California’s unemployment rate nearly tripled from mid-March to mid-April because the country lost many jobs in all sectors of its economy.
The April unemployment rate jumped to 15.5%, up from 5.5% a month earlier, sweeping past the peak of the Great Recession of 12.3% a decade ago, state officials reported Friday.
Employers in the country’s most populous state lost 2.3 million unprecedented jobs in just a month, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic that has made more than 88,000 Californians sick and caused more than 3,600 deaths in the state so far .
The Golden State unemployment rate is higher than the national level of 14.7%, which reflects California’s dependence on tourism, hospitality and entertainment businesses. To slow the spread of the corona virus, state and local governments shut down many of the businesses, and consumers who fear contracting the virus are hesitant to protect the rest.
“The rate of job loss is truly amazing,” said chief economist Scott Anderson of the Bank of the West in San Francisco. “We are basically wiping out job creation for a decade in a month and a half. I don’t think the size of the shock really hit people. “
And the pain will get worse. The unemployment data includes only workers who lost their jobs and were looking for work. But given the economic collapse, many do not see. In addition, since last month’s salary survey, which charted jobs until the week of April 12, California has seen 1.4 million new jobless claims, totaling 5.1 million, the California Department of Labor Development reported Thursday.
Given the new claims, the country’s unemployment rate is likely to reach 23% in May – about the level expected to peak during the Great Depression of the 1930s, Anderson said. “We are in uncharted territory.”
In addition, the coronavirus blow to the economy caused a decrease in tax revenues collected by state and local governments. If the federal government does not take steps with massive aid, economists warn, it will likely trigger a new wave of layoffs that affect public sector jobs.
JPMorgan Chase: Truly Heroic (NYSE:JPM)
Prepared by Stephanie, Analyst at BAD BEAT Investing
Those who follow our exclusive chat room frequently know that we said financials were going to face pressure, but there was only one that we fully endorsed while everyone else was negative. This was, of course, the best-of-breed JPMorgan Chase (JPM). We are frequently asked about banks, along with hundreds of other stocks a week, in our group. We have been clear – stay away from the other banks short term, but consider JPM. On the downside, we have very low rates. We also have strong risks from loan forbearance, mortgage deferrals, and straight-up defaults weighing on the sector. But we have felt the name was a good buy from $80-85. This market gave you multiple chances to get in. While real economic data weighs, the company truly put out a heroic quarter, showing why it is dominant. But it was not all good news. Relative to its competition, it was impressive. Let us discuss. We remain bullish and think it is a solid stock to not only trade but to invest in the long term, which is why we want to scale in.
Headline numbers impress
JPMorgan had a tremendous quarter when it came to the headlines versus historic performance, but relative to expectations, was heroic. No one really knew where it would come in. Overall, the headline numbers reflected the pain of the COVID-19 crisis, which has led to reduced demand and changing banking activity from the norm, but it trounced expectations. Of course, after a near-50% drop from peak to trough in the stock, well, we can see the market priced in disaster. Q2 was better than expected, but Q3 could see the pain continue, at least operationally. Managed revenue was $32.9 billion, up about 15% year over year. This was above our expectations for $30 billion by nearly $3 billion. This continues a pattern of strong growth in Q2 revenues over the last several years:
Source: SEC Filings, graphics by BAD BEAT Investing
What a result. We obviously had been ratcheting down our expectations for the year. The same thing happened with analysts. The competition has struggled. But JPM hit a home run. Revenues were eye-popping. It was not all sunshine and roses here though. Operational expenses were hiked by 4% from a year ago, while provisions for credit losses were atrocious, at a massive $10.5 billion versus an average $1.5 billion in each of the last 3 quarters of 2019. It was also up from Q1 2020’s $8.2 billion. This offset the massive revenues, and EPS showed a reduction from last year’s Q2:
Source: SEC Filings, graphics by BAD BEAT Investing
In last year’s Q2, the company saw earnings per share of $2.83, or $9.6 billion total. The result this quarter beat our expectations for $1.10 by $0.28, and that was with us expecting $30 billion in revenues and not nearly as many credit losses. Let us delve a bit into the major income metrics.
Interest and non-interest income
So those who follow our work know that when looking at a bank, we like to look at both of the major classifications of income. Oftentimes, they are dichotomous, with growth in one area and contraction in others.
