether it is possible to adhere to the Common Framework and not tolerate a drop in the rating.

“The decision is made by a committee of creditors, and while the government may intend to maintain financial commitments to the private sector, it is the committee that decides how to proceed with the restructuring,” said the director of Moody’s, which ceased to exist this month. rating “Ethiopia after delayed meetings with creditors.

“The rating was B2 in March, pending to downgrade and there has been no major change in the meetings since then, so we dropped to Caa1, two notches down because the committee needs time to“ Meet and agree on restructuring, this suggests that the risk of losses for private lenders has increased, ”the analyst explained.

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Regarding the inevitability of a rating downgrade after joining this method of debt restructuring, Marie Deeron said that this will not happen only if the rating is already so low that it already takes into account the likelihood of losses for creditors.

“If the rating is high, it will probably force us to update our opinion on credit quality, but if it is low, it already includes a level of uncertainty about payments to lenders,” he said.

The DSSI is an initiative launched by the G20 last April that guaranteed a moratorium on debt payments from the heavily indebted countries to more developed countries and multilateral financial institutions, with an initial deadline of December 2020, but which has been successively extended until the end of this year.

This initiative only encouraged countries to seek debt relief from the private sector, while the General Framework approved by the G20 in November argues that reaching out to private creditors is mandatory, even if it does not explicitly state what will happen if there is no agreement. between the debtor and the creditor.

Three African countries (Chad, Ethiopia and Zambia) have applied for membership in this Framework, but several analysts believe there will be more countries that will have to join due to their dire financial situation, despite opposition from countries that they will automatically downgrade their rating if they continue to restructure their private debt, which will make it difficult to access the market and finance the development of their economies.

The proposal, presented by the G20 and the Paris Club in November, is the second phase of the DSSI, launched in April and widely criticized for not requiring individuals to participate in the effort, as it will pave the way for debtor countries not to pay creditors and bilateral ( countries and multilateral financial institutions) and continue to service private debt.

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This framework aims to recruit all debt agents, including private and public banks in China, which have become the largest lenders to developing country governments, including Africans.

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Economy

segunda-feira há novo aumento dos combustíveis (o 5º este mês)

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Another week, another rise.  Fuel prices will rise again next week (in force)

Prepare-se para desembolsar mais uns euros para atestar o depósito do seu automóvel. Os preços dos combustíveis vão subir na próxima semana, ficando mais caros já a partir de segunda-feira.

“A evolução das cotações em euros aponta para um aumento dos preços em até um cêntimo por litro no gasóleo e dois cêntimos por litro na gasolina”, adiantou fonte de uma das principais petrolíferas nacionais à Multinews.

Os preços dos postos junto aos hipermercados também seguem as tendências de mercado. “A tendência da próxima semana será para uma subida de 0.0173 euros na gasolina e um aumento de 0.0094 euros no gasóleo”, avançou outra fonte.

Esta é a quinta semana consecutiva de aumentos, segundo dados da Direção Geral de Energia e Geologia (DGEG). Desde o início do ano, o preço do gasóleo já valorizou 10 cêntimos por litro enquanto o da gasolina ficou 8 cêntimos mais caro – e isto sem as atualizações da próxima semana.

Ou seja, encher um depósito de 60 litros de gasolina custa agora mais 5 euros do que na primeira semana de janeiro. Já para atestar um depósito de gasóleo são precisos mais seis euros do que há cinco semanas.

Os dados da DGEG mostram que o preço médio do litro de gasolina simples 95 em Portugal custa atualmente 1,744 euros enquanto o do gasóleo vale 1,601 euros. As cotações podem no entanto variar nos postos de abastecimento, já que o preço fixado na rede tem ainda em conta o nível de concorrência, da oferta e da procura em cada mercado eo nível de custos fixos de cada posto.

O mais recente boletim sobre combustíveis da Comissão Europeia indica que Portugal tem a oitava gasolina 95 mais cara dos 27 países da União Europeia, 8 cêntimos acima da média europeia e 26 cêntimos mais cara do que em Espanha. Já o gasóleo ocupa a 10ª posição do ranking europeu.

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A diferença de preço de Portugal face a Espanha resulta da carga fiscal, já que, sem impostos, o preço da gasolina é mais barato em terras lusas. Sem carga fiscal, cada litro de gasolina 95 em Portugal custaria 76 cêntimos, ou seja, seria mais barata do que os 78 cêntimos cobrados em Espanha.

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Economy

In which municipalities are houses more expensive? And where do they cost less?

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In which municipalities are houses more expensive?  And where do they cost less?

The average value of a bank valuation of housing in Portugal, published this Thursday by the National Statistical Institute (INE), was 1,285 euros per square meter (m2) in December, and the value was higher in the Algarve and Lisbon metropolitan area (AML). than the national average. Not surprisingly, six of the ten municipalities with the most expensive square meter are in the AML and three in the Algarve.

The median value of the bank’s valuation in December reached 1,285 euros, which is 13 euros more than in November. Compared to the same month in 2020, the rate of change was 11.2%, the same as in November.

The historical INE series since 2011 leaves no room for doubt: the residential real estate market is hot, and housing bank valuations have never been higher.

