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Why an approved coronavirus vaccine can’t quickly end the pandemic

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Why an approved coronavirus vaccine can't quickly end the pandemic

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has warned you.

In May, when the electric car’s stock was less than half its current value (adjusted for the split), Musk tweeted that his company was overvalued. Investors finally shared that view on Tuesday when the stock fell 21%, the worst drop in history since the S&P Dow Jones indices stopped Tesla TSLA.
-21.06%
to the S&P 500 index.

Since September 2, the worst members of the Nasdaq-100 have been Tesla, the electronic signature provider of DocuSign DOCU.
-4.91%,
semiconductor manufacturing company KLA KLAC,
-9.77%,
Zoom Video Communications ZM,
-5.13%,
and computer games company Nvidia NVDA,
-5.62%
– All, except for the UAC, this year have risen in price at least twice.

While the timing may have been unexpected, the actual drop can be explained as an adjustment for irrational exuberance, particularly for the tech sector.

Read also: Best of luck, stocks have performed well after similar Nasdaq adjustments.

But one of the reasons for the bump in the market, at least until September, was the work of several companies on a coronavirus vaccine. Evercore ISI held a teleconference on this topic and the findings were sobering.

Speaking to the news that AstraZeneca has suspended COVID-19 trials due to illness, analyst Josh Shimmer noted that for most vaccines, pharmaceutical companies agree to lower levels of immunity in exchange for better tolerance. Now, he says, companies are promoting the protective profile for maximum effect, knowing that it could have more side effects. In his opinion, the likelihood that the first vaccines will work well is greater than 50/50, which he defined as a 90% reduction in event rates or a significant benefit in severe cases.

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AstraZeneca AZN,
-1.39%,
along with vaccines created by Pfizer PFE,
-1.18%
/ BioNTech BNTX,
+ 2.15%
cooperation with Moderna MRNA,
-13.19%,
were considered the most likely to complete the final stage of the trial by October. Novawax NVAX,
-8.20%
The vaccine, which many investors consider their favorite, is expected to complete phase 3 in December, according to Schimmer.

But the next most likely scenario is that they work, but not very well, as a flu vaccine, in which case the impact on mitigating the pandemic will be limited. “I don’t know if the COVID vaccine will quickly get us out of this mess with a 60% effectiveness,” he said. (Minimum efficiency 50%.). In this scenario, the hope is that the second wave of vaccines will work better, “swap out vaccinated horses halfway if better ones come out.”

He added that the likelihood that vaccines do not work, worsen the infection, or have problematic side effects is less likely.

More positively, analyst Vijay Kumar said the recently approved rapid antigen tests at the point of care will be helpful in rebuilding the economy and alleviating testing restrictions. He said that by the first half of next year, anyone will be able to get tested.

Buzz

AstraZeneca AZN,
+ 2.10%
said it “voluntarily suspend vaccinations to allow an independent committee to review the safety data, “And called the pause” routine. ” The New York Times reported that a volunteer in a UK trial was diagnosed with transverse myelitis, an inflammatory syndrome that affects the spinal cord and is often caused by viral infections.

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LVMH Moet Hennessy MC,
-1.10%
said it would not be able to complete the previously announced $ 16.2 billion takeover of Tiffany TIF,
+ 0.01%
which led to a sharp decline in the US luxury retailer’s premarket inventory and prompted a lawsuit to enforce the deal.

Weak WORK,
+ 0.86%
there may be pressure after office communications software maker exceeded analysts’ expectations in terms of revenue and prospectsbut not as much as Zoom Video Communications.

Sportswear manufacturer Lululemon Athletica LULU,
-3.21%
reported above-forecast profit and loss.

This is a pretty calm day for the economy, as evidenced by the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision and job vacancies in the US.

Former Vice President Joe Biden has proposed a new tax penalty for offshoring, as well as a proposal to double the minimum tax on foreign income.

Score

After the 4.1% crash for the Nasdaq Composite COMP,
-4.11%
and a 2.8% drop for the S&P 500, ES00 futures share,
+ 0.92%
pointed to a more optimistic start, especially for the Nasdaq-100 NQ00,
+ 1.69%

Crude oil CL.1,
+ 1.87%
futures rose and gold fell.

Yield on 10-year Treasury bonds TMUBMUSD10Y,
0.691%
rose to 0.69%.

Schedule

Citi reports that the decline in social distancing in the global economy has continued for two weeks since late August. Global mobility improved to -14.4% from -16.5% and to -17.4% in the US after a two-month fluctuation of around -19%.

