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Biden goes ahead of the 2016 Clinton pace



Former US Vice President Joe Biden speaks during the First State Democratic Dinner in Dover, Delaware, on March 16, 2019.

What is the point: Almost every time I explain that Biden is leading Trump, someone will definitely bring up “but what about 2016.” That’s why this week marks an important milestone for the Biden campaign.

This was one of the first times during an election year that Biden was clearly running ahead of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 speed in the fight against Trump.

Four years ago, Trump closed national gap quickly with Clinton when he conquered Republican opponents Ted Cruz and John Kasich from the presidential election. Clinton’s average advantage shrank from 10 points during the first half of April to 6 points in the second half of April to 4 points in the first half of May to only 1 point in a poll that was completed four years ago between May 16 to May 23.
In terms of high quality individual polls, you don’t need to look any further than Fox News. Clinton trailed Trump with 3 points in a Fox News poll came out four years ago between May 16 – May 23. Now, Biden is up 8 points in the same poll.
Indeed, Clinton also uses high-quality direct telephone ABC News / Washington Post poll four years ago it was finished between May 16 – May 23.

Biden in particular has not participated in a direct interview poll so far this year.

Even though Clinton will regain some of his profits in June 2016, the fact that the race got very close at this point four years ago is an indication that voters are rather nervous. This shows that under the right circumstances, Clinton could lose nationally, or, at the very least, that Trump could become close enough nationally to win in an election college.

Biden’s superiority, of course, is the most stable of all time. His superiority never fell to a point or anywhere near. It’s been consistent at or right around 6 points, like this week. If you make a 95% confidence interval around the 2016 and 2020 individual polls, the 2016 race is about 1.5 times more volatile to date.

But it’s not only margins that are important to check. Look at the percentage of votes.

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The reason why Biden’s advantage is so vast compared to Clinton’s is because he ran a little more than 5 points ahead of where Clinton was in terms of percentage of votes. Biden is slightly greater than 48%, while Clinton is slightly less than 43%.

Even when Clinton’s leadership widened in June, he never reached 48% in the polls. He had to take on more voters who were late in deciding that their leaders felt safe than Biden.

Interestingly, Trump actually drew around the same percentage of votes in the poll as at the end of May 2016. Without rounding, he only walked around 0.4 points worse.

There are many voters who have not yet voted or a third party at the end of May 2016. Without rounding, Biden and Trump add up to 89.5% of the vote on average. Clinton and Trump increased to 84.9%.

Keep in mind, only a few of the polls conducted four years ago were completed between May 16 – May 23 including Libertarian Gary Johnson as an option. Focusing only on those who did vote showed Clinton and Trump deadlocked just under 39%. That is, Trump is tied to Clinton even because he has a lower share of votes than he has in the 2020 poll now. Major party candidates together add up to 77% to the poll asking about Johnson.

When elections have not been decided and third parties are high in the polls, that means greater uncertainty. Third-party candidates tend to deflate during the election year. Combining third-party and undecided voter blocks gives large party candidates larger groups to take voters from.
In other words, Trump had more room four years ago to take over. And, in fact, Trump won over the strength of his support among voters who voted last month.

More Americans have said that they are willing to vote for Biden in the most likely electoral battle than they ever did against Clinton at any point in the last six months of the campaign.

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The obvious question moving forward is whether Biden can follow suit. So far, he and his basement campaign face challenges.

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Portuguese traveling the world on a minimoto will meet Ramos Horta on Timor – Observer



Portuguese traveling the world on a minimoto will meet Ramos Horta on Timor – Observer

The young Portuguese, who has been traveling the world on a mini-motorcycle since 2020, will arrive in Timor-Leste on Monday and meet with the country’s president, the motorcyclist said on Wednesday.

With a residence in Oliveira de Azemeis, in the Aveiro region, and starting his journey in Avis, in Portalegre, André Souza left Portugal on July 12, 2020 to try for a world record, and since then he has driven over 55,000 kilometers through 40 countries, always on a Honda Monkey 125 with nine horses and a height of 70 centimeters.

The 26-year-old is currently based in Darwin, Australia, and it was there that he met two United Nations lawyers who, after working for several years in Timor and personal with Jose Ramos Hortarecognized in the Portuguese trip the type of gamble that would have interested the current president of Timor, the 1996 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

This friendly couple took care of everything, connected us, and now it was agreed with Ramos Horta’s adviser that I would meet with the president on August 23, although without a motorcycle, which leaves Australia only by boat on the 24th and will not be. arrive on time to appear in the photo,” says Andre Souza Luce from Darwin.


The absence of a car at an official meeting does not prevent the motorcyclist from admitting with satisfaction: “Once I realized that I could drive Timor, it became a dream. I wanted to get to know the country that was a former Portuguese colony, and especially I wanted to get to know Ramos Horta for everything he did for the independence of this land.”

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Initiallypassage through Timor was not planned in the Ride That Monkey project, but became part of the scenario when the direction of the trip had to be changed to get around the fact that in mid-2020 most international borders were still closed or severe mobility restrictions were imposed due to Covid-19.