That said, JPMorgan’s performance reflected such a dichotomy in these metrics. Over the years, the trend is higher for both measures. In the present quarter, non-interest income spiked a massive 33% to $19.1 billion. This was a result of a ton of client trading activity.
Net interest income had grown for years, but now we are seeing the impact from rates. This quarter, net interest income was flat versus last year. The pace of growth has slowed down due to rates. It came in at $13.8 billion, down 4%, which was not as bad as we thought. The impact of rate cuts did not weigh like we thought. We do have to point out that assets under management increased to $2.5 trillion from last year and was up 12% from just 3 months ago. Huge trading was taking place. As assets under management continue to grow, it is important to look at any movements in the company’s provision for credit losses. And the provisions were quite jaw-dropping.
Loan growth continues along with provisions for credit losses
We saw continued growth in the loan portfolio from last year, as total loans were up 2% from last year. With rising loans, we need to be mindful of possible credit losses, and believe me, those losses were huge.
Provisions for credit losses were up from last year drastically, but even before COVID-19, things had been volatile, and provisions had risen over time. But what we saw here was crazy. When provisions expand, we are cautious because it may mean the company is making risky loans, or borrowers may not be able to pay. In this case, it is the latter – with all of the unemployment creeping up, and with small businesses not having revenue, businesses closed. The results are bearish for the economy and the consumer’s health, but the bank will do well in the medium term.
Normally, we watch this as a measure for loan safety. Please note that this does not mean there will be losses, we just like to note how much is being set aside.
Much of the reserves are in the consumer portfolios, where much of the new loan activity is ongoing. The company entered this crisis in a position of strength, and it still remains well-capitalized and highly liquid with total liquidity resources of over $1 trillion.
While it is tightening some lending criteria, in the second quarter, the underlying results of the company were extremely good. However, given the likelihood of a fairly severe recession, it was necessary to build credit reserves resulting in total credit costs of $10.5 billion for the quarter. The provision was intentional but far beyond what we expected. We thought they would be about flat from Q1 2020.
Highly efficient bank
One metric that has not seen improvement over the last few years is the efficiency ratio, but again, it doesn’t really matter because the bank is highly efficient.
The efficiency ratio looks at the costs expended to generate a dollar of revenue. This metric has long been attractive for JPM. As a whole, JPMorgan Chase has seen its efficiency ratio remain solid, and this quarter put in the best we have ever seen for this metric for JPM at 51%. Lower is better, of course. We have generally stuck with a textbook target of about 50% for this critical indicator, so JPMorgan’s 51% efficiency demonstrates another reason why it is the best.
There is little doubt that JPMorgan Chase produced strong results here. The company spent the quarter positioning for a recession, playing defense. It got a huge boost from credit and wealth management. Besides the virus, there remain complex geopolitical issues, and global growth now is a major concern. However, this virus issue will not last. It will be a few more quarters of pain, and the economic issues will largely last through the end of the year.
The company still has a fortress-like balance sheet and is positioned to defend itself in coming quarters. We always contend that in the long term, the ups and downs of the stock don’t matter, and you should look to buy a quality company at a fair price. We have a high-quality company here that is at a discount, even with EPS taking it on the chin for a few quarters. It is a winner long term. You should be scaling in on declines. Don’t buy all at once, let the market inevitably give you better pricing.
This is a key difference between being a winner and a loser.
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Disclosure: I am/we are long JPM. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Trump White Property ‘Down to Kool-Help Drinkers and Future of Kin’
CNN White House correspondent Jim Acosta tore into President Donald Trump’s marketing campaign-like Rose Yard speech on Tuesday night, saying the explanation no one in the White Home stopped it is since the team is “down to Kool-Help drinkers and up coming of kin.”
In what was to begin with billed as a press meeting to announce China sanctions, the president rapidly veered off into a rambling stream-of-consciousness rant that echoed just one of his rally performances. Repeatedly attacking presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, Trump aired a collection of grievances and characterized Democrats as hating America so substantially that they “wouldn’t mind” if terrorists blew up their metropolitan areas.
“Presidents do not use the Rose Back garden in that form of bare political vogue,” he additional. “That was not a press convention, as the WH explained it. It was a marketing campaign rally disguised as a press conference. It was a bait and switch.”
Hours later on, Acosta appeared on anchor Anderson Cooper’s method to go over the presser, which Cooper described as a “meandering screed” that demonstrates “how numb we are” for the reason that we no for a longer time obtain it surprising.
