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Remember Brexit? Why Britain can really struggle to get out of recession



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But Britain is also racing to a self-determined deadline to establish a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, the largest single market for exports, by the end of the year. The talks are not going well – increasing the likelihood of other major shocks such as an economic recovery that is expected to gain momentum.

“The whole world is progressing in recession because of coronavirus,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank. “But Britain has an additional problem in the UK-EU negotiations in the second half of this year.”

Even without considering the implications of Brexit, the British economy is in trouble.

The Bank of England said earlier this month that the economy could shrink 14% this year. That would be the biggest annual contraction since a 15% decline in 1706, based on the best estimate of the bank’s historical data. GDP could fall 25% in the three months to the end of June.

Data released by the British government in recent days has been dire. Claims for unemployment benefits jumped 69% to nearly 2.1 million last month. Inflation in April, meanwhile, fell for the third consecutive month to 0.8%, raising concerns that prices could enter a damaging downward spiral.

Non-essential restaurants and shops remain closed, and economists are not convinced that activities will be taken as soon as they are reopened.

The grim atmosphere was reflected on Wednesday when the British government sold its first bonds with negative results. This shows that demand is so high that investors are basically willing to pay the British government to lend money.

Gilts, as is known, is considered a safe haven asset, along with US, Japanese and German government bonds; Rising demand indicates that investors are worried that economic growth will remain depressed.

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“The market reflects the economic reality, namely that the economy has collapsed,” said Robert Wood, chief economist at the UK at Bank of America.

The British pound has fallen more than 8% since the beginning of the year to less than $ 1.22, and has also fallen more than 5% against Euro currency. That FTSE 100 (UKX) the index in London has lost more than 21% year-to-date, compared to nearly 9% for the S&P 500, while the FTSE 250 index of British medium-sized companies dropped by more than 26%.

Trying to stem extensive economic damage, the British government borrowed £ 62.1 billion ($ 75.7 billion) in April, the highest level since records began in 1993. The government now projects it will need to borrow £ 298.4 billion ($ 363 , 3 billion) until March 2021, almost double the height of the global financial crisis.

And Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey even hinted this week that official interest rates – currently 0.1% – could be negative for the first time in British history. His comments have prompted speculation that banks can choose negative interest rates by 2021, if the economy requires another injection.

“What the Bank of England has done is to abolish interest rate policies, so you can’t assume they won’t cut” below zero, “Wood said. “That said, clearly negative rates are one of the last resorts here.”

Brexit clock ticking

The risk they might need increases because British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has committed to break new British relations with the European Union by the end of 2020, after leaving the bloc in January.

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Failure to reach an agreement can expose British companies to steep new tariffs, threaten their supply chains and do so their products and services are more expensive at the worst time. Britain has until 30 June to request an extension of the deadline, but the Johnson government has consistently said it does not want to do this.

The conversation did not go well. Michel Barnier, head of the EU Brexit negotiator, said last week that he was “not optimistic” about reaching an agreement with Britain, adding that the European Union would increase preparations for this year to end without new trade conditions.

The head of Britain’s Brexit negotiator, David Frost, said in a letter to Barnier on Tuesday that the European Union offered “a relatively low-quality trade agreement.”

Without agreement, the industry has been hit hard the pandemic will be even worse.
David Henig, a former trade negotiator and director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, said in twitter Thursday that a 10% tariff for cars sent to the European Union will enter if an agreement is not reached, threatening at least £ 15 billion ($ 18.3 billion) in exports.

Pickering from Berenberg Bank is concerned that the running hours at the Brexit talks could create problems for Britain in the second half of the year, when economic growth is intended to take back.

Household spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP in the UK, will determine the trajectory of the UK recovery, he said. When the lockdown is over, the concern is that Britons will continue to save because of anxiety about their work or a second wave of infections, limiting the impact of government and central bank relief efforts.

Uncertainty related to Brexit will only encourage it exaggerated savings, according to Pickering.
British car sales fell 97% in the worst month since 1946

Even if Britain reaches a new trade agreement with the European Union, it is will not benefit like the old regime. Johnson pushed for an agreement that would allow Britain to also reach agreements with trading partners such as the United States.

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In a draft proposal released by the British government this week, Britain reiterated that it did not want to be part of the EU single market, and instead sought an agreement in accordance with what the bloc already had with Canada or Japan.

“The worsening of your trade terms with the aim of nearly half your exports will be an economic negative,” said Bank of America’s Wood. “[It’s] another reason to expect recovery from this crisis to be a very long U [shape], and not V. “

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar echoed this view on Thursday.

“Brexit will further complicate matters,” Varadkar said. “As I said a few months ago, Brexit isn’t over. It’s just halftime.”

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Thiago Monteiro in 14th and 15th before the arrival of the WTCR in Portugal – Observer



Thiago Monteiro in 14th and 15th before the arrival of the WTCR in Portugal - Observer

Portuguese driver Thiago Monteiro (Honda) finished 14th and 15th this Sunday in the two World Touring Car Cup (WTCR) races held in Aragon, Spain, which precede the Vila Real race.

The Portuguese rider always rode in the tail, he was hindered by the fact that Honda had more excess weight than his rivals.

“If they told me that I would be in this position, I would not believe it. But the reality is that we have not been able to withstand a number of adversities. From the moment when the pace is much lower than other rivals, we are prepared in advance. It’s heartbreaking,” the Portuguese rider began his explanation after the fourth round of the championship.

The Portuguese rider struggled to find the best balance in his Civic, as did his teammate, Hungarian Attila Tassi.


