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EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Levels to Watch



Japanese Yen Price Outlook: EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Levels to Watch

Japanese Yen Outlook, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, JPY Technical Analysis – Talking Points:

  • Japanese Yen may extend its recent decline after snapping key trend support and sliding into oversold territory for the second time in 2020.
  • EUR/JPY rates due for a pullback as RSI divergence suggests exhaustion and price carves out a bearish Rising Wedge pattern.
  • AUD/JPY tracking in Ascending Triangle hints at possible bullish breakout in the coming days.

Despite a relatively bleak fundamental backdrop, the haven-associated Japanese Yen seems poised to extend its 5-month decline against its major counterparts after snapping its 6-year uptrend and sliding into oversold territory for the second time this year.

Japanese Yen Index** Daily Chart

JPY Index daily chart created using TradingView**JPY Index averages CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY

Directed lower by the downtrend extending from the yearly high set in March, JPY crashed through its 2014 uptrend earlier this month before finding support at the February low.

Although RSI divergence suggests a degree of underlying exhaustion in the recent downtrend, the oscillator continues to track below 30 and in oversold territory. This could be indicative of further losses in the near-term for the Japanese Yen.

However, with the February low capping the downside for the time-being a corrective rally to test the March downtrend may be likely in the coming days.

The development of the trend-defining 50-day moving average also hints at a potential correction, as it notably flattens out after crossing below its ‘slower’ 200-period counterpart.

Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for the ‘safe haven’ currency appears to be lower, with a break and close below the February lows needed to validate bearish potential.

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EUR/JPY Daily Chart – Rising Wedge Pattern Threatens Uptrend

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Levels to Watch

EUR/JPY daily chart created using TradingView

A Hanging Man candle just shy of the April 2019 high (126.80), combined with significant RSI divergence, could signal the end of the EUR/JPY exchange rate’s 10.8% surge from the May low (114.39) to set a fresh yearly high on August 13 (126.75).

With price appearing to have carved out a bearish Rising Wedge pattern over the last 12 months, a substantial break to the downside could be in the offing if sellers can snap the exchange rate’s 14-week uptrend as well as support at the June high (124.43).

That being said, the positive steepening of the 50- (122.85) and 200-DMA (120.88) suggests an overall shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish and could see any pullback in EUR/JPY rates significantly supported by an influx of buyers.

Therefore, although price seems poised to slide back to support at the May 2019 high (125.23), extended declines may not eventuate should key psychological support at the 125 level remain intact.

A decline may allow EUR/JPY to shake off overbought readings on the RSI and regroup for a push to fresh yearly highs, if buyers can smash through resistance at the monthly swing top (126.75).

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 17% 5% 10%
Weekly 32% 16% 22%

AUD/JPY Daily Chart – Triple Top or Ascending Triangle?

Japanese Yen Price Outlook: EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY Levels to Watch

AUD/JPY daily chart created using TradingView

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AUD/JPY rates appear to have carved an Ascending Triangle pattern at key resistance, with a series of lower lows and stagnant highs signalling that sellers may be running out of steam as they attempt to defend the psychologically pivotal 77 level.

Moreover, the RSI looks to be gearing up for a push into overbought territory as it hovers in bullish territory above 60 and could stoke buying pressure if it breaks above its downtrend extending from yearly extremes.

Overbought readings would probably coincide with AUD/JPY climbing above key resistance at the June high (76.78) and potentially validate a topside break of the bullish Ascending Triangle continuation pattern.

An implied measured move suggests price could push to test the 81 level for the first time since April 2019.

Conversely, a break of trend support would invalidate the bullish pattern and could ignite a pullback to the 200-day moving average (73.15) and 61.8% Fibonacci (72.72).

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily 0% 13% 8%
Weekly 6% 12% 10%

— Written by Daniel Moss, Analyst for DailyFX

Follow me on Twitter @DanielGMoss

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Banco de Portugal is revisiting high inflation this year to 7.8%. The economy grows until the end of the year, but will stop in 2023



Banco de Portugal is revisiting high inflation this year to 7.8%.  The economy grows until the end of the year, but will stop in 2023

The Bank of Portugal revised upwards by 1.9 percentage points (pp) its inflation forecast for this year to 7.8%, the highest since 1993, reflecting growing external pressure on prices.

In its October economic bulletin released today, the Bank of Portugal (BdP) predicts that the harmonized consumer price index will hit 7.8% this year. upward revision from 5.9% forecast in Junebut still below the eurozone.

The regulator explains that inflationary pressures remain high in the second half of the year despite some signs of easing, which it estimates will see the rate stay above 9% during this period, peaking in the third quarter (9.9%) . 5%) and slightly reduced by the end of the year.

On the economic front, the BdP improved its growth outlook by 0.4 percentage points this year. to 6.7%, signaling a recovery from pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter but a subsequent slowdown that will be reflected in 2023.

In the October Economic Bulletin, released today, the organization, led by Mario Centeno, presents only forecasts for this year, but points to the impact of the slowdown in economic growth for 2023 recorded from the second quarter onwards.

“The negative effects of Russian military aggression in Ukraine have intensified over the course of the year, which suggests a relative stabilization of activity from the second quarter onwards. These effects will be more pronounced in 2023, foreseeing a significant slowdown in growth compared to 2022, with a domino effect of over 3.9 p.p. [pontos percentuais] up to 0.5 p.p. ”, it can be read.

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However, for this year, the growth forecast for gross domestic product (GDP) has been revised upward by 0.4 percentage points. up 6.7% from June, with the Portuguese economy “benefiting from a recovery in tourism and private consumption”.

