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Market timing when ‘clocks have no hands’ — Warren Buffett’s warning is as appropriate now as it was in 2000

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Market timing when ‘clocks have no hands’ — Warren Buffett’s warning is as relevant now as it was in 2000


‘They know that overstaying the festivities — that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the income they are possible to deliver in the long term — will finally deliver on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless loathe to skip a one moment of what is a single helluva get together. Therefore, the giddy individuals all system to depart just seconds prior to midnight. There’s a issue, even though: They are dancing in a home in which the clocks have no fingers.’

That’s a estimate from Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders way again in 2000, but it resurfaced on Reddit on Sunday, with buyers evaluating it to the present-day inventory current market atmosphere.

At the time, the Berkshire Hathaway
BRK.B,
+.63%
chairman was evaluating those cashing in through the frenzy of the dot-com bubble to Cinderella at the ball.

“The line separating investment and speculation, which is in no way dazzling and distinct, turns into blurred continue to additional when most industry participants have just lately liked triumphs,” Buffett wrote in the letter. “Nothing sedates rationality like significant doses of easy income.”

Today’s investor knows a issue or two about easy income, as the disconnect amongst the sector highs and the fact of the devastated economic climate has hardly ever been much more pronounced, many thanks in massive aspect to the Federal Reserve’s motivation to pumping cash into the technique.

Buffett’s fairy-tale quotation isn’t the only issue harkening again to individuals heady tech times. The “Buffett Indicator,” which can take the Wilshire 5000 Index and divides it by the once-a-year U.S. GDP, recently touched its maximum stage given that proper prior to the 2000 bubble popped.

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Here’s what that chart seems to be like:

“What does that indicate for us? It implies stay extensive shares in for a longer time-dated accounts, and make absolutely sure you very own property (these as a home, and many others.),” Sevens Report Research founder Tom Essay a short while ago explained to Yahoo Finance. “But it also indicates this asset inflation cycle better not quit, since… if asset inflation stops, it’s a extended, long way down to fundamental aid.”

Meanwhile, the “giddy participants” hold dancing, with shares searching to increase Friday’s gains. At last look at, futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Normal
YM00,
+.30%
, Nasdaq Composite
NQ00,
+.35%
and S&P 500
ES00,
+.27%
ended up all pointing to a beneficial start to the week.

And if you are hunting for symptoms of bubble behavior between traders, look no more than Reddit’s jayjay16022, who provided this acquire in the comment’s part less than the Buffett estimate:

“I can’t aid but come to feel like we stay in periods when the outdated regulations don’t utilize any extended. It is not just Tesla
TSLA,
+2.40%
. Apple
AAPL,
+5.15%
is worthy of practically 10 situations its revenue. Identical goes for Alphabet
AAPL,
+5.15%
and many other NASDAQ
COMP,
+.41%
corporations,” he wrote in his Reddit put up. “Is this seriously just a different large bubble, or is this the New Age fueled by very low fascination costs and significant bond obtaining by the FED? Only time will tell.”

So, is it actually various this time?

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Economy

Sonae increases profit to 42 million and breaks sales record until March – Empresas

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Sonae increases profit to 42 million and breaks sales record until March - Empresas

Despite a loss of 59 million euros in the first quarter of 2020 and a profit of only one million euros in the same period last year, the Sonae group closed its accounts before March with a net result of 42 million euros, year on year. year EBITDA increased by 17.2% to 149 million euros.

Sales rose 5.1% to a record €1.69 billion, with MC (Continente)’s business accounting for almost €1.3 billion, up 3.8% on the first three months of last year.

“The start of 2022 has been very good for Sonae. Our businesses have continued to perform well in their respective markets and the group has maintained a robust growth trajectory with higher levels of profitability, resulting in a higher portfolio valuation,” says Claudia. Azevedo, CEO of Sonae, in a message accompanying the 2022 Q1 earnings presentation released this Wednesday, May 18, to the Securities Markets Commission (CMVM).

Claudia Azevedo also highlights numbers reflecting a robust capital structure with leverage ratios and comfortable liquidity levels: “Our consolidated results, together with portfolio management activities, generated €627 million in ‘free cash flow’ over the last 12 months, allowing for a significant reduction in net debt of approximately for 600 million euros,” he says.