Trends in median bank valuation in Portugal

Since August 2021, the average cost of bank housing has been steadily increasing. 1285 euros per square meter, registered in December, marks a new historical high in Portugal.

If we want to see a decline in the index, we need to go back to March 2020 – the month when the first case of Covid-19 was reported in Portugal – when the median fell from 1,111 euros per m2 (in February). until 1110 (in March).

Which municipalities have the highest housing ratings?

Lisbon is by far the municipality where the banks have priced the houses with the highest average value: 3,215 euros per m2. In the capital, the difference is more than 700 euros for the municipality in second place, Oeiras (2466 euros per m2), and the difference is more than 1400 euros for the last of the 10 municipalities where houses are more expensive, Loures (1791 euros). ).

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In this “top ten”, in addition to Lisbon, Oeiras and Loures, we find three more municipalities belonging to the AML: Cascais (2,427 euros per m2), Odivelas (1,877) and Amadora (1,821).

In addition to the AML municipalities, the Algarve has three municipalities – the region with the highest average (€1731 per m2, followed by AML since 1701): Loulé (€2160), Albufeira (1956) and Lagos (€1843). ).

Outside the Algarve and the AML, only Porto is in the top 10 with an average cost of 2,116 euros per m2.

In general, in all these ten municipalities, the median value of the bank’s valuation has increased compared to November.

Which municipalities have the lowest ratings?

Seia is the municipality that registered the lowest bank valuation of houses per m2 in the country in December: 570 euros per m2. It is followed by Fundão, where a square meter was valued at 585 euros.

Most of the municipalities in the “top 10” cheapest m2, such as Seia and Fundau, belong to the central region – the region that has the second lowest median value after Alentejo (904 and 867 euros per m2, respectively). : Guarda (686), Alcanena (669), Abrantes (623) and Entroncamento (661). In fact, Guarda is the only regional center that is among the municipalities with the lowest values ​​per m2.

From the Alentejo we find Elvas and Ponte de Sor with very similar prices (741 and 740 euros per m2 respectively) and from the north we have Celorico de Basto and Lamego with 657 and 699 euros per m2 respectively.

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Compared to November, only in Elvas, Entroncamento, Abrantes and Fundão did the median increase. In Seiya, the value remained, while in Celorico de Basto and Guarda, the value fell.

In Alcanene, Lamego and Ponte de Sor it is not possible to compare with November as INE does not have data for these municipalities for that month. In Ponte de Sor and Alcanena, the last month for which data is available is August, with the value increasing in Ponte de Sor and falling in Alcanena. In Lamego, the last available value is in September, with the average value per m2 decreasing compared to that month.

When comparing Seia and Lisbon, the difference between these two municipalities, which are about 300 kilometers apart, is more than 2,600 euros per m2.

Note. Of the 308 Portuguese municipalities, 168 are missing data for December, so this analysis is based on the values ​​of only 140 municipalities.

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Economy

D. Luís vendido por mais de 45 milhões de euros – Imobiliário

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D. Luís vendido por mais de 45 milhões de euros - Imobiliário

O fundo de investimento americano Principal comprou o edifício de escritórios D. Luís, em Lisboa, por 45.25 milhões de euros.

Em menos de cinco anos este edificio valorizou cerca de 16 milhões de euros. Em maio de 2017, o D. Luís, que fica na Rua do Instituto Industrial, junto à Av. 24 de julho, foi comprado pelo Rockspring Property Investment Managers LLP, fundo de investimento sediado em Londres, por 29 milhões de euros.

Posteriormente, o Rockspring foi adquirido pelo grupo de investidores alemão Patrizia que agora alienou o edifício ao Principal Real Estate Investors, que faz parte da Principal Global Investors.

O D. Luís conta com sete andares, uma área de 10.279 m2, com lojas e espaços de lazer e 146 lugares de estacionamento e está totalmente ocupado por várias empresas. Farfetch que ocupa uma área aproximada de três mil m2 nos pisos 2 e 3 do edifício. Tambémé no D. Luís que está a funcionar a multinacional americana Sitel, ocupando três pisos e um ginásio do Fitness Hut.

Até 2015 o D. Luís foi propriedade do Millennium BCP e era ali que funcionavam os serviços de backoffice do banco, até serem transferidos para o Tagus Park, em Oeiras.

Este é o segundo investimento da Principal em Portugal que acredita assim conseguir uma melhor distribuição dos seus ativos pela Europa, sendo que o grupo de investidores americano já marca presença em oito países europeus.

Além disso, escreve em comunicado Sebastian Lietsch, director de gestão de fundos da Principal Real Estate na Alemanha, as características do edifício ea sua localização “estão em linha” com a estratégia da empresa que procura investir em mercados “que têm vindor a crescer em termos demográficos, quer em inovação ou em negócios globais”.

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Também Irina Va, gestora sénior de transações e ativos da Principal Real Estate, sublinha que a localização do D. Luís é “tradicionalmente uma zona turística e residencial”, próxima da margem do rio Tejo sendo “uma zona comercial em expansão que se tornou popular entre os ocupantes de escritórios nacionais e internacionais à procura de espaço moderno”.

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