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Remember Brexit? Why Britain can really struggle to get out of recession



UK agriculture coronavirus Robertson pkg intl hnk vpx_00023821

But Britain is also racing to a self-determined deadline to establish a post-Brexit trade agreement with the European Union, the largest single market for exports, by the end of the year. The talks are not going well – increasing the likelihood of other major shocks such as an economic recovery that is expected to gain momentum.

“The whole world is progressing in recession because of coronavirus,” said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg Bank. “But Britain has an additional problem in the UK-EU negotiations in the second half of this year.”

Even without considering the implications of Brexit, the British economy is in trouble.

The Bank of England said earlier this month that the economy could shrink 14% this year. That would be the biggest annual contraction since a 15% decline in 1706, based on the best estimate of the bank’s historical data. GDP could fall 25% in the three months to the end of June.

Data released by the British government in recent days has been dire. Claims for unemployment benefits jumped 69% to nearly 2.1 million last month. Inflation in April, meanwhile, fell for the third consecutive month to 0.8%, raising concerns that prices could enter a damaging downward spiral.

Non-essential restaurants and shops remain closed, and economists are not convinced that activities will be taken as soon as they are reopened.

The grim atmosphere was reflected on Wednesday when the British government sold its first bonds with negative results. This shows that demand is so high that investors are basically willing to pay the British government to lend money.

Gilts, as is known, is considered a safe haven asset, along with US, Japanese and German government bonds; Rising demand indicates that investors are worried that economic growth will remain depressed.

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“The market reflects the economic reality, namely that the economy has collapsed,” said Robert Wood, chief economist at the UK at Bank of America.

The British pound has fallen more than 8% since the beginning of the year to less than $ 1.22, and has also fallen more than 5% against Euro currency. That FTSE 100 (UKX) the index in London has lost more than 21% year-to-date, compared to nearly 9% for the S&P 500, while the FTSE 250 index of British medium-sized companies dropped by more than 26%.

Trying to stem extensive economic damage, the British government borrowed £ 62.1 billion ($ 75.7 billion) in April, the highest level since records began in 1993. The government now projects it will need to borrow £ 298.4 billion ($ 363 , 3 billion) until March 2021, almost double the height of the global financial crisis.

And Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey even hinted this week that official interest rates – currently 0.1% – could be negative for the first time in British history. His comments have prompted speculation that banks can choose negative interest rates by 2021, if the economy requires another injection.

“What the Bank of England has done is to abolish interest rate policies, so you can’t assume they won’t cut” below zero, “Wood said. “That said, clearly negative rates are one of the last resorts here.”

Brexit clock ticking

The risk they might need increases because British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has committed to break new British relations with the European Union by the end of 2020, after leaving the bloc in January.

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Failure to reach an agreement can expose British companies to steep new tariffs, threaten their supply chains and do so their products and services are more expensive at the worst time. Britain has until 30 June to request an extension of the deadline, but the Johnson government has consistently said it does not want to do this.

The conversation did not go well. Michel Barnier, head of the EU Brexit negotiator, said last week that he was “not optimistic” about reaching an agreement with Britain, adding that the European Union would increase preparations for this year to end without new trade conditions.

The head of Britain’s Brexit negotiator, David Frost, said in a letter to Barnier on Tuesday that the European Union offered “a relatively low-quality trade agreement.”

Without agreement, the industry has been hit hard the pandemic will be even worse.
David Henig, a former trade negotiator and director of the UK Trade Policy Project at the European Center for International Political Economy, said in twitter Thursday that a 10% tariff for cars sent to the European Union will enter if an agreement is not reached, threatening at least £ 15 billion ($ 18.3 billion) in exports.

Pickering from Berenberg Bank is concerned that the running hours at the Brexit talks could create problems for Britain in the second half of the year, when economic growth is intended to take back.

Household spending, which makes up about 70% of GDP in the UK, will determine the trajectory of the UK recovery, he said. When the lockdown is over, the concern is that Britons will continue to save because of anxiety about their work or a second wave of infections, limiting the impact of government and central bank relief efforts.

Uncertainty related to Brexit will only encourage it exaggerated savings, according to Pickering.
British car sales fell 97% in the worst month since 1946

Even if Britain reaches a new trade agreement with the European Union, it is will not benefit like the old regime. Johnson pushed for an agreement that would allow Britain to also reach agreements with trading partners such as the United States.

