Japanese Yen Outlook, AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY, JPY Technical Analysis – Talking Points:
Japanese Yen may extend its recent decline after snapping key trend support and sliding into oversold territory for the second time in 2020.
EUR/JPY rates due for a pullback as RSI divergence suggests exhaustion and price carves out a bearish Rising Wedge pattern.
AUD/JPY tracking in Ascending Triangle hints at possible bullish breakout in the coming days.
Despite a relatively bleak fundamental backdrop, the haven-associated Japanese Yen seems poised to extend its 5-month decline against its major counterparts after snapping its 6-year uptrend and sliding into oversold territory for the second time this year.
Japanese Yen Index** Daily Chart
JPY Index daily chart created using TradingView**JPY Index averages CAD/JPY, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY, GBP/JPY
Directed lower by the downtrend extending from the yearly high set in March, JPY crashed through its 2014 uptrend earlier this month before finding support at the February low.
Although RSI divergence suggests a degree of underlying exhaustion in the recent downtrend, the oscillator continues to track below 30 and in oversold territory. This could be indicative of further losses in the near-term for the Japanese Yen.
However, with the February low capping the downside for the time-being a corrective rally to test the March downtrend may be likely in the coming days.
The development of the trend-defining 50-day moving average also hints at a potential correction, as it notably flattens out after crossing below its ‘slower’ 200-period counterpart.
Nevertheless, the path of least resistance for the ‘safe haven’ currency appears to be lower, with a break and close below the February lows needed to validate bearish potential.
A Hanging Man candle just shy of the April 2019 high (126.80), combined with significant RSI divergence, could signal the end of the EUR/JPY exchange rate’s 10.8% surge from the May low (114.39) to set a fresh yearly high on August 13 (126.75).
With price appearing to have carved out a bearish Rising Wedge pattern over the last 12 months, a substantial break to the downside could be in the offing if sellers can snap the exchange rate’s 14-week uptrend as well as support at the June high (124.43).
That being said, the positive steepening of the 50- (122.85) and 200-DMA (120.88) suggests an overall shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish and could see any pullback in EUR/JPY rates significantly supported by an influx of buyers.
Therefore, although price seems poised to slide back to support at the May 2019 high (125.23), extended declines may not eventuate should key psychological support at the 125 level remain intact.
A decline may allow EUR/JPY to shake off overbought readings on the RSI and regroup for a push to fresh yearly highs, if buyers can smash through resistance at the monthly swing top (126.75).
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AUD/JPY Daily Chart – Triple Top or Ascending Triangle?
AUD/JPY rates appear to have carved an Ascending Triangle pattern at key resistance, with a series of lower lows and stagnant highs signalling that sellers may be running out of steam as they attempt to defend the psychologically pivotal 77 level.
Moreover, the RSI looks to be gearing up for a push into overbought territory as it hovers in bullish territory above 60 and could stoke buying pressure if it breaks above its downtrend extending from yearly extremes.
Overbought readings would probably coincide with AUD/JPY climbing above key resistance at the June high (76.78) and potentially validate a topside break of the bullish Ascending Triangle continuation pattern.
An implied measured move suggests price could push to test the 81 level for the first time since April 2019.
Conversely, a break of trend support would invalidate the bullish pattern and could ignite a pullback to the 200-day moving average (73.15) and 61.8% Fibonacci (72.72).
With no end in sight to sanctions against Russia, Western planes destined for Russian companies are already being sent to other companies, confirming previously inflated expectations.
The first of these is the Airbus A350-900XWB, which originally went to Aeroflot and was refinished and painted in the colors of a Russian state company, but now it goes to another state company, Turkish, since Western companies cannot sell more aircraft. for the Russians because of the sanctions.
how never seen AEROIN beforeTurkish Airlines has entered into an agreement with Airbus to speed up deliveries of the A350 aircraft and they were expected to receive the aircraft that will go to Aeroflot, for a total of six aircraft.
Now the first of them has actually been spotted at the Airbus factory in Toulouse, in the south of France. Based on a photo from Eurospot, the aircraft still has Aeroflot livery on the fuselage, tail and engines, but has already been given the name Turkish Airlines written in the original colors of the Turkish company.
When this copy will be delivered and if the painting will be finished is not yet clear, as it is reported that the interior will not be changed and will remain as ordered by the Russian company. Since Turkey uses the A350 on its regular flight between Istanbul and Sao Paulo, there is a possibility that this aircraft will soon appear in Brazil.
problem hypercar The AMG One gave Mercedes a lot of headaches. Originally scheduled for a 2019 launch, the model has yet to hit dealerships until today. a problem perhaps underestimated by the German automaker: the adaptation of a powertrain designed for single-seat cars – in this case Formula 1 – to a street model. The brand’s CEO Ola Kallenius himself joked about the launch delay last Thursday (19) while talking to investors, saying he must have been “drunk” when he agreed to the project.
“About four years ago, the AMG team and its Formula 1 powertrain division approached us and said, “We have a great idea: let’s put a Formula 1 engine in a road car.” I’ll have to go back to check the minutes of the meeting, but I’m sure we were drunk when we said yes,” Kallenius joked when asked about the hypercar’s launch date.
The Mercedes AMG One uses a 1.6 V6 hybrid engine borrowed from the Constructors’ Championship-winning car in Formula 1 in 2017. With all-wheel drive, it was originally slated for early 2019. At the moment, it still doesn’t have a set release date, although the company says it will announce news about the model “in a few weeks.” With 1,000 horsepower, the car has a top speed of 350 km/h and accelerates from 0 to 200 km/h in just 6 seconds.
The documentary will show the history of the project
Mercedes is also promising to release a “very honest” documentary on the development of the hypercar, marketing director Bettina Fetzer announced at the same investor event in Monaco.
The German automaker should draw inspiration from the successful Drive to Survive series. about reality show Formula 1 on Netflixto close the function. Executives are betting on an approach that shows the daunting task of adapting a single-seat engine to a street car, likely to soften the tight launch delay skirt and brand image.
Mercedes said last year that production of 275 AMG One units would begin in 2022 and that each was sold for €2.27 million (about R$11.6 million). According to Kallenius, this will connect the company’s activities in Formula 1 with its road cars. “This demonstrates that our participation in Formula 1 has a direct impact on the AMG brand,” he said.
Main image credit: Mercedes-Benz/Disclosure.(AMG One design in detail)
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