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State polls show Biden has a clear national advantage



State polls show Biden has a clear national advantage

What is the point: One of the big questions when we look at national polls is whether they are an accurate representation of what is happening at the state level. One of the easiest ways to check is with compare the results of state polls for past presidential elections in certain states. I did it for all telephone polls that have been calling cell phones since early April.
When we were average out this state poll, they suggested that Biden ran about 6 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s final margin.

In other words, state-level polls show that Biden has a national advantage of around 8 points.

That is actually slightly larger than the 6.6 points that Biden has in the average high-quality national poll taken in the same period. I should note that if we weigh the average state poll for each state population, we get a margin of 6.6 points in the north. (Population-based weights make us somewhat more vulnerable to outlier polls, because we have fewer polls from the most populous states.)

In addition, all methods agree that Biden has considerable national advantage.

Researching state polls has the advantage of having more data points to play, so I feel safe enough that they give us a decent snapshot. We are looking at more than 20 polls and more than 15,000 interviews. Small aggregate error margins.

In addition, we can see conditions that we expect to be at least a little competitive (ie, those whose margins are within the last 10 points) and which in our opinion will not close in 2020.

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In competitive countries (where most state voting has taken place), there has been an average swing of 6 points against Biden compared to the Clinton 2016 results. The same is true in non-competitive countries.

At least from this state-level data, it seems that no candidate runs a disproportionate score in fields that are already friendly to him.

Biden has posted leads of more than 5 points in places like Michigan and Pennsylvania. He excelled in more than enough states to win 270 electoral votes, if elections were held today.

We can also test our data, to see what would happen if the polls underestimated Trump like they did in 2016.

What I found is that Biden will stay ahead, even with a 2016 accident.

Poll downplaying Trump by 1 point (RealClearPolitics) or 2 points (FiveThirtyEight) in the aggregate of the states for which we are currently polling. Applying that 2016 bias to our current data, Biden will have 6-7 points leading nationally.

Concentrate only on competitive countries, Trump’s undersold poll with 2 points (RealClearPolitics) or 3 points (FiveThirtyEight). If polls in competing countries die as much as at the end of 2016, Biden will still excel in countries such as Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Of course, it might not be wise to expect a 2016-size voting era in 2020. Polls in these countries which have large contests throughout the state in 2018 are pretty much impartial. It doesn’t matter what set of countries (all or only competitive) and which aggregate, the poll was no more favorable for the Republicans than the final result.
In states like Wisconsin, America Marquette 2018 final poll nail down the margins of the last Senate and underestimate Democratic candidates for governor’s margin by 1 point.

The point is that Biden is ahead now nationally and in competitive countries. The good news for Trump is that he has about six months to change the direction of the campaign, which is more than enough time to do it.

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Prize for the Portuguese. Andre Silva is Champions League Player of the Week



Prize for the Portuguese.  Andre Silva is Champions League Player of the Week

BUTndre Silva won the competition and became the best player of the week in the Champions League, informed UEFAthis Thursday.

The former Porto striker scored in Jota’s 3-1 victory over Celtic Leipzig, scoring a brace in a match that was signed after his Portuguese compatriot equalized.

In addition, Andre Silva also provided the assist for Nkunku, scoring the first goal of this Wednesday’s game in which huge show of foreign fans.

In addition to the Leipzig striker, Di Maria (Juventus), Bellingham (Borussia Dortmund) and Di Lorenzo (Napoli) also fought in the fight for the prize, but it was the Portuguese who managed to smile after voting for the third round of the competition, the famous This Thursday is the fair.

Read also: Diogo Costa and Andre Silva named to Champions League Team of the Week

See also: Andre Silva among the nominees for the title of the best player of the week in the Champions League

See also: double dose. Andre Silva returned to celebrate and sentenced doubts

See also: Andre Silva took advantage of Hart’s colossal mistake and responded to Jota’s goal

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Eternal Portuguese deja vu – Renaissance



Eternal Portuguese deja vu - Renaissance

At the end of the summer of 1972, exactly half a century ago, SEDES – Associação para o Desenvolvimento Económico e Social (the most famous reformist think tank during Marseilles) issued a document for the country entitled “Portugal: The country we are, the country we want to be “. The Marseille spring had already turned into autumn: Américo Thomas had just been re-elected, the colonial war had dragged on, repression had intensified, and an economic crisis was already brewing. Seeing the general frustration, and at the same time willing to go against it, the signatories of CEDES began by asking “Where will we be and how will we be in 1980?” to criticize the obstacles that overshadowed Portugal in the early 1970s.

