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History says Trump’s low approval rating is unlikely to move

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CNN poll: Trump sees big drop in approval rating

What is the point: We still have five months until the general election, which, in theory, has plenty of time for the president’s race to change. Indeed, horse racing polls have sometimes shifted far between this point and Election Day.

However, the presidential approval rating has historically not moved much since June of the election year being Election Day.

It seems very likely at this point that Trump’s approval rating will be south of 50% and his net approval rating (approval – rejection) becomes negative when people vote. That should be very troubling for Trump, given the strong relationship between approval ratings and chances of re-election.

There are 13 presidents who are running for another term in the election era (since 1940). For each of those presidents, I compared the Gallup average (or, in the case of 1944, the Office of Public Opinion Research) June approval rating and they estimated approval rating on election day.

The average president has seen changes in his approval rating by only 3 points from now until the election. That will only make Trump a mid-40s at best. Trump’s approval rating is similar during the middle semester of 2018, when his party lost control of the DPR.

The net approval rating tells the same story. The president on average has a net approval rating shift by only 6 points from this point forward. Given Trump’s net approval rating at a negative low until mid-teens, a 6-point increase will land him with a net approval of around -7 to -10 points on Election Day. Once again, that’s where he is in the middle of 2018 semester.

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Trump, it’s not over yet. Maybe the president’s ranking has shifted. Harry Truman saw a 20-point increase in his net approval rating in the last five months of the 1948 campaign. On the other hand, Lyndon Johnson’s net approval rating dropped by about 15 points in the final months of the 1964 election.

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However, we are only talking about two presidents out of 13 whose net approval ratings rose by more than 10 points in the last five months of the campaign. One of them went in the wrong direction for the president. Trump needs his net approval rating to go up by more than 10 points to achieve a positive net approval rating.

Trump’s fate of former Vice President Joe Biden will not be perfectly correlated with his approval rating, but it will be highly correlated. Our last CNN / SSR poll, more than 90% agreed Trump said they would vote for Trump. More than 90% of disappointment said they would vote for Biden.
One previous estimate of FiveThirtyEight’s Silver Nate suggested that a president with a 40% approval rating in June before the election only had about 20% chance of winning the next election. That’s mostly jibes with more sophisticated model which takes into account many indicators.

Can Trump be one of the 20%? Clear. Don’t round 20% to 0%.

Remember, however, Trump’s approval rating has been great from any president before him. There is no strong reason to think that he will get a greater than average increase in his approval rating and therefore the chance of his re-election.
Trump’s inability to move his own numbers is probably why he chased Biden so much. Biden is less defined than Trump, and dragging Biden down might be Trump’s only chance of winning.

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Thomas Gouveia remains the best Portuguese in the Swiss Challenge

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Thomas Gouveia remains the best Portuguese in the Swiss Challenge

Writing with Lusa

Tournament of the second European circuit.

Thomas Gouveia solidified his status as the best Portuguese in the Swiss Challenge this Saturday by finishing the penultimate day of the second European round robin in a group of 31st placed golfers.

Thomas Gouveia hit the card with 73 shots, one over par on the course, after two birdies (one under par hole) and three bogeys (one over), after making 71 shots in the previous two days for a total of 215.

Thomas Bessa needed 75 hits, three over par and tied for scarecrows, he finished 48th with 218 total, five short of Vitor Lopez, 60th with 223, after today needs 78, with just one bird . to fit five scarecrows and a double scarecrow.

The Swiss Challenge, which concludes on Sunday in Folgensburg, France, is still led by France’s Chung Veon Ko with a total of 206 shots, one short of Denmark’s Martin Simonsen in second place.

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Miguel Oliveira qualified eighth for the Japanese Grand Prix.

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Miguel Oliveira qualified eighth for the Japanese Grand Prix.

Portuguese rider Miguel Oliveira (KTM) qualified this Saturday in eighth position at the Japanese MotoGP Grand Prix, 16th of 20 races of the season, despite a last-minute crash.

