Ten points a week to understand what is happening in Eastern Europe and what can change in the life of each of us.
1 – DEADLY ATTACK ON ODESSA CONFIRMS RUSSIAN AGGRESSION ALSO IN THE SOUTH
Two children were among the 18 killed in Russian missile attacks on Odessa. Night missile strike of the Black Sea strategic aircraft Tu-22 in the Belgorod-Dnestrovsky district of the Odessa region, three Kh-22 missiles that hit a residential building and a recreation center. Eighteen victims were identified, including two children, 31 people were hospitalized, including four children and a pregnant woman.
However, Ukrainian control of Serpent’s Island is essential to control of the Black Sea, but Russia’s loss may not be permanent.
In what remains of the battle for Donbass, Russia claims to control an oil refinery in Lysichansk. Moscow claims to have seized an oil refinery in Lisichansk; the last major city in the Lugansk region, not captured by Russian troops; offensive in four directions.
Russian troops plant mines in Lysichansk, Ukrainian regional military leader says; these mines, nicknamed “petals”, are extremely dangerous because “they can be placed anywhere, and any child or civilian who goes out in search of humanitarian assistance can step on them and be killed or injured”; The city is being bombed “constantly” day and night, added Serhiy Gaidai, governor of the Luhansk region.
2 – SHIP WITH 7,000 TONS OF GRAIN ZARPOU DE BERDYANSK, UKRAINIAN PORT CONTROLLED BY RUSSIA
This happened for the first time after the capture of the city by Moscow troops. The destination will be “friendly countries” of Russia.
In Kherson, pro-Russian forces that have illegally occupied the territory are preparing a referendum on unification with Russia. Kirill Stremousov, one of the leaders of the pro-Russian government in Kherson, told Reuters that no date has yet been set for the popular vote, but he expects the referendum to take place “next semester.”
3. CHINA CONSIDERS NATO EXPANSION ‘CAUSE’ OF WAR
China points out that the war is a consequence of NATO expansion. Beijing has taken to the UN that Russian aggression in Ukraine stems from NATO expansion into Eastern Europe, and criticizes NATO for a “Cold War mentality” and accuses the G7 of “sowing discord.”
Thanks to these positions, cooperation between the US, South Korea and Japan is deepening, which may indicate an “Asian version of NATO.”
However, China is “not providing material support” to the Russian invasion, a senior US official said.
4 – UN TALKS TO 16 MILLION UKRAINIANS AT HUMANITARIAN RISK
Nearly half of Ukraine’s population is in need of humanitarian assistance – water, food, medical care, shelter and protection (the real number is likely even higher). Sixteen million Ukrainians are at humanitarian risk, and another 5.3 million have fled the country. Perhaps this helps us explain another fact: 89% of Ukrainians reject ceding territory in exchange for peace through negotiations with Russia; 53% believe that the Ukrainian army will push the Russians out of the occupied territories (Wall Street Journal poll).
Russia uses ineffective missiles from former Soviet arsenals in more than 50% of its attacks on Ukraine; this leads to significant loss of life; Over the past two weeks, Russian attacks in Ukraine have more than doubled.
5 – PUTIN STILL WANTS “ALmost ALL UKRAINE”
Putin maintains goal of controlling “most of Ukraine,” says a senior US intelligence official: “We remain in a position where we look at President Putin and think that he has essentially the same political goals,” Avril said. Haynes, Director of National Intelligence and former Deputy National Security Adviser during the Obama presidency.
US agencies predict three conflict scenarios in the near future. The possibility of a major Russian offensive or Ukrainian stabilization of the front line are two of the hypotheses under consideration. But the alternative they see as the most likely is a “crushing” conflict in which Russian forces are making only escalating gains but no progress towards Putin’s goal.
6. BORIS JOHNSON WARNS RUSSIA’S VICTORY WILL BE “TOTALLY CATASTROPHIC”
Boris Johnson points to the point: “Helping Ukraine is what America has historically done and should do, and it strengthens peace, freedom, and democracy; and if we allow Putin to get away with simply annexing, conquering large parts of a free, independent and sovereign country, which he is about to do… then the consequences for the world will be absolutely disastrous.”
The position of her head of diplomacy is very similar: “It is absolutely necessary that we guarantee the defeat of Russia in Ukraine,” notes Liz Truss. “My message is very strong: first we must defeat Russia, and then negotiate. And this is necessary in the name of European security, freedom and democracy. This is the only way to achieve lasting peace in Europe. Negotiating while Russian troops are still in Ukraine will lead to a false peace and will lead to more aggression in the future. We must learn from the past, such as the failures of the Minsk Protocol, to ensure a lasting peace.”
7. JOHNSON POSTED ON MACRON
Before the G-7, the British Prime Minister warned the French President against the temptation to negotiate a settlement in Ukraine, risking prolonging “global instability”.
The entire dominant track record at the G7 and the NATO summit reinforced the British vision, and even more so the French one: unconditional support for Ukraine was in place, and the space for “giving in” to Putin was further reduced.
8 – G7 WANTS TO MOBILIZE MORE THAN EUR 550 MILLION TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
In response to huge Chinese-funded projects, the G7 decided at a meeting in Germany to allocate $600 billion through 2027 for global infrastructure investment. Regarding G7 investments in the global infrastructure program, the President of the European Commission announced that Europe will provide 300 billion euros.
9 – CANADA STRENGTHENS BALTIC DEFENSES
Canada has sent two warships to the Baltic Sea and the North Atlantic, joining a pair of frigates already in the region in an attempt to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank.
The Canadian ships Kingston and Summerside will embark on a four-month mission as part of “containment measures in Central and Eastern Europe” launched in 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Until October, the ships will participate in a maritime mine-clearing exercise that will maintain a “high readiness” that will allow them to “respond quickly and effectively in support of any NATO operations.” HMCS Halifax and Montreal are due to return to port in July from Operation Reassurance, which is currently Canada’s largest overseas deployment.
The mission also includes about 700 Canadian soldiers in Latvia with artillery and electronic equipment, as well as various military aircraft.
10 – “WE HOPE ALL RUSSIAN MOTHERS FEEL THE SAME LIKE WE”
This is one of the most resonant phrases in this week’s analysis of Russia’s war in Ukraine. Who said that this is the mother of a girl who worked in a shopping center in Kremenchuk and went missing after a criminal Russian shelling with two rockets.
“We hope that all Russian mothers will feel the same as we do.” Pedro Miguel Costa and Odasir Junior spoke about this in the report.