This is the result of 2021, ahead of the budget and the dissolution of the Assembly of the Republic [AR]Will Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa give a more central place in politics next year?
In the case of Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, there are several factors that contribute to its central position: we had a minority government and, as of 2019, there were no agreements that minimally stabilized the approval of budgets; then – the “political style” of great presidential activity from the beginning of the first term. Proof of the central role of the president of the republic was the decision to hold early elections: strengthening the central role in the current context of Portuguese semi-presidential rule is difficult. Assuming there is no absolute majority in one party, the president will be more at the center of political life. An overwhelming majority would be the only scenario in which this central position would diminish.
Do you foresee such a scenario of an absolute majority in one party?
No. Recently, there has been a tendency in Portuguese democracy to have an absolute majority in one party. But the scenarios are varied. If there is a coalition government with a parliamentary majority on the right, the role of the president is formally reduced. If there is a minority government, the president will try to exercise his political influence and bargaining power so that parliament has a government with stable majority support.
