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Donald Trump has historically been strong on his basis, and that’s the problem

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Trump keeps lying about this one thing. And it's a problem.

Both polls show Trump with a substantial advantage among self-identified Republicans: 93% to 5% Biden (Monmouth) and 92% to 4% (NBC News / Wall Street Journal).

What is the point: Trump has made the game clear during his presidency to satisfy the Republican base, and opinion polls show that this effort is clearly bearing fruit. The base did not leave him, even though the total number remained weak.

Trump’s problem is that he is pretty much making use of this support reserve.

See Trump and Biden’s head-to-head vote
After making good business to achieve a score in the primaries against essentially no competition, Trump won a little less than 95% of the Republican primary vote as a whole. That looks very similar to a vote for a general election which places it in less than 95% of Republican votes. It will be difficult for him to get over it.
Indeed, Trump has higher support among Republican voters today than any Republican since at least 2000. You can see this at ABC News / Washington Post poll. That one, like Monmouth’s and NBC / Wall Street Journal, has Trump almost 95% (94%), while Biden remains at only 4%.

Originating in 2000, no Republican has ever had more than 91% of Republicans supporting it at this time in the ABC News / Washington Post poll. The average Republican has 84% ​​of the Republicans behind him. The first basic strategy in the election made far more sense than one during the Trump era.

(The historical nature of these figures applies if we include independent people who rely on the Republic.)

Maybe Trump believes he doesn’t need to change his strategy because he ignores the advice of most people and still wins in 2016. That’s a mistake. Beyond the fact that there is good evidence that Trump outrun more than moderates than he ruled, Trump has more room to grow with a base in 2016. He scored only 74% of Republicans who identified themselves in ABC News / Washington Poll taken right around this point – the lowest of any Republican since 2000.

Where Trump is weak is outside the Republican base. In ABC / Washington Post (similar numbers for Monmouth and NBC News / Wall Street Journal), Trump stands at 39% among independents and 3% among Democrats. Both are lower than any of the Republicans currently in the ABC News / Washington Post poll that began in 2000.

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In other words, there is more potential support for Trump outside the Republican core base. Trump, it seems, is not interested in doing that.

If Trump doesn’t change things, he might find that the other party’s base is bigger than his. Biden won a greater share of Democrats in the average live interview poll (incl Polls NPR / PBS News / Marist College) came out this week (94%) than Trump won the Republican Party (92%). The average poll, as it applies for almost every year, noted more Democrats than Republicans in the country.

By continuing his base-first strategy, Trump made sure that he would not see the bottom fall out. However, he will find that actually gathering the coalition needed to win will be very difficult.

This story has been updated to include the results of the NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll on Sunday.

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Portuguese TV project ‘O Último Lobo’ wins 2 awards in Spain

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Portuguese TV project 'O Último Lobo' wins 2 awards in Spain

“BUT SPi introduced [na Conecta, que decorreu entre terça-feira e hoje em Toledo,] two of his upcoming art projects, “Code 632” and “O Último Lobo”, the latter of which is one of the finalists of the “pitching” session and received the RTVE award, the event’s highest award, which means an agreement between the Spanish public broadcaster RTVE and the ACORDE award” , the Portuguese producer said in a statement released today.

The Last Lobo, an eight-episode co-production between SPi and Caracol Studios and written by Bruno Gascon, is “a crime drama that tells the story of Lobo, one of Europe’s biggest drug dealers.”

“Code 632”, a co-production of RTP and Globoplay, is a six-episode series based on the book “O Code 632” by José Rodrigues dos Santos.

Recording for this series will begin in July and will be split between Lisbon and Rio de Janeiro. According to RTP, in a statement released this week, the book adaptation for the series is being handled by Pedro López and directed by Sergio Graciano.

“Based on authentic historical documents, Codex 632 focuses on a cryptic message found among the papers the old historian left behind in Rio de Janeiro before he died,” recalls RTP.

The cast included Portuguese and Brazilian actors and starred Paulo Pires and Deborah Secco.

SPi, part of the SP Televisão group, produced the Netflix series Gloria and co-produced Auga Seca for HBO Portugal, among others.

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Portuguese rider Miguel Oliveira in 16th place after the first free practice in Assen – DNOTICIAS.PT

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Portuguese rider Miguel Oliveira in 16th place after the first free practice in Assen – DNOTICIAS.PT

Portuguese rider Miguel Oliveira (KTM) finished the first two free practices of the MotoGP Grand Prix in Assen in 16th place.

Oliveira finished the day with a time of 1.34.676 minutes, 1.402 seconds behind the best rider of the day, Italy’s Francesco Banagia (Ducati). Spaniard Aleix Espargaro (April) was second with 0.178 seconds and French champion Fabio Quartararo (Yamaha) was third with 0.305 seconds.