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Pilots offer TAP the same logic of fleet renewal to restore working conditions – Breaking News



Pilots offer TAP the same logic of fleet renewal to restore working conditions - Breaking News

In a statement sent to members, to which Lusa had access, the Civil Aviation Pilots Union (SPAC) cites the adage “Caesar’s wife is not enough to be serious, she must look serious” to criticize the TAP option.

“Following the justification rationale from those who choose to purchase cars during this very challenging time, which is based on miraculous savings, we offer the same “spend more to save” logic to restore dignity. workers,” the union said in a statement.

This is the news, reported by TVI/CNN Portugal and Away portal, that TAP has ordered a new fleet of BMW cars for administration and managers, replacing Peugeot cars.

In the memo, SPAC emphasizes that “while some are undergoing brutal pay cuts, while layoffs are still ongoing and quality of life depends on others, at the same time, the fleet of leadership positions is being revamped.” arguing that “the existence of social justice is indispensable for the existence of social justice.”

In this context, he believes that the “new attitude” to “expenses” should affect pilots when working conditions are restored.

“If this does not happen, we will be very surprised and will be forced to believe in the hypothesis that the TAP administration either does not want to use financial surpluses to fairly replace the working conditions of workers, or there is no financial surplus and this renewal of the fleet was paid for by reducing the wages of workers,” the statement says.

TAP claims that the renewal of the fleet for the administration and managers saves 630 thousand euros annually, justifying that the decision was based on this consideration while respecting the contracts.

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“The Board wishes to clarify that TAP has a corporate fleet for administration and directors, which is in an operational ‘lease’ mode. With the option we have made, we are saving up to 630,000 euros annually if we kept the cars we have today,” TAP said in an internal statement, which Lusa had access to.

TAP justifies this by saying that 50 vehicles were at stake, for which a tender was held for the market, and six organizations were invited to participate in the Portuguese market.

“The offer with the lowest price has been selected, with a monthly income of 500 euros. For reference, other offers submitted by TAP with a more competitive cost included a monthly rent of 750 euros,” the company’s executive committee explained in a statement.

Also today, the National Union of Civil Aviation Flight Personnel (SNPVAC) said in a statement that Lusa had access to that the TAP fleet renewal causes “a lot of shame on the part of others”, given that if it is not a sign of willingness to raise crew salaries, it is “shameful » a management act.

The President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, also reacted to the news today, pointing out to the Portuguese airline a “problem of common sense”.

“I have already spoken about several public organizations in the past, about the distribution of dividends and about wages, and I understand that when you are in a difficult period, efforts must be made to set an example of containment,” Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa defended.

According to the President of the Republic, it is understandable that companies bear the costs, but he defended the need to “have common sense” when the country and the world are going through a “difficult period.”

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From taxes to wages. Six CMVM Proposals to Encourage Savings – Markets



From taxes to wages.  Six CMVM Proposals to Encourage Savings - Markets

Taxation plays a central role in encouraging long-term savings. This is the conclusion of a study by the Securities Market Commission (CMVM) on the subject, which identifies six main measures highlighting the importance of encouraging the savings of Portuguese families who reduced and mostly stored in warehouses.

“Long-term saving plays a fundamental role in improving the financial security and well-being of individuals and families, as well as in financing companies and the economy as a whole. It is very difficult and often difficult, especially for families,” points out from a document published in World Investor Week.

That is why states encourage and support the formation of these savings, namely through tax incentives. Portugal is already including some of these exemptions in its tax system, but the regulator believes more are needed. Here are six measures:

1. Favorable taxation for the new “European NDP”.

The Pan-European Reform Product (PEPP), which came into force in March 2022 national regulation was promised government by the end of this year – is the goal of the first recommendation. The CMVM calls for the creation of a PEPP tax regime “in line with the government capitalization regime”.

This equalization will mean tax deductions for PEPP subscribers, tax exemption for PEPP investment portfolios, and more tax-friendly treatment of payments made by PEPP to its subscribers when they subsequently gain access to benefits.

2. European investment funds

With regard to European products, the CMVM is also considering European Union long-term investment funds (ELTIF), requiring that the tax treatment for collective investment bodies apply to both this product and credit funds, allowing their holders to benefit. from tax deferral on redemption or reimbursement in case of reinvestment.

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3. PPR style savings accounts

CMVM’s second proposal is to create individual retirement savings plans or accounts that are eligible for the Savings and Retirement Plan (PPR) regime. In other words, these would be accounts in which depositors could place their savings up to a certain amount, as well as buy and transact financial instruments on them.

4. Reformulation of the IRS collection

A reformulation and increase in the IRS collection deduction applied to long-term retirement savings products (depending on the various ways this can be done) is seen as necessary to encourage long-term savings.

5. Reinvestment of capital in deferred tax funds

Postponing the taxation of redemption or reimbursement of investment funds in case of reinvestment is also one of the measures. In the case of transfers between funds, the relevant taxation will only take place when the investor leaves the investment fund circuit and at rates that are all the more favorable the longer the investment in this circuit remains stable.

6. “Pair contributions”

In addition to taxes, CMVM also proposes the creation of programs to encourage long-term savings by establishing upfront commitments between companies and workers to save on future wage increases. According to the watchdog, these “coincident contributions” would allow deferral of repayments or refunds of taxes in the event of a reinvestment.

“Saving to achieve specific long-term goals allows families to increase their own funds to meet these expenses, reduce credit use, monthly efforts of families associated with a reduction in credit and the risk of default for the financial sector. “, he emphasizes.

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CMVM adds that the application of long-term savings in financial instruments tends to be advantageous because the return on savings applied to them tends to be higher than the return on other financial products such as bank deposits.

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