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The outlook for the world’s leading economies is improving, according to the OECD.

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The outlook for the world's leading economies is improving, according to the OECD.

In a report released Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development updated its forecast for global economic production this year, noting that while the decline is still “unprecedented in recent history,” the forecast has improved slightly since June.

The Paris agency said it now expects the global economy to contract 4.5% in 2020 and then grow 5% in 2021. Earlier, the OECD stated that, in its opinion, the world economy contract for 6% this year and will grow by 5.2% next year.

But the agency, which represents the world’s largest economies, warned that serious divergences were hidden behind the headlines. While the OECD significantly raised its forecasts for 2020 for the United States and China and slightly improved the outlook for Europe, the OECD lowered its expectations for developing countries such as Mexico, Argentina, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Saudi Arabia.

OECD economists said the downgrade reflects “a prolonged spread of the virus, high levels of poverty and informality, and stricter containment measures over the long term.”

China is the only country in the G20 with production projected to grow in 2020, with its economy growing 1.8%, compared to a 3.8% contraction in the US and a 7.9% decline among 19 countries using the euro. Beijing reported on Tuesday that retail sales were higher in August than last year – sales rose for the first time in 2020.

The OECD noted the earlier timing of the outbreak in the country and its ability to quickly bring it under control, as well as policies that paved the way for a rapid recovery in activity, citing, in particular, significant investment in infrastructure.

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Meanwhile, according to the OECD, this year the South African economy may contract by 11.5%. The economies of Mexico and India are on track to contract 10.2%. This is worse than forecasts for in developed countries, with the exception of Italy, which, due to the strong impact of the virus, will decrease by 10.5%.

“Uncertainty Remains High”

The OECD has warned that its prospects are far from final, and much depends on the trajectory of the Covid-19 infection and the continued support from politicians. He added that the global economic recovery “lost some momentum in the summer months” after an initial surge in activity.

“There is now a recovery from the relaxation of stringent restrictions and resumption of activities, but uncertainty remains high and confidence is still fragile,” the agency said in a report.

Some of his assessments also depend on political assumptions that may not be true.

The OECD assumes, for example, that the UK will reach a “core” free trade agreement with the European Union. But negotiations can be crushed on a controversial bill, introduced by the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which would violate the terms of a previously concluded divorce agreement.

The agency expects the UK economy to contract 10.1% this year, slightly better than its latest estimate.

The OECD also expects US lawmakers to approve another stimulus package worth up to $ 1.5 trillion this fall, although negotiations have stalled. As the November elections approach, reaching agreement may be more difficult.

The group’s forecasts for a global economic recovery in 2021 are slightly lower than in June. OECD economists have made it clear that they see a long way ahead.

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“In most countries, production at the end of 2021 is projected to remain lower than at the end of 2019 and significantly lower than projected before the pandemic, highlighting the risk of long-term costs associated with a pandemic,” the report said.

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Politics

Julio Campos gathers 3,000 voters for a political event and reaffirms commitment to the people MT | VGN

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As some 3,000 voters gathered in a square in Cuiaba’s Pedregal district, state candidate Julio Campos (União Brasil) confirmed on Thursday evening (September 29) the commitments he would make in practice, once elected, in the Legislative Assembly. .

Among the targeted proposals are the expansion of the State University of Mato Grosso (Unemat), the regulation of land plots, the construction of popular houses and a reception center for drug addicts.

In addition to speaking on the platform, the political icon of Mato Grosso circulated among the electorate. With the achievements made in the state, and having already held the positions of governor, senator, federal deputy, mayor and adviser to the Accounts Chamber, Julio Campos is rather “stuck”.

During the state campaign, Julio Campos advocated, for example, the expansion of Unemat through the construction of campuses in Cuiaba and Varzea Grande. He always emphasizes that Jaime Campos (UB), Julio’s brother and senator from Mato Grosso, was the one who created the institution.

“I want to bring Unemat to Cuiabá and Varzea Grande so that the people of Baixada Cuiabán have more opportunities for higher education. We know that vacancies at the Federal University and the Federal Institute of Mato Grosso alone are not enough to serve those who want to pursue higher education. And no one has the money to pay private money,” he argued.

The candidate also recalled that when he was governor, he built more than 40,000 people’s houses. “In the Assembly, I will fight for the state government to build popular houses again. For this, I will require that 25% Fethab be used. [Fundo Estadual de Transporte e Habitação] housing,” he said.

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Voters who have participated in political meetings from the candidate to the state demonstrate, for example, with applause and shouts of support for the commitments that Julio Campos defended. This indicates that the candidate is attentive to the needs of the people of Mato Grosso.

In addition to Unemat and popular housing, Julio Campos advocated, for example, the industrialization of 30% of the agribusiness in the state, the construction of a nursing home, a veterinary hospital for small and medium animals, treatment centers for drug addicts. drug addicts and a panic button on buses to prevent harassment of women.

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Politics

Claudia’s political manifesto

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Claudia's political manifesto