“We still had problems, and we could not reach the full potential of the car. It was very difficult, unpleasant and discouraging, especially since we are going to Vila Real and this scenario does not suit me. But we will have to continue to look for our own path and believe that everything will work out, ”Thiago Monteiro concluded.

Belgian Giles Magnus (Audi) and Spaniard Mikel Ascona (Hyundai) won both races on Sunday.

Ascona leads the league with 129 points, while Thiago Monteiro is 16th with 12 points.

The WTCR competition in Portugal will take place next weekend in Vila Real.

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Joao Almeida became the champion of Portugal in cycling



Joao Almeida became the champion of Portugal in cycling

This Sunday, Portuguese cyclist João Almeida (UAE-Emirates) became the Portuguese champion in cross-country cycling for the first time, winning the elite national championships held in Mogaduro.

In his first online race since Joao Almeida was forced to pull out of the Vuelta Italia after testing positive for the coronavirus, he won his first national title since becoming time trial champion in 2021.

Almeida crossed the finish line in Mogadora, covering the 167.5 km distance in 4:08.42 hours, 52 seconds behind Thiago Antunes (Efapel) second, Fabio Costa (Glassdrive-Q8-Anicolor) third, and Rui Oliveira (UAE). – Emirates), fourth.

In the end, João Almeida stated that he was “very pleased” with the victory, admitting that the race “went very well” and thanking his teammates.

Former national champion José Neves (W52-FC Porto) did not finish the race, as did Rafael Reis (Glassdrive-Q8-Anicolor) who won the time trial title on Friday.

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Portuguese military admits ‘it will take time’ until territory is taken under control



Portuguese military admits 'it will take time' until territory is taken under control

The “path” chosen for about a year in the fight against rebel groups in the province of Cabo Delgado in northern Mozambique is “the right one,” Brigadier General Nuno Lemos Pires said in an interview with Lusa.

“Now, while the situation is not fully under control, we all understand that, as in any other counter-terrorism situation in the world, it will take a lot of time,” added the head of the European military training mission, although he acknowledged that this “ does not mean that sometimes there are no fears and failures.

However, “this is part of what constitutes an action taken against terrorists who operate in a very wide area, who in themselves have the initiative and the ability to hide in a very wide area,” he said.

In fact, he stressed, many of the recent attacks that have taken place in the south of Cabo Delgado in recent weeks are due to the fact that Islamist extremist rebels had to “flight from the north” of the province.

“Because this was a consolidated military operation carried out in close cooperation between the Mozambique Defense and Security Forces (FSS), [e com as forças d]Rwanda and SAMIM (Southern African Development Community Mission (SADC) in Mozambique), who were clearing out the intervention areas that existed in the area, the reaction of many terrorists was to flee the area, go further south, where they were not pursued. , and make new attacks,” he explained.

“In such cases, the initiative almost always belongs to the terrorists. There are few of them, they hide among the population, they move over very large territories, with a lot of dense vegetation, it becomes very difficult to find them, but you can easily move,” he continued.

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On the other hand, the Portuguese general emphasized, “it is now difficult for these groups” “to concentrate power and forces for large-scale operations, as was the case three years ago during the conquests, such as Mocimboa da Praia or Palma.” ,” he said.

“They don’t have that ability. Many of these attacks even demonstrate [estratégias] survival [clássicas das guerrilhas]. They’re looking for food, they’re looking for supplies, they’re searching deep down for a place where they can survive, because the area is already under quite a lot of control. [por parte] Mozambique FSS, Rwandan forces and SAMIM,” he explained.

In this context, Nuno Lemos Pires highlighted the “quick response” of the Mozambican authorities to each of these developments, starting with head of state Filipe Nyusi.

“I think it is exemplary that the moment there is a movement or a series of significant attacks in other areas, we immediately see the President of Mozambique heading north, linking up with his Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces (CEMGFA). , with the Minister of Defense, with the Minister of the Interior, and outline plans on the ground for a quick change of equipment and the ability to respond to such movements,” he said.

During one such trip to northern Mozambique in mid-June, Mozambican Interior Minister Arsenia Massingue said that Mozambican police were informing the “enemy” – the rebel forces in Cabo Delgado – about the positions of the FDS and allied forces on the ground.

However, Lemos Pires downplayed the situation. “We must be aware that there are infiltrations in any political system. It’s happening everywhere. Ignoring this dimension is tantamount to ignoring what is happening everywhere,” he said.

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“I don’t know of a single case of insurgency, counterinsurgency, terrorist or counter-terrorist combat where these leaks didn’t happen frequently. You need to be careful. .

In addition to the vastness of the territory that has been the scene of conflict and the topography favorable to insurgent guerrilla strategies, the porous borders with Tanzania to the north of Cabo Delgado and Malawi to the northwest also pose a danger. challenges the SDF and allied forces of SAMIM and Rwanda.

Lemos Pires also relativized this question. “We are talking about transnational terrorism, and it is good to understand that the situation in the north of Mozambique, in Cabo Delgado, is not limited and is not limited – and has never been limited – exclusively and exclusively to this region. A phenomenon that exists throughout Africa. , namely in Central Africa,” he said.

The UETM commander even took advantage of this circumstance to formulate an “extended response” to “a broad problem, a regional one, and the solution must also be a broad regional one.”

Therefore, “it’s very good what we see here on the ground, in fact, this is the unification of the efforts of regional African forces to try to deal with a problem that really worries everyone,” he concluded.

“What happens in one region can affect another. That is why it is in everyone’s interest that these groups be fought, detained and that the narrative that they are currently spreading can be counteracted – we hope that there are fewer and fewer successes,” the Portuguese general stressed.


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