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In a draft proposal released by the British government this week, Britain reiterated that it did not want to be part of the EU single market, and instead sought an agreement in accordance with what the bloc already had with Canada or Japan.

“The worsening of your trade terms with the aim of nearly half your exports will be an economic negative,” said Bank of America’s Wood. “[It’s] another reason to expect recovery from this crisis to be a very long U [shape], and not V. “

Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar echoed this view on Thursday.

“Brexit will further complicate matters,” Varadkar said. “As I said a few months ago, Brexit isn’t over. It’s just halftime.”

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In the last round of Portugal x Morocco was the decisive Cristiano Ronaldo and the Portuguese a la Gordon Banks.



In the last round of Portugal x Morocco was the decisive Cristiano Ronaldo and the Portuguese a la Gordon Banks.

Portugal and Morocco met in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup, and the Europeans won 1-0.

Portugal and Morocco will meet this Saturday (10) in the quarterfinals world Cup from Qatar. The last meeting between the two teams was in 2018, in the group stage of the World Cup held in Russia, and the Portuguese had the star of Cristiano Ronaldo and a brilliant performance by Rui Patricio to win the confrontation 1-0.

CR7 scored Portugal’s winning goal against Morocco in 2018 (Photo: FADEL SENNA/AFP)

Photo: Lance!

After scoring a hat-trick on his debut against Spain in 2018, CR7 went on a good phase and took four minutes to put the Portuguese team ahead against Atlas Lions. Four years later, the script changed for the Portuguese star, who was no longer unanimous in Portugal and lost the title to Gonçal Ramos, who scored a hat-trick against Switzerland.

Another notable figure for Portugal against Morocco in 2018 was goalkeeper Rui Patricio. The Africans dominated the match and had 15 submissions. In the 12th minute of the first half, the goalkeeper saved a header from Belanda in a move similar to Gordon Banks’ “save of the century” against Pelé in the 1970 World Cup.

In Qatar, Rui Patricio came on as a substitute and “passed the baton” to Diogo Costa, the 23-year-old who failed his debut but was an important figure in the Portuguese team’s campaign in the competition.

Frenchman Hervé Renard managed Morocco in Russia, a sensational manager in Qatar who managed to get Saudi Arabia to beat Argentina with one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history.

The winner of Portugal and Morocco will play either France or England in the semi-finals of the World Cup. The Portuguese have not been in the top four teams since the 2006 World Cup in Germany. On the other hand, the Atlas Lions want to be the first African team to reach the semi-finals of the Cup.

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Portuguese government to allocate 30 million euros to help Ukrainian refugees in Poland – Cidade Hoje



Portuguese government to allocate 30 million euros to help Ukrainian refugees in Poland – Cidade Hoje

The City Council of Santo Tirso today returned to Desportivo das Aves the Portuguese Football Cup trophy won in the 2017/2018 season, which the municipality bought at an auction two months ago for 30,000 euros.

“This was an injustice that our own justice wanted to bring up for discussion, but it needs to be reconsidered. It is disgusting that there are legal aspects that prevent the title from passing into the hands of others when it has been very well won on the field. The city council did only what it was responsible for, which is to keep the heritage of the population, the club and the land in the right place, ”Mayor Alberto Costa repeated to reporters.

The handover of the scepter took place on the full lawn of the CD Aves stadium, in Vila das Aves, between the winning reception of Desportivo das Aves 1930 in favor of Rio de Moinhos (3-1), in the 13th round of the 4th Series of the Football Association Division of Honor Porto.

Conquered on 20 May 2018 by beating Sporting CP in the final of the Queen’s competition (2-1) at the Estadio Nacional in Oeiras, the trophy was laid in the context of northern South Africa’s insolvency, having been put up for public auction from August to October.

A “double” by Alexandre Guedes against a goal from Colombian Fredy Montero “sealed” the unprecedented success of “Avences”, then managed by José Mota, just five days after the invasion of the Accademia de Alcochete, where supporters attacked several “Leonin players”.

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“The City Council of Santo Tirso did this out of respect for those who were on the field, after a week when it seemed that Desportivo das Aves did not exist. I returned to what I did in good conscience as mayor. We took care of the formal aspects so that what happened would not happen again, ”admitted Alberto Costa.