Strictly speaking, the reduction in net debt over the past year amounted to 588 million euros, of which 368 million were between January and March 2022.

At the same time, in the first three months of this year, it invested 110 million euros in acquisitions.

“These results were achieved under very difficult conditions, marked by the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” notes Claudia Azevedo, noting that “despite the fact that Sonae was not subjected to direct and material contact with these countries,” the group’s business “already felt indirect consequences of the conflict, namely through rising energy prices, widespread inflation and restrictions in supply chains, having managed to overcome these problems,” he concludes.

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However, “regardless of how the global economy and financial markets develop, with our business group, strong financial position and the competence of our teams, we are well positioned to navigate through this cycle of uncertainty, continue to strengthen our competitive position and take advantage of the opportunities presented,” — says the CEO of the group based in Maya.

Fashion up, wear down, Sierra triples profits

In terms of business units, beyond the giant MC, which Sonae says “continues to gain market share,” the focus is on the fashion business, where he explores brands like MO, Salsa, and Zippy, “with Zeitreel able to get back up to sales in the first quarter of 2019, after two very difficult years for the fashion industry affected by the restrictions of the pandemic”, ending the first three months of 2022 with sales of 96 million euros, an increase of 57% compared to last year.

In the sports business, sales of ISRG (Iberian Sports Retail Group), Sonae’s joint venture with JD Sports, which owns the SportZone brand, rose 66% to €366m, with online channel share up 15.7% to 21.1% into circulation, “largely due to the acquisition of Deporvillage,” Sonae admits.

Wortena, after two years of strong growth in a row, “the electronics market in Portugal contracted in the first quarter of 2022, mainly due to the pandemic in the first quarter of 2021, which markedly improved the online channel and increased sales of computer products.” . In addition, a “less severe winter” has passed, which “limited the search to seasonal categories”.

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“This unfavorable context for the electronics market and the reorganization of the supply in the Spanish mainland contributed to the reduction in turnover. [da Worten] from 4.1% to 261 million euros in the first quarter of 2022,” says Sonae.

At Sierra, which represents the group’s real estate business, especially shopping malls, “there were positive signs of recovery in early 2022”, net income tripled to 9.8 million euros, while asset valuation increased by 5.1% to 972 million euros. which further emphasizes this tenant. sales are up over 90% year on year.

In financial services, Universe’s output increased by 23% to €257 million, gaining “96k new customers compared to the first quarter of 2021, reaching around 989k at the end of the first quarter of 2022,” he said. assures.

As of March, Nos recorded a turnover of 373 million euros, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.6%, driven by the media and entertainment segments (over 71.1%) and telecommunications (9%), “with a positive contribution from the impact of mobile subscriptions, B2B service solutions and roaming revenues through fewer travel restrictions,” explains Sonae. Profit increased by 35% to 41 million euros compared to the first quarter of last year.

Finally, Bright Pixel (formerly Sonae IM) “continues to actively manage her portfolio” by adding several sells (she left Safetypay and ciValue) and buys (she joined Experify and Hackuity) and took part in the €35 Cybersixgill promotion. millionth round of funding.

“At the end of the first quarter of 2022, the capital invested in the active portfolio reached 159 million euros, and the net asset value was 378 million euros,” Sonae concludes regarding the performance of its technology investment division for the first three months. this year.

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However, following the end of the quarter, Bright Pixel agreed with Thales Europe to sell all share capital and voting rights to Maxive, the holding company that includes S21sec and Excellium.

“The transaction has an underlying ‘corporate value’ of Maxive of €120 million and is estimated to have a positive impact on Sonaecom’s consolidated results of around €63 million,” Sonae clarifies.

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Economy

The number of fake accounts threatens Musk’s Twitter purchase

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The number of fake accounts threatens Musk's Twitter purchase

Billionaire Elon Musk, who has vowed to eliminate “spambots” from Twitter, has claimed through the social network that there may be more such automated accounts than expected, rendering the purchase agreement unfeasible.

The recent turn by the world’s richest man to buy the social network was controversial and, according to some analysts, pointless, short of trying to drive down the cost of Twitter or renegotiate a deal that experts say is getting more and more expensive for the Tesla CEO.