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Economy

The UK is preparing for electricity and gas to run out next winter. Worst-case scenario points to 4-day blackouts

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The UK is preparing for electricity and gas to run out next winter.  Worst-case scenario points to 4-day blackouts

Summer is still on, but winter is fast approaching, and European countries are making contingency plans to avoid running out of energy while Russia cuts back on the amount of gas it sends to Europe.

Based on a “reasonable worst-case scenario”, the British government is already gearing up for several days of the winter months when the cold could combine with gas shortages, causing “power outages” across the country, reaching industry and homes. .

Unidentified sources tell Bloomberg that London’s forecast is that the electricity grid will only be able to guarantee a sixth of the power during peak demand, after the government presented contingency plans to reopen coal-fired power plants. .

The worst-case scenario assumes that the United Kingdom will suffer blackouts for four days in January 2023 and that it will have to activate measures to reduce gas consumption at a time when gas supplies from Norway and France are also reduced. , while every country tries to secure its supplies for the coldest months of the year.

However, the British government believes that the worst scenario may not materialize, but does not rule out the possibility that, in the end, it will come true.

Bloomberg notes that this problem should be dealt with by whoever succeeds outgoing Prime Minister Boris Johnson next September. In a worst-case scenario, Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak will have an energy and social crisis on their hands, as the British public has expressed great dissatisfaction with a significant increase in the cost of energy, which could double in the face of rising inflation. and reduced purchasing power.

See also  Diesel at gas stations is 6 cents more expensive than its "effective price", gasoline is 2 cents more expensive, ERSE denounces.

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Economy

In Russia began to dismantle aircraft for spare parts – Aviation

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In Russia began to dismantle aircraft for spare parts - Aviation

Russian airlines, including state-owned Aeroflot, are stripping planes to secure spare parts they can’t buy abroad due to Western sanctions, Reuters reported, citing four industry sources.

The companies are following Moscow’s guidance in June and are reaching out to some aircraft to get the parts they need to keep the rest of the fleet operational until at least 2025.

A source told Reuters that at least one Sukhoi Superjet 100 and one Aeroflot Airbus A350 are being dismantled, with the Airbus jet being “almost new”.

But the state-owned company has also stripped parts from some Boeing 737s and Airbus A320s to keep other planes of the same model flying.

Almost 80% of Aeroflot’s fleet is owned by the two largest aircraft manufacturers – 134 Boeing and 146 Airbus aircraft, and about 80 aircraft – Russian-made Sukhoi Superjet-100, which, according to the latest data, use many foreign-made parts, Reuters notes.

It will also be difficult for Moscow to buy parts from countries that have not imposed sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine. Asian and Middle Eastern airlines fear “secondary sanctions” from the West if they supply equipment, a source told the agency.

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Economy

After all, how much lower fuel prices? See accounts here

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After all, how much lower fuel prices?  See accounts here

Ethis week started with lower fuel prices, which was found for both diesel and gasoline. The fall averaged seven cents, slightly below forecast.

Average price for simple diesel fuel fell in price to 1746 euros per liter (€/litre) on Monday, August 8, compared to 1816 euro/litre on Sunday. it discount seven cents.

Me and simple gasoline 95 cost, on average, €1805/liter on Monday, minus 7.3 cents than the 1,878 euros per liter registered the day before, according to data released by the Directorate General for Energy and Geology (DGEG).

With proven descent on plain petrol 95the price of this component returns to pre-war levels in Ukraine. Let me remind you that on February 23, the average price of regular gasoline 95 was 1816 euros / liter. On the same day of the invasion, plain gasoline 95 also cost €1,816 per litre, compared to the current €1,805 per litre..

Dynamics of fuel prices since the beginning of the war© DGEG website reproduction

The average price at gas stations for the week from 1 to 7 August in the case of gasoline was 0.9 cents higher than the ERSE weekly average price and 0.1 cents lower for diesel.. The information is contained in the Weekly Report on Supervision of Sales Prices to the Public, posted on Monday Energy Services Regulatory Authority (ERSE).

“Regarding the previous week, it was found that the average selling price for the public, announced on the porticos and published in the Balcão Único da Energia, was 0.9 cents per litre. [cêntimos/litro] higher than this week’s effective price for plain gasoline 95 and 0.1 cents/liter lower for plain diesel.”

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Thus, according to ERSE, “in percentage terms, plain 95 gasoline was declared on taps 0.5% above the effective price, and ordinary diesel fuel was declared 0.1% below the effective price.”

Read also: Fuel is cheaper today (and could return to pre-war prices)

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