The ceremony was attended by the footballers, technicians and other staff involved in winning the Portuguese Cup, whose scepter was carried by the then goalkeeper and “captain” Kim and striker Alexandre Guedes on the pitch to be symbolically handed over by the mayor to the newly appointed sworn-in president of the Vila das Aves club, Pedro Pereira.

“Feeling is what you felt in the stadium. There was gratitude for the most important achievement in our history, which also marked the beginning of the renaissance that we are striving for, in order for the club to return to the heights that it has reached in the past. The Portuguese Cup is well placed. The legal departments have tried to ensure that this is not going anywhere,” said successor António Freitas.

The auction was held by the Judicial Court of Comarca Porto and ended exactly two months ago, setting a minimum threshold of 1360 euros, set at an initial price of 800 euros and a base price of 1600 euros. trophy.

The greatest achievement of Desportivo das Aves was arrested by the SAD in July 2020 when the Chinese-led administration Wei Zhao failed to fulfill the licensing requirements in the professional competition of the 2020/21 season with the Clubs League and rejected an appeal to the Council of the Referee of the Portuguese Football Federation.

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The Nordics had already been relegated to the II League, but “fell” by administrative means in the Campeonato de Portugal, then in the third national level due to wage arrears and unilateral layoffs of players, technical staff and employees.

SAD, which also witnessed the confiscation of two Desportivo das Aves buses, decided to withdraw from the Portuguese Championship in September 2020, five months before the Santo Tirso District Judicial Court declared it insolvent.

Almost €37,500 debts from SAD to three foreign clubs resulted in FIFA preventing the club from signing new players since August 2020, but two months later, António Freitas’ management decided to recreate the futsal and football sections that began to represent the new club. called Desportivo das Aves 1930.

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IBGE has already conducted a census of almost 80% of the Brazilian population – Português (Brazil)



Mutirão Opens To Negotiation Of Individuals' Overdue Debts - Português (Brazil)

Almost 80% of Brazil’s population is already registered this year. From the beginning of work, from August 1 to December 5, 168,018,345 people were registered, in 59,192,875 households, which corresponds to 78.73% of the estimated population of the country. The data is taken from the fourth balance sheet of the 2022 demographic census released this Wednesday (December 7) by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGS).

Of the total number of respondents, the majority live in the Southeast region, 39.54%, followed by the Northeast (29.43%), South (14.76%), North (8.79%) and Midwest (7 .44%). So far, 48.4% of the census population was male and 51.6% female.

According to IBGE, the state with the highest proportion of registered people to estimated population is Piauí (96.2%), followed by Sergipe (91.2%) and Rio Grande do Norte (89.8%). The least advanced are Mato Grosso (65.9%), Amapa (66.9%) and Espirito Santo (70.67%).

In the case of Sergipe and Piaui, BIGE has already completed the first phase of data collection, with census takers traveling around the state visiting addresses. The institute will now begin the process of restoring homes that were registered for absent residents and those that people refused to respond to the census.

So far, about 2.59% of households have refused to respond, but IBGE expects to reduce this percentage by the end of the operation after all persistence protocols have been applied.

States that are close to completing collection will also be able to count on Disque-Censo, a free service available from 8:00 am to 9:30 pm. Those who have not been visited by census takers can call the agency at 137 and take part in the survey. At the moment, the service is only available in the states of Sergipe and Piauí.

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In this balance sheet, BIGE discloses for the first time general census data in subnormal agglomerations, defined as “irregular occupation of land for residential purposes in urban areas and which are generally characterized by irregular urban structure, lack of basic public services and being in areas with limited access”. Until December 5, 12,337,295 people lived in the country, which is about 7% of the registered population.

In addition, 1,489,003 natives and 1,208,702 quilombolas have already been registered.

The institute is facing difficulties due to a lack of staff to conduct censuses in some locations. Throughout the country, from November 28 to December 4, 60,611 enumerators worked at IBGS, which is 33.1% of the total number of available vacancies.

Census takers will always be in uniform, with an IBGE vest, census cap, ID badge, and a mobile data collection device (DMC). In addition, it is possible to verify the identity of the IBGS agent in website By answering IBGE or calling 0800 721 8181.

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