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Is 2016 first? Investors Ready for Big Market Movements with US Elections Approaching

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Is 2016 first?  Investors Ready for Big Market Movements with US Elections Approaching

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Market volatility is back – and investors anticipate further sharp fluctuations in the coming weeks and months as the US presidential election approaches.

PHOTO: BGC Partners traders look at screens after Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election in London, UK, November 9, 2016 REUTERS / Toby Melville

Some observers say that regardless of who wins the November 3 elections, markets are likely to become more turbulent. The economic uncertainty caused by the coronavirus pandemic continues to threaten, and the possibility of a delayed count of votes due to the large number of ballots sent by mail has also worried some investors. What’s more, the build-up in large technology-related stocks increased risk, as evidenced by the sharp sell-off in the market on Thursday.

“It’s just a situation where the conditions are in place for extraordinary profits,” due to volatility, said James MacDonald, executive director of Los Angeles-based hedge fund Hercules Investments.

The Cboe Volatility Index has risen over the past two weeks, with investors chasing further gains in US stocks using call options, and then looking for protection from the indices plunge at record highs. On Thursday, the VIX jumped to its highest level in nearly 10 weeks, as the S&P 500 .SPX fell 3.5%.

Some investors say the VIX could rally further as the election approaches, especially given that some indicators are showing a tightening race. In betting markets, Democratic candidate Joe Biden’s advantage over President Donald Trump has narrowed significantly, according to RealClearPolitics.

Indeed, the VXc2 second month Cboe Volatility Index futures, which will expire at the end of October, indicate expectations of more significant market moves during the election period. The gap between second month futures and the VIX widened to a record high earlier this week.

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GRAPHIC: Positioning for US election volatility – Here

REPEATING HISTORY?

Recent history shows that election results can have a profound effect on asset prices.

Basically, Trump’s surprise victory triggered sharp swings in the markets on election night 2016, when gold, Mexican peso, and equity futures among assets swung sharply.

Earlier in the year, the British pound GBP = fell to its lowest level against the dollar = US dollar in decades after the UK voted to leave the European Union.

A protracted tally of mailed newsletters could be one of the key catalysts for instability this time around, said Arnim Holzer, EAB Investment Group’s macro and correlation defense strategist.

“The volatility can actually last … longer because of the nature of the electoral process itself, regardless of who wins,” Holzer said.

McDonald, meanwhile, bought December and June calls on the ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY.P), which also grows along with volatility.

He said he had already profited from Thursday’s volatility spike that pushed UVXY up 20% to $ 28.90, and he expects the ETF to rise to $ 40 by the end of the year. By actively trading UVXY as it grows, McDonald believes he can make a $ 1 billion return on his $ 55 million investment. However, if UVXY falls below $ 10 towards the end of the year, MacDonald will lose his remaining December options investment.

The strategy could pay off, said Henry Schwartz, head of product analytics at Cboe Global Markets, but even with election fears, further spikes in volatility are not inevitable.

Other investors have added hedging to their portfolios. Matt Thompson, managing partner of Chicago-based options firm Thompson Capital Management, has long positions in both US stocks and VIX-linked assets such as Barclays iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX.P). He expects the VIX to rise in the weeks leading up to the election, as it did in 2016.

PHOTO: Road sign in front of the New York Stock Exchange on Wall Street in New York, February 10, 2009 REUTERS / Eric Thayer

Holding assets associated with the VIX for an extended period can be unprofitable given that the index tends to return to its long-term average rather than rising steadily.

But the recent simultaneous rallies in the VIX along with US stocks have made such positions profitable, Thompson said, and he expects them to maintain gains as the election approaches.

“Right now, this is a great scenario for people who are hedging,” he said.

Reporting by April Joyner; Editing by Megan Davis, Ira Iosebashvili and Lisa Shumaker

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Economy

Portugal Could Become a Reshoring Hub in Europe According to New Report – Executive Digest

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Portugal Could Become a Reshoring Hub in Europe According to New Report - Executive Digest

European companies are looking in the EMEA region (which covers Europe, the Middle East and Africa) for an alternative to manufacturing and sourcing in Ukraine and Asia after months of supply chain disruptions, according to a new Supply Chain Disruptions report sponsored by JLL.

According to this report, there are several companies operating in the retail and manufacturing sectors that have already decided to partially or completely redistribute their production, and the data shows that the new European beneficiaries of the “reorientation” are Central Europe and Romania, and the European borders with Turkey and Morocco are also on the radar.