The Portuguese from the Austrian brand set his best lap of 1.55.895 minutes, finishing 0.681 seconds behind fastest Spaniard Marc Marquez (Honda). France’s Johann Zarco (Ducati) was second with 0.208 seconds and South African Brad Binder (KTM) was third with 0.323 seconds.

“I had good speed and potential in the second quarter and on this particular lap. [a última], but I was on the floor in the ninth turn. It was a shame, but I have confidence in tomorrow (Sunday),” commented the Portuguese rider in statements released by the KTM team. “It was difficult to prepare for the race, but we’ll see.” [o que vai acontecer]”- concluded Miguel Oliveira.

The Portuguese left the third row of the grid after falling just three minutes before the end of the session, marred by rain that caused a delay of more than an hour and had already forced the cancellation of the third free game. training session, at night. The fall of the Portuguese rider occurred in the third sector of the track, at a time when his results were improving. When 15 minutes of this second qualifying stage (Q2) ended, Oliveira finished in fourth place.

However, several riders were still halfway to the last lap and the Almada rider ended up being overtaken by Spaniards Jorge Martin (Ducati), Brad Binder and Aprilia Spaniards Aleix Espargaro and Maverick Viñales.

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Pole position was won by Marc Marquez 1,071 days after he was the fastest in qualifying for the MotoGP World Championship, namely the 2019 Japanese Grand Prix.

“I am very pleased with the pole position. This morning I felt very strong on the wet track and decided to give it a try. This is very important for us and for the future. Tomorrow, on a dry surface, everything will be different. history,” said the Spanish rider, who has already become world champion eight times.

The rain that hit the Motegi track became a headache for the riders and the organization, which was forced to interrupt the Moto2 qualifying nine minutes before the end and cancel the third free practice in MotoGP.

Traffic on the track only resumed after more than an hour, and the wet track was the cause of several accidents, including that of a Portuguese KTM rider who slid off the pavement without physical consequences.

Johann Zarco’s Ducati was the fastest today, reaching 302 kilometers per hour, while Oliveira’s KTM lost 30 kilometers per hour in a straight line (the maximum speed achieved by the Portuguese was 270 kilometers per hour). Luca Marini’s Ducati was the slowest, reaching 255.9 kilometers per hour, leaving the Italian in 10th place.

Champion and championship leader Fabio Quartararo (Yamaha) of France finished ninth behind Miguel Oliveira, while World Cup runner-up Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati) of Italy finished 12th and last in the second quarter, bringing together the top 10 fastest in free practice and the top two in the first quarter.

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Already the Italian Enea Bastianini (Ducati), the winner of the previous stage in Aragon, remained in Q1, where he fell without physical consequences.

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Arapiraquense makes humorous videos to give Portuguese advice: “You learn and laugh” | alagoas

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Arapiraquense makes humorous videos to give Portuguese advice: "You learn and laugh" |  alagoas

“You learn and you laugh” is how Erivaldo Amancio defines the Portuguese language content he offers online. Born in Arapiraque, Alagoas, he humorously gives advice and answers questions about the Portuguese language.

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Erivaldo has 767k followers on Instagram and over 17.5k followers on YouTube. It all started a year and a half ago when he got scolded in a comment on social media.

Because the swearing contained several grammatical errors, Erivaldo responded by posting a video teaching a “lesson” to the hater.

“It happened more than once. Some of these videos were posted on humorous Instagram profiles. It made me stand out,” he said.

A literature student at the Federal University of Alagoas (Ufal), Erivaldo wants to prepare even more for face-to-face classes when he is near the end of the course. He says the purpose of the profile is to encourage followers to seek out more knowledge.

“Tips on the web are just a seed, the fruit of which can be curiosity about objects,” he explained.

Through social media, Erivaldo responds to his followers’ doubts about the Portuguese language.

Erivaldo’s profile is also in demand by contestants and students preparing for Enem.

“[Os seguidores] it is said to be a very interesting way of learning. Many regret not learning from teachers who use humor in the classroom,” he said.

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