The idea was to go directly from Europe to Asia, but I had to change the direction of travel and start from America. That is why now, being in Australia and so close to Timor, I decided to go there and through Indonesia before heading to Malaysia and Thailand, ”explains the Portuguese.

Myanmar, India, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey and “some countries in North Africa” ​​are the next destinations, so travel effectively cross “all the continents of the globe” before returning to Portugal scheduled for May or June 2023.

Meanwhile in Darwin, Andre Sousa continues to recover from injuries sustained in his back after he was hit by a truck in California, USA, which left him there for two months. The problem was alleviated with physical therapy and required regular medication, but the pain worsened in Australia after several days of consecutive desert crossings between Cairns and Darwin, covering a total of 2,500 kilometers.

A young Portuguese man traveling the world on a mini-motorcycle is injured in the US.

I had to lie in bed for a week, completely motionless, and now I am accompanied by a chiropractor who has already offered me three consultations for $ 110 each as support for the project,” emphasizes Andre Souza.

The motorcyclist also notes that the trip turned out to be “much more expensive than expected”, due to the difficulties associated with the pandemic and unforeseen health problems. The accident in the United States, for example, involved two months of commercial residence in the Beverly Hills area, where “the simplest hamburger cost at least 10 euros” and, just to transport a motorcycle and driver from Santiago de Chile to Sydney, “the cost was 6000”, in addition to the cost of “a number of documents” that the Australian authorities require when crossing from Darwin to Timor.

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Facing these and other budget changes was only possible thanks to the sponsors of the project and the “donations and support of many different people from all over the world” – as in the case of a Portuguese family that this week welcomes André Sousa to Darwin and 40 subscribers from different countries who donated 50 or 100 euros in exchange for having their name engraved on the minimoto’s fuel tank.

In the next stages of the journey through Asia and Africa, “there will be even more bureaucracy”, but in order to reduce the cost of accommodation and food, the young man will strive to circulate through areas where Portuguese emigrants live what they can get. André Sousa admits that he was welcomed mostly by foreigners, but he does not hide his preference: “I always like to stay with the Portuguese. They do everything they can to help me and make my life easier, and when we’re together, it’s like coming home for a while.”

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″We are not at the time when the Portuguese come here and discover football″



″We are not at the time when the Portuguese come here and discover football″

The writing

Abel Ferreira has already earned some criticism from Cookie, and now the tone has especially risen after a conference with Atlético Goianiense coach Jorginho.

In Brazil, they continue to discuss Abel’s trip to the locker room in the quarter-final match against Libertadores. Jorginho, the coach of Atlético Goianiense, who has already criticized the Portuguese coach, explained what would happen if the Brazilian team’s technical leader showed the same behavior.

“If a Brazilian coach went into the dressing room to listen to music during a penalty kick, he would be called a coward. But when he wins, nothing happens, everything is right,” he said in press statements.

Jorginho raised his tone and delivered a more general criticism of the Portuguese coach, recalling that football had already been invented in Brazil and that the reigning two-time South American champion had a tougher job ahead of him.

“Abel is a very good coach, period. The question of his abilities is not discussed. It is discussed, especially in this situation, that he did not discover football. football! What happened to Jorge Jesus was extraordinary, what happens to Abel too, but that’s because they have a team like Flamengo and Palmeiras. I want to see him do what he does here at Atlético Goianiense. Come here to become the champion of Brazil,” he explained.

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Francisco J. Marques: “It seems that the evil of Portuguese football is the behavior of the FC Porto bank…” – FC Porto



Francisco J. Marques: "It seems that the evil of Portuguese football is the behavior of the FC Porto bank..." - FC Porto

Dragons Communications Director Thinks Judges Are Overzealous

Francisco J. Márquez once again criticized the strict actions of the refereeing teams against the FC Porto bank, especially Sergio Conceição, citing as an example what happened in Wiesel compared to what happened in Casa Pia Benfica. The Communications Director of FC Porto considered it an exaggeration how the referees penalize the banks. “The strange thing is what is happening, it seems that the evil of Portuguese football is the behavior of the banks, especially FC Porto. It’s a bit strange that after two days of announcing the new recommendation, this so-called zero tolerance is limited to the Porto FC bench, when in the Casa Pia Benfica game we saw the reaction of the Benfica bench. I think it’s nothing to worry about, it’s normal in any championship, but with zero tolerance for these people should be warned. In the case of a yellow card, Sergio Conceição in Wiesel, the rules were strictly observed because he left the technical area, one can warn with a yellow card, but how many times the coaches leave the technical area “Jorge Jesus played on touch line as if he were a full back I admit that Sergio Conceição left a little technical area but this whole situation does not make sense, let’s hope that common sense will prevail and not force unnatural behavior There are players, coaches and managers who live the game intensively, there are different views on the game, I think that what is happening is a clear exaggeration and this needs to be edit,” Francisco J. Marquez said in an interview with Porto. Channel. .

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