After the first session in the rain, in which the rider from Almada was sixth fastest, the rain stopped before the start of the second session.

The riders started with intermediate tires, but as the track in Assen in the Netherlands, considered the “cathedral” of motorsport, dried up, they installed dry tires (slicks).

Under these conditions, Miguel Oliveira was losing ground in the table, ending the day in 16th place, despite an improvement of about nine seconds from the morning’s record, in rain, in which Australian Jack Miller (Ducati) was the fastest. , fifth in the afternoon.

On Saturday there will be two more free practices and qualifications.

The 10 fastest in the set of the first three sessions go directly to the second stage of qualification (Q2), and the remaining 14 “brawl” in Q1, resulting in the two fastest qualifying to the next stage.

Fabio Quartararo enters this 11th round of the season leading the championship with 172 points, while Miguel Oliveira is in 10th place with 64 points.

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Portuguese MNEs defend that Mercosur is a “natural partner” of the European Union at the moment – Observer

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Portuguese MNEs defend that Mercosur is a "natural partner" of the European Union at the moment - Observer

This Thursday, Portugal’s foreign minister said that at a time when the European Union (EU) seeks to diversify suppliers and markets, MERCOSUR is a natural partner whose importance cannot be “underestimated”.

For Portugal, “the current delicate context makes us appreciate even more the mutual advantages of the Agreement between the EU and MERCOSUR,” João Gomes Cravinho said, without directly referring to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

“At a time when the EU is seeking to diversify suppliers and markets in order to ensure greater strategic autonomy, MERCOSUR is a natural partner, whose importance we cannot underestimate“, the minister added at a conference entitled “Brazil and Portugal: perspectives for the future”, which takes place from Thursday to Friday at the Gulbenkian Foundation in Lisbon.

The Southern Common Market (MERCOSUR) is a South American economic bloc created in 1991, whose founding members are Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay.

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But still, within the framework of the European Union, Joao Gomes Cravinho believed that EU strategic partnership with Brazil left ‘untapped’.

The Minister stressed that in the context of the EU, Portugal “always knew how to use its position in favor of strengthening relations with Brazil.”

Therefore, it was during the Portuguese presidency, in 2007, that a “strategic partnership with Brazil” was established, he stressed.

However, according to the head of Portuguese diplomacy, this is “a partnership that has clearly not been used for a variety of reasons and which still retains the ability to position Brazil as Europe’s great interlocutor for South America.”

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With regard to bilateral relations between the two countries, the minister emphasized that “in this context of global turmoil, the wisdom of the central characteristic common to the foreign policy of Brazil and Portugal, which is active participation in many multilateral structures, in recognition of the indispensability of multilateralism, international cooperation and global rules based order.

Portugal meets with Brazil in all areas of Portuguese foreign policy. We are Atlantic, we are Ibero-American and Portuguese-speaking,” he said.

In the Atlantic dimension, “Portugal and Brazil are united by an ocean, which we recognize as growing in importance in the context of new, complex and truly existential issues,” he said.

According to João Gomes Cravinho, “Some of these problems can be answered in the Atlantic Center, co-founded by Portugal and Brazil”, and “the other part of the huge ocean problems will be addressed in detail at the great Summit.” Oceans”, which will be held in Lisbon next week.

“In any of the areas, new prospects are opening up for Portuguese-Brazilian relations,” he stressed.

With regard to Ibero-America, the minister believes that Portugal and Brazil share “an enormous strategic space with the Castilian-speaking countries, where a joint Portuguese-Brazilian reflection is undoubtedly recommended on the potential to exploit opportunities and create synergies”.

“Value of CPLP [Comunidade de Países de Língua Portuguesa] is gaining more and more recognition at the international level – and the evidence of this is the growing number of states that become associate observers” of the organization, he believes.

“Because they want to engage with us and reinforce the value of the linguistic, cultural and historical ties that unify lusophony and create a unique dynamic for relationships with third parties,” he stressed.

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But even at this level, he argued that there was an urgent need to find a “convergence of visions and desires” that “allows us to enhance” our “separate realities.”

The minister also mentioned that “despite the break caused by the pandemic”, Portugal has a “real air bridge” with Brazil, consisting of more than 74 weekly TAP flights, which is a cause and effect of “a dynamic that is being updated and reinvented”. relations between the two countries.

This dynamic, according to Gomes Cravinho, is also reflected in economic and commercial relations.

Thus, “Brazil is the first Latin American export market for Portuguese merchandise and is already the fourth largest merchandise export destination (outside the EU).

“However, the conviction remains that the potential is far from being realized, and that nostalgia for the future entails a vision of a different profile of our exchanges, a technological, creative profile that corresponds to global geo-economic transformations,” he defended. .

At this stage, João Gomes Cravinho also underlined the potential of the port of Sines, “whose strategic importance, which has long been noted, takes on new importance in the troubled times that we are going through.”

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