Among the “problems that are getting worse without a solution”, emigration stood out, indicating the country’s inability to offer better living and working conditions to those who left; the growing inflationary process, reflected in the cost of living; the inevitability of economic integration in Europe when the country is not ready for international commercial competition; “disaggregation of regional economies” with “continuous depopulation of municipalities and regions” within the country; or “deterioration of public administration” when the government fails to promote a “prestigious, moralized, revitalized and efficient public sector”. “No one will have any difficulty,” continued the text, “to add to a new list of urgent questions that seriously endanger national life, about which much has been said and which, year after year, continue to wait for a sufficient solution.” Therefore, “the prevailing feeling in the country” in contemplation of the recent past and present could not but be “annoyance at urgent battles, the need for which was endlessly discussed, at decisions that were changed or postponed, and at rejected goals” or which were not clearly formulated ” .

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Between “untapped resources” and/or “lack of organizational and decision-making capacity” there was “widespread anxiety” stemming from the inevitable observation that “we are very far from the results that we could achieve thanks to the progress of the Portuguese and Portugal”. This was the macro goal of the reformist, humanist and liberalizing technocrats that SEDES brought together. “Ultimately,” they reminded Marcelo Cayetano, “the real obstacle can only be associated with the low political priority of economic and social development in our country.” So, in short, there was an urgent need to “radically change our economic, social and political way of life”, since “a national balance based on general anemia, repression and weakening of various participants” is unsustainable and pernicious.

SEDES did not know that the Estado Novo would fall in April 1974, that democracy would come in 1976, and Europe from the EEC (after EFTA) in 1986 of repression, finally gained the freedom that was discussed between the lines of the 1972 manifesto ., there would be conditions for solving (almost) all economic and social problems of development and cohesion.

Fifty years have passed since this manifesto, and almost the same number has already been in democracy. However, if we compare the above quotes with the Portuguese present, the feeling of deja vu is indescribable. SEDES wondered what the country would be like in 1980 and is wondering today (in its recent study “Ambition: Doubling GDP in 20 Years”) where we will be in 2040. It may be a replay of a sad fate: knowing (some) where to go, but never getting there!

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Algeria interested in Portuguese companies investing in renewable energy – Observer



Algeria interested in Portuguese companies investing in renewable energy - Observer

Foreign Minister João Gomes Cravinho met this Wednesday with his Algerian counterpart Ramtan Lamamra, who expressed interest in Portuguese companies investing in Algeria’s solar and wind energy.

Speaking with Lusa, João Cravinho also said that for 2023 it was decided to hold a “high-level meeting chaired by the prime ministers” of the two countries, a meeting to be held in Algiers, in addition to the state visit of the President of Algeria. Algeria to Portugal.

The Portuguese foreign minister said today’s visit to Algeria, where he was with Ramtan Lamamra, whom he has known since 2005 when he was ambassador to Lisbon, is “based on old knowledge”, but also a visit to a country that “does not to be a neighbor”, shares “a lot of fears”. “Not being a neighboring country, it almost shares many concerns about the region, the Mediterranean, the European Union’s relationship with Africa and the Arab world. It was important for us to talk about what we can do together as part of the geopolitical and geo-economic transformation,” he explained.

João Cravinho stressed that the issue of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a factor “which could not but be the subject of dialogue”, and also added that “geo-economic issues related to energy, renewable energy sources and the opportunities that come with the digital transition” also were on the table.


“While Algeria is a major exporter of fossil fuels, it is also a country with huge potential in terms of solar and wind energy. We have very qualified companies in these areas, and the Algerian side has expressed interest in [ter] Portuguese investors in these areas,” the minister said.

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The official said that it would be a matter of working with the Portuguese Agency for Investment and Foreign Trade (AICEP), with the Secretary of State for Internationalization, as well as with a sectoral ministry, namely the Ministry of Environment and Climate Change. A “high-level meeting chaired by the prime ministers” of the two countries is scheduled for 2023, a meeting to be held in Algiers, in addition to the Algerian President’s state visit to Portugal.

“We have a very busy calendar between the two countries. Now we will try to organize a mixed commission, where technical specialists from both countries will gather,” he said, stressing that there are “14 legal documents that are practically finalized and will be signed” in 2023.

João Gomes Cravinho was on a visit to Algiers today to assess bilateral relations in the economic sphere, as well as in terms of cooperation, language and culture, and to discuss international issues.

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