Immediately after blasting Trump for peddling far more lies about the coronavirus pandemic that is killed approximately 140,000 Us residents, the CNN anchor puzzled aloud if there was any individual in the administration who could steer Trump absent from these spectacles.
“No, Anderson, we’re down to Kool-Aid drinkers and future of kin in this article at the Trump White Property,” the reporter snarked in response. “There are no more older people that will degree with the president and convey to him he simply cannot supply a rally-like rant in the Rose Back garden as he did previously.”
Acosta went on to say that one particular of the reasons most networks no for a longer time have the president’s rallies is since he cannot be relied upon to notify the reality, incorporating that Trump experienced taken a location intended to be no cost of presidential politics and “plunged it headfirst into a cesspool of campaign politicking.”
Immediately after reporting on some of the lowlights of the speech, the CNN correspondent reiterated that there was no one in the White House who would “rein him in,” including that he thinks Trump will continue to make the most of the Rose Garden as a rally room.
Trump employs Rose Back garden as substitute rally venue in onslaught from Biden
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – President Donald Trump utilised a White House occasion on China to excoriate his predicted Democratic presidential rival, Joe Biden, on Tuesday in a rambling diatribe that turned the Rose Back garden placing into a substitute rally venue, minus his supporters.
U.S. President Donald Trump attends a news convention in the Rose Backyard at the White Residence in Washington, U.S., July 14, 2020. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
The Republican president, who trails Biden in national view polls, has chafed at his lack of ability to keep huge political gatherings simply because of the coronavirus pandemic.
His marketing campaign postponed an out of doors rally scheduled for last Saturday in New Hampshire, citing a tropical storm off the East Coast. An indoor rally he held in Tulsa, Oklahoma, previous month highlighted a partly vacant arena.
So on a working day when Biden unveiled a $2 trillion climate approach throughout a speech in Delaware, Trump took to a podium outside the house the Oval Office and, following saying moves to punish China for its remedy of Hong Kong, criticized the former vice president and sought to attract a distinction involving their two candidacies.
“Today, Joe Biden gave a speech in which he said that the core of his economic agenda is a difficult-left crusade towards American strength. He would like to destroy American electrical power,” Trump stated.
Biden’s plan, which would find to slash carbon emissions from electrical energy creation to zero in 15 years, signified a far more intense technique on climate plan than he adopted through the Democratic presidential nominating race in a nod to get together progressives who are demanding bolder action.
“When Donald Trump thinks about weather alter, the only word he can muster is ‘hoax,’” Biden mentioned. “When I imagine about local climate improve, the phrase I feel of is ‘jobs.’ Excellent-shelling out union jobs that set People in america to do the job.”
Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris local climate accord to battle climate adjust. Biden options to convey the country back in if he is elected in November.
“Yet a person a lot more gift from Biden to the Chinese Communist Bash,” Trump explained. He sees the accord as favorable to Beijing.
The dueling situations amongst the incumbent president and the person who hopes to replace him could depict a prelude to how their strategies do gatherings in the time of the coronavirus, scheduling far more speeches with reporters present but no substantial crowds.
Trump took a handful of questions in his about hour-prolonged party. The president created small reference to the coronavirus despite a surging selection of circumstances across the state.
Biden, who spoke for some 20 minutes, took no questions.
‘LONG-WINDED Campaign RALLY’
Trump painted Biden as ineffective in a host of unique policy places all through his eight decades in business as President Barack Obama’s No. 2 and during a long time in the U.S. Senate.
He knocked Biden’s stances on the U.S. armed service, immigration, welfare and China.
Employing a system that his campaign experienced sought to use right before the pandemic and its economic fallout eaten the region, Trump emphasised socialism by portray Biden as tied carefully to guidelines advocated by his former rival for the nomination, Senator Bernie Sanders.
“Last week, Joe Biden released his unity system created with socialist Bernie Sanders,” Trump stated. “The Biden-Sanders agenda is the most extraordinary platform of any important-get together nominee, by much, in American background.”
Biden desires to attraction to left-leaning supporters of Sanders, who identifies as a democratic socialist.
The Democratic Countrywide Committee known as Trump’s occasion a rally.
“Trump turned what was intended to be a Rose Back garden speech on keeping China accountable into a meandering, nonsensical, and extended-winded campaign rally that we only hope the American folks were being looking at,” it stated.
Reporting by Jeff Mason Additional reporting by Eric Beech, Mohammad Zargham and Steve Holland Editing by Peter Cooney
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