While such heavy-handed tactics are not uncommon in corporate mergers, the way in which this happens, becoming a widely publicized topic on the same platform that Elon Musk intends to acquire, is almost unprecedented, according to the Associated Press (AP).

The Tesla founder recently pushed investors to their limit by announcing that he was temporarily putting on hold the purchase of the platform he announced for nearly $44 billion, only to later correct that information and indicate that he remains committed to acquiring it.

“This is the strategy you are trying to use as a way to avoid [do negócio] or get a lower price,” said Brian Quinn, associate professor of law at Boston College.

Musk took to Twitter on Tuesday to say that the agreement reached to buy the company cannot “move forward” unless the social network provides public evidence that less than 5% of the accounts on the platform are fake or “fake spam.”

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Experts say Mux cannot unilaterally halt the deal, though that hasn’t stopped the billionaire from acting as if he could.

If he backs out of the agreement, he could be ordered to pay a $1 billion fee.

On Monday, Elon Musk bluntly and sarcastically responded to reports from the CEO of Twitter about fake accounts.

Parag Agrawal emphasized in his post that the social network blocks more than half a million “spam” accounts every day “before users even see them.”

“The most difficult problem is that many accounts that at first glance seem to be fake are actually real people. And some of the fake accounts that are actually the most dangerous and cause the most harm to our users may appear to be completely legitimate,” he added.

According to Agrawal, this is why the Twitter team cannot identify all fake profiles.

“We measure it within the company. And every quarter, we estimate that less than 5% of the quarterly monetized active users (mDAUs) are spam accounts,” he said.

However, the CEO indicated that “actual internal estimates for the past four quarters have been well below 5%.”

But Elon Musk mentioned in a tweet this Tuesday that there are “20% fake/spam accounts,” four times as many as Twitter claims.

Musk warned that the figure could be much higher and that his offer to buy was based on the accuracy of the social network’s records.

For Brian Quinn, the words of the founder of Tesla do not make sense.

“The disclosure you are asking for is the same information that the company has been filing with the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) for a long period of time,” he said.

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This Monday, Elon Musk said for the first time during a technology conference in Miami that he would like to pay less to buy Twitter and that a bargain at a lower price was out of the question.

Also at All In Summit, Musk estimated that at least 20% of the 229 million Twitter accounts are “spam” “bots”, noting that this percentage is at the low end of his estimate.

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Economy

Lagarde Cuts ECB Chief Economist Interventions During Monetary Policy Meetings – Monetary Policy

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Lagarde Cuts ECB Chief Economist Interventions During Monetary Policy Meetings - Monetary Policy

European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde wants more votes to be given to all national central bank governors on the institution’s board during monetary policy meetings, reducing the intervention of the chief economist. and executive committee members at meetings, Reuters reported, citing six people close to the matter.

The British agency claims that Lagarde asked Philip Lane, the central bank’s chief economist, and Isabelle Schnabel, a member of the institution’s “executive board”, to limit their intervention and leave more room for those in charge of the central banks of the 19 eurozone countries. can comment on monetary policy in the region.

Lagarde decided to limit board presentations to 20 pages and asked staff to finish their seminars by lunchtime on the first day of the long-awaited ECB monetary policy meetings.

Also, these meetings now start on Wednesday mornings instead of the usual afternoons. In turn, Thursday’s session starts half an hour earlier to give more room for debate.

According to the same sources, these rules have already been applied at the last meeting on monetary policy, which took place on 14 April.

Lane’s presentations and proposals take center stage at the ECB’s membership meetings, which include an informal Wednesday night dinner attended by 19 ECB governors and six board members.

Until these rules were enforced, there were meetings where Lane’s presentations exceeded 60 pages, limiting the time for debate between the 19 eurozone governors.

As for Schnabel, these new rules are only preventive in nature, since, according to the same sources, his appearances are “relatively short”.

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“Philip has a huge presence [nestas reuniões]it’s good to balance [a sua posição com a dos governadores] “, one of the sources concluded.

The Council of the European Central Bank will meet on June 9 to discuss monetary policy in the euro area, while markets and the institution’s own members, including Lagarde, point to an interest rate hike already underway. end of the asset purchase program.

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