This trend follows a pandemic that has caused disruption in distribution networks and serious problems in ports and airports, so companies have begun to choose “reshoring” as an attempt to solve the problem of disruption in supply chains.

JLL also expects that the shortage of land and labor will boost demand in Central Europe, from the primary market to the secondary and tertiary markets, the latter strategically located.

Data from Flexport (a global logistics platform) shows that the average container flight from Asia to Europe has almost doubled since 2019, and Buck Consultants International (BCI) research confirms the same as JLL: more than 60% of US and European companies plan to send part of their products back to their country of origin.

Given the existing transport networks and logistics gateways, it can be said that goods will circulate primarily along two distribution corridors: the traditional European dorsal (from central England to northern Italy) and the emerging “Black Sea banana” connecting Budapest. to the Black Sea.

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Marlene Tavares, Head of Retail Investment and Logistics at JLL, explains: “The discussion about nearshoring (where operations move to a country close to the country of origin, as opposed to offshoring) is not new. Rising wages in places with low-cost production and increased risk from climate change, strikes and accidents such as the blockade of the Suez Canal have sparked controversy over the issue over the past decade.

However, a more favorable cost-risk ratio and the loss of many manufacturing infrastructures in Europe continued to give the Asian continent an advantage in hosting large distribution centers and manufacturing a wide range of products. This scenario is now changing due to the recent situation as well as new consumption habits. In this context, Portugal has a competitive advantage due to its very attractive geographic location and demographics, which place us prominently in the European Neighborhood Strategy,” he emphasizes.

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Emirates increases total number of huge Airbus A380 flights to London to no less than 9

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Emirates increases total number of huge Airbus A380 flights to London to no less than 9


Airbus A380 – Image: Emirates


Emirates announces this Monday, December 5th that it has stepped up its operations at Gatwick Airport, one of the terminals serving London, England, by adding a third daily flight on a large Airbus A380 double-decker aircraft.

The additional operation will offer more than 1,000 seats on the Dubai-Gatwick line every day of the week. Emirates flight EK11 departs Dubai at 02:50, flight EK15 at 07:40 and flight EK09 at 14:25.

In addition to the company’s services at Heathrow Airport, which has six A380s a day, the connection between Dubai and London now has an incredible 9 flights a day on the world’s largest passenger transport aircraft.

Emirates currently serves the UK with 119 weekly flights from seven hubs, including: London Heathrow Airport (A380) six times a day; three times a day to London Gatwick (A380); daily service to London Stansted (B777); three times a day to Manchester (A380); dual daily service to Birmingham (B777); daily flights to Newcastle (B777); and a daily service to Glasgow (B777).

According to Emirates






With a degree in mechanical engineering and postgraduate studies in aircraft maintenance, he has more than 6 years of experience in the field of technical control of aircraft maintenance.


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Economy

Socrates, Granadeiro and Bava demand compensation for bad faith litigation from Espírito Santo International

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José Socrates, Enrique Granadeiro and Zeynal Bava are demanding compensation for what is left of the assets of Espírito Santo International (ESI). The Central Civil Court of Lisbon, in which three defendants and five defendants, including Ricardo Salgado, are suspected of causing more than 72 million euros in damage to the GES universe.

Challenging this charge, in addition to a plea of ​​not guilty, the three are asking the court to sentence the insolvent property complex “to pay compensation for the recovery of all costs and restitution for all losses caused by this form of litigation,” the defense stressed. former Prime Minister of the Socialists.

The bankruptcy filing states that since at least 2007, the defendants have been paid “large sums” that turned out to be “illegal and unreasonable counterparties” in defense of the interests of GES, “namely, in the strategy laid out by Ricardo Salgado in defense of the interests of the group in PT ”, but also in the mission to “put an end to the participation of the PT group in the share capital of the operator VIVO” – Luxembourg masters Alain Rukavina and Paul Laplum, managers of insolvent property and authors The process said that this money was transferred “to the detriment of the assets” of ESI and the Group’s offshore companies HPS.

As for the administrators of insolvent property, Granadeiro and Bava were to be paid “for their work contrary to their professional duties and interests of the PT in their positions of authority”, and Socrates, as prime minister, would receive money from the government. Espírito Santo Group “to act in accordance with the strategies identified by Ricardo Salgado for PT to the detriment